What is wrong with the Mission Dependency Index for US federal infrastructure decisions?

The Mission Dependency Index (MDI) is a risk metric used by US military services and federal agencies for guiding operations, management, and funding decisions for facilities. Despite its broad adoption for guiding the expenditure of billions in federal funds, several studies on MDI suggest it may have flaws that limit its efficacy. We present a detailed technical analysis of MDI to show how its flaws impact infrastructure decisions. We present the MDI used by the US Navy and develop a critique of current methods. We identify six problems with MDI that stem from its interpretation, use, and mathematical formulation, and we provide examples demonstrating how these flaws can bias decisions. We provide recommendations to overcome flaws for infrastructure risk decision making but ultimately recommend the US government develop a new metric less susceptible to bias.     

What Happens When There Is Presumptive 50/50 Parenting Time? An Evaluation of Arizona’s New Child Custody Statute

ABSTRACT

The current study presents the findings of an evaluation of Arizona’s 2013 revisions to the child custody statutes that directed courts to “maximize” the child’s parenting time with both parents. A state-wide survey of the four family law professions (i.e., conciliation court staff, judges, mental health providers, and attorneys) assessed their perceptions of the law 4 years after implementation. We averaged the ratings across the four professions to obtain a comprehensive perspective that gave equal weight to each profession. Results revealed that the law functions as a rebuttable presumption of equal parenting time; that it is evaluated positively overall and in terms of children’s best interests; that it is has a neutral impact on legal and interparental conflict; and that it has led to small increases in allegations of domestic violence, child abuse, and substance abuse.     

Technology,slavery and the Falmouth Water Company of Jamaica, 1799–1805

Slave societies such as Jamaica were among the earliest regions to adopt new technologies, suggesting that slavery was not synonymous with economic backwardness. This article uses the efforts of the Falmouth Water Company to adopt the new hydraulic ram between 1799 and 1805 to show that this process was also not restricted to the plantation sector and that the island possessed an unexpected capacity for technological adaption. This was based on local skills in mechanical and civil engineering derived from the plantation sector, and a wider political and financial background that supported innovation when the right conditions were in place.     

Parental socialization of positive affect,adolescent positive affect regulation,and adolescent girls’ depression in India

An emerging body of research shows that parental socialization of positive affect (PA) is implicated in youth functioning, although most evidence comes from Western countries. In this study, focusing on adolescent girls in India, we examined associations among reports of parents’ responses to adolescent PA, adolescent PA regulation, and adolescent depression. A total of 238 adolescent girls (13–18 years) and one of their parents (54% mothers) were recruited. Participants completed questionnaires at the beginning of the school year (time 1) and five months later (time 2). At the bivariate level, parents’ dampening and adolescent girls’ dampening responses were each associated concurrently with adolescent depression at time 1. However, there were no significant direct associations between time 1 parents’ dampening or enhancing responses and time 2 adolescent girls’ depression (after controlling for time 1 depression). Using half‐longitudinal models, a significant indirect effect was found from parental dampening of PA to increased adolescent depression via adolescent girls’ own increased dampening. No indirect effect was found from parental enhancing to adolescent depression via adolescent girls’ increased positive rumination. These findings are the first to demonstrate the relevance of PA socialization for girls in a non‐Western culture.     

Pension policy design changes in EU countries since the mid‐1990s

Recent decades have been characterised by significant pension reforms. This article reviews this process, focusing on five policy design issues that have concerned policymakers: optimising poverty alleviation effectiveness; redefining the state's role in smoothing incomes over the life‐course; balancing contributions to benefits; adjusting the system to respond to demographic, economic and social changes; and ensuring that reforms will be long‐lasting. While the role of state pensions is diminishing, there is a growing realisation of the need to ensure that they remain adequate, reigniting interest in minimum pensions and contribution credits. The expanding role of private pensions has led governments to intervene more in their operation. Policymakers have shown interest in automatic adjustment mechanisms to bring about required economic changes. However, there is greater understanding that for these to happen, the state has to engage more with its citizens.     

Environmental Concern of Labor Union Members in the United States

The labor and environmental movements have had a complicated relationship with periods of cooperation as well as conflict, but recently there has been increasing collaboration at the national level. Whether such a trend of cooperation can be sustained will partially depend on grassroots‐level connections between the two movements. However, there has been little empirical research on the environmental attitudes of union members, which is important for understanding the potential for shared values between union members and environmental activists. This article analyzes 1993, 2000, and 2010 General Social Survey data to examine if the environmental attitudes of people in union households have changed given shifting labor–environment relations and broader political‐economic conditions. We find that union membership does not influence environmental concern in weaker economic times (1993 and 2010) but that it has a positive effect on environmental concern in stronger economic times (2000). Thus, union households are generally no less concerned about the environment than nonunion households. Therefore, strengthening connections between union members and environmental activists may be a feasible strategy for invigorating both the labor and environmental movements.     

Self‐Service Operations at Retail Stores: The Role of Inter‐Customer Interactions

Inter‐customer interactions are important to the operation of self‐services in retail settings. More specifically, when self‐service terminals are used as part of customers’ checkout processes in retail operations without the explicit involvement of retailers as the direct service providers, inter‐customer interactions become a significant managerial issue. In this article, we examine the impact of inter‐customer interactions at retail self‐service terminals on customers’ service quality perceptions and repeat purchase intentions at retail stores. We conduct a scenario‐based experimental design (N = 674) using a 2 × 2 factorial design in which inter‐customer interactions are divided into “positive” vs. “negative” and occur during the “waiting” or during the actual “transaction” stages of self‐services at a retail store. We use attribution theory to develop the hypotheses. The results demonstrate that, through their interactions, fellow customers can exert influences on a focal customer's quality perceptions and repeat purchasing intentions toward a retail store. Furthermore, these influences were impacted by how customers attribute blame or assign responsibility toward the retail store. Service operations managers should leverage these interactions by designing into self‐service settings the capacities and interfaces that are best suited for customers’ co‐production of their self‐service experiences.     

Semi-automated simultaneous predictor selection for regression-SARIMA models

Statistics and Computing - Deciding which predictors to use plays an integral role in deriving statistical models in a wide range of applications. Motivated by the challenges of predicting events...