Continuous-Time Stochastic Processes with Cyclical Long-Range Dependence

This paper introduces continuous‐time random processes whose spectral density is unbounded at some non‐zero frequencies. The discretized versions of these processes have asymptotic properties similar to those of discrete‐time Gegenbauer processes. The paper presents some properties of the covariance function and spectral density as well as a theory of statistical estimation of the mean and covariance function of such processes. Some directions for further generalizations of the results are indicated.     

Do close parent-child relations reduce the mortality risk of older parents?

This analysis examines the association between affectional solidarity in older parent-child relationships, and the parents' length of survival over a 14-year interval. It is hypothesized that close intergenerational relations have the capacity to reduce pathogenic stress among elderly parents, thereby enhancing their ability to survive. Direct and buffering effects of affectional solidarity, as expressed by 439 elderly parents, are tested using data from the U.S.C. Longitudinal Study of Generations collected between 1971 and 1985. Buffering effects are examined in the context of social decline and social loss experienced by the older parent. Hazard regression models indicate that greater intergenerational affect increases survival time among parents who experienced a loss in their social network, particularly among those who were widowed less than five years. Neither a direct effect of affection nor a buffering effect in the presence of social decline were found. It is concluded that the mortal health risks associated with the stress of being widowed can be partially offset by affectionate relations with adult children.     

原"亚洲虎"人口出生率的下降

本文所指称的“亚洲虎”(ＡｓｉａｎＴｉｇｅｒｓ)的概念指的是香港、印度尼西亚、日本、马来西亚、菲律宾、新加坡、韩国、台湾和泰国等亚洲国家和地区。自亚洲金融危机以来 ,这些国家和地区的人口出生率均有不同程度的下降 ,而出生率下降的主要原因是经济衰退和金融危机 ,这一点是显而易见的。1 997年夏天 ,许多亚洲国家和地区的经济形势突然发生了逆转。在日本 ,1 998年和 1 999年的失业率已达到了自 1 95 3年以来的最高水平。1 999年 ,日本破产倒闭的私营企业与 1 997年相比又多出 5 0 %。随着人均收入的降低 ,日本国内的零售额也急剧减…     

Group therapy for the elderly: One approach to coping

Weekly group therapy sessions for depressed older adults form the core of a project sponsored by four Aurora (Colorado) agencies. The concept evolved from a health clinic where clients requested more assistance with emotional problems than could be provided by existing personnel. The purpose is to enhance, or at least maintain, the individuals' capacities despite change and loss. Now in its fourth year, over 100 clients have been served. This article describes the project's longitudinal measurement of the severity of depression of the participants and a comparison sample at specific intervals.     

A Berry–Esséen Bound for M-estimators

We prove a Berry–Esséen bound for general M-estimators under optimal regularity conditions on the score function and the underlying distribution. As an application we obtain Berry–Esséen bounds for the sample median, the L_p -median, p > 1 and Huber's estimator of location     

The Pomp of Power: Black Mayoralties in Urban America*

Objectives. Although urban scholarship has come to better understand the dynamics of black political incorporation in the United States, to date scant empirical attention has been paid to an important element of minority representation in local politics—the rise of black mayors. The present study addresses this gap in the extant literature. Methods. We analyze incidences of black mayoralties by fitting standard pooled and random effects probit models to a panel of 309 cities observed between 1971 and 2000. Results. Although cities' racial profiles are strongly associated with the incidence of black mayoralties, black representation on city council, black educational attainment, and reformed governments increase the odds of black mayoral emergence. On the other hand, southern location continues to depress the rise of black mayoralties, as do partisan elections, particularly in cities where no racial group constitutes a majority. Conclusions. Although our results partially confirm extant research on the diffusion of black mayoralties in American urban politics, they also call into question conventional wisdom. Our study emphasizes the need for more large‐N studies of minority representation in urban politics and provides suggestions for how the independent effects of black mayors on municipal policy outcomes might subsequently be analyzed empirically.