MODELS FOR OPTIMAL LEAD TIME REDUCTION

Most inventory and production planning models in the academic literature treat lead times either as constants or random variables with known distributions outside of management control. However, a number of recent articles in the popular press have argued that reducing lead times is a dominant issue in manufacturing strategy. The benefits of reducing customer lead times that are frequently cited include increased customer demand, improved quality, reduced unit cost, lower carrying cost, shorter forecast horizon, less safety stock inventory, and better market position. Although the costs of reducing lead times in the long term may be relatively insignificant compared with the benefits, in the short term these costs can have a significant impact on the profitability of a firm. This article develops a conceptual framework within which the costs and benefits of lead time reduction can be compared. Mathematical models for optimal lead time reduction are developed within this framework. The solutions to these models provide methods for calculating optimal lead times, which can be applied in practice. Sensitivity analysis of the optimal solutions provides insight into the structure of these solutions.     

Learning About the Candidates: The 1976 Presidential Debates

In this study of the 1976 televised Carter-Ford debates, theauthors find that the debates produced a heightened politicalawareness in viewers in the critical days just prior to theelection. The information obtained from the debates focusedlargely on candidate competence, performance and personalityattributes rather than on issues, but some increase in informationon issues and policies can be linked to the debates. The majorimpact of the debates may have been to reinforce partisan predispositions.Arthur H. Miller is a Senior Study Director at the Center forPolitical Studies, Institute for Social Research, and AssociateProfessor of Political Science, University of Michigan. MichaelMacKuen is an Assistant Professor of Political Science, WashingtonUniversity in St. Louis, Missouri.     

Reshaping Social Work Authorities in Scotland

Correspondence to Neil McGarvey and Arthur Midwinter, Department of Government, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow G1 1XQ Summary This article examines the assumptions and arguments underpinningthe case that the Government has made for reorganizing Scottishsocial work authorities. In particular the argument that thereforms will enhance both efficiency and accountability at noincrease in the cost of senive delivery is examined. The neutralcost assumption is questioned with data provided showing thatin England and Wales larger social services departments havelower unit costs. Moreover, the need for more joint and contractualarrangements under the new structures, which the governmenthas itself acknowledged, could undermine efficiency as wellas blurring accountability. Overall, it is argued that the government'scase for change is based on shaky assumptions with little evidence,and the concern must be that the combination of reorganizationand spending constraints will lead to reductions in semce provisionin the new authorities.     

PRICE LEVEL UNCERTAINTY, SAVING, AND LABOR SUPPLY

This paper derives the implications, for individual saving and labor supply, of increased uncertainty about the future price level. The framework for the analysis is a two-period model in which saving and labor supply are alternative sources of both present disutility and future income. The individual is assumed to make simultaneously his saving and labor supply decisions prior to the resolution of the uncertainty about the future price level. We find that, under theoretically plausible and empirically relevant assumptions about attitudes toward risk, an increase in future price level uncertainty increases individual saving and labor supply. These results imply that, for the economy as a whole, increased uncertainty about the future price level increases output and employment, while decreasing the real rate of interest, the present price level, and economic welfare.     

INVESTMENT IN SISTER'S CHILDREN AS BEHAVIOR TOWARDS RISK

A risk-averse man will invest in his sister's children if he cares about his genetic relatedness to future generations and if he is unsure about being the father of his wife's children. The model in this paper is an advance over the earlier expected-relatedness models in that it permits mixed investment in both sister's and wife's children and also permits investment in sister's children at higher levels of paternity probability. Estimates from ordered logits suggest that paternity probability is an important determinant of investment in sister's children and that some investment in sister's children occurs even at high levels of paternity probability.