Effects of Risk and Time Preference and Expected Longevity on Demand for Medical Tests

Despite their conceptual importance, the effects of time preference, expected longevity, uncertainty, and risk aversion on behavior have not been analyzed empirically. We use data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) to assess the role of risk and time preference, expected longevity, and education on demand for three measures used for early detection of breast and cervical cancer—regular breast self-exams, mammograms, and Pap smears. We find that individuals with a higher life expectancy and lower time preference are more likely to undergo cancer screening. Less risk averse individuals tend to be more likely to undergo testing.     

Using Transfer Procedures to Teach Tacts to a Child with Autism

This applied study attempted to evaluate a combination of transfer procedures commonly used to teach tacts to children with autism. A receptive to echoic to tact transfer and an echoic to tact transfer procedure were combined during 5-min instructional sessions to teach tacts to a seven-year-old vocal child with autism. A multiple baseline design across three sets of ten tacts was used. Without the teaching procedure, the child acquired no target tacts. With the 5-min teaching procedure implemented first with Set 1 then with Sets 2 and 3, respectively, the child acquired thirty new tacts over sixty teaching sessions. The results have wide application for children with and without autism who need instruction to learn tacts.     

Quantifying Potential Health Impacts of Cadmium in Cigarettes on Smoker Risk of Lung Cancer: A Portfolio-of-Mechanisms Approach

This article introduces an approach to estimating the uncertain potential effects on lung cancer risk of removing a particular constituent, cadmium (Cd), from cigarette smoke, given the useful but incomplete scientific information available about its modes of action. The approach considers normal cell proliferation; DNA repair inhibition in normal cells affected by initiating events; proliferation, promotion, and progression of initiated cells; and death or sparing of initiated and malignant cells as they are further transformed to become fully tumorigenic. Rather than estimating unmeasured model parameters by curve fitting to epidemiological or animal experimental tumor data, we attempt rough estimates of parameters based on their biological interpretations and comparison to corresponding genetic polymorphism data. The resulting parameter estimates are admittedly uncertain and approximate, but they suggest a portfolio approach to estimating impacts of removing Cd that gives usefully robust conclusions. This approach views Cd as creating a portfolio of uncertain health impacts that can be expressed as biologically independent relative risk factors having clear mechanistic interpretations. Because Cd can act through many distinct biological mechanisms, it appears likely (subjective probability greater than 40%) that removing Cd from cigarette smoke would reduce smoker risks of lung cancer by at least 10%, although it is possible (consistent with what is known) that the true effect could be much larger or smaller. Conservative estimates and assumptions made in this calculation suggest that the true impact could be greater for some smokers. This conclusion appears to be robust to many scientific uncertainties about Cd and smoking effects.     

The Economics of the Counter-Reformation: Incumbent-Firm Reaction to Market Entry

The Catholic Church reacted to the Protestant Reformation by taking on the defensive posture of an incumbent-firm monopoly fighting to survive in the face of new competition. Contemporary firms typically respond to rival entry by rewriting their corporate charter. So did the medieval Catholic Church. But the Council of Trent failed as a reorganization plan because to keep economic rents flowing as before, it left intact the distribution of powers and property rights among the governing body of pope and cardinals—thus demonstrating that entrenched economic interests are powerful inducements to behavior, even in spiritual institutions.     

Unrepresentative Information: The Case of Newspaper Reporting on Campaign Finance

This article examines evidence of sampling or statistical biasin newspaper reporting on campaign finance. We compile all storiesfrom the five largest circulation newspapers in the United Statesthat mention a dollar amount for campaign expenditures, contributions,or receipts from 1996 to 2000. We compare these figures to thoserecorded by the Federal Election Commission (FEC). The averagefigures reported in newspapers exceed the figures from the FECby as much as eightfold. Press reports also focus excessivelyon corporate contributions and soft money, rather than on themore common types of donors—individual—and typesof contributions—hard money. We further find that thesebiases are reflected in public perceptions of money in elections.Survey respondents overstate the amount of money raised andthe share from different groups by roughly the amount foundin newspapers, and better-educated people (those most likelyto read newspapers) showed the greatest discrepancy betweentheir beliefs and the facts.     

Cognition and Emotion? The Dead End in Self‐Esteem Research

This article suggests that studies of self‐esteem using scales have reached a dead end, and suggest alternative directions. First we show how significance tests have obscured meager results. According to reviews, this huge body of research has yielded no substantial findings. Some sub‐fields show consistent, but trivially small, effects; reviews of the entire field show none at all. Most important, the size of effects does not seem to be increasing. Three questions are raised: 1. Are new standards needed to determine when to continue or stop a given line of research? 2. Are new approaches needed alternative to standardized scales and statistical tests? 3. Should future studies of self‐esteem emphasize feeling and social components at least as much as cognitive (self‐evaluative) components? Studies of self‐esteem using interview techniques by George Brown and his colleagues suggest the need to move closer to actual data. An exploratory study that takes this direction a step further is described. We analyze social and cognitive/emotional elements second by second in discourse about topics relevant to self‐appraisal and self‐feeling.     

The impact of gender on gambling attitudes and behavior

Researchers have often attributed the consistent relation of gender and gambling behavior to gender role socialization. If they are correct, gender should affect different sets of gambling attitudes in a manner consistent with at least three aspects of gender role socialization: a double standard of morality, a guardian of the hearth role for women, and a dualism of orientations. A survey measuring gambling attitudes and behavior was sent to a sample of residents in North Dakota after legalization of several games of chance (e.g., blackjack). Gender affects behavior but only some of the specified attitudes. These mixed results may reflect changes in gender role socialization and the increasing legalization of gambling.     

Faculty Support of Student Dissent

This paper replicates an earlier study of faculty status and tolerance of political dissent by Abramson and Wences. The data support the hypothesis that length of residence on a university campus is inversely related to faculty tolerance of student dissent. The expected relationship between academic rank and tolerance was eliminated by controlling for longevity, but the predicted relationship between academic field and tolerance was unaffected. The effect of longevity appears to be independent of political orientations, and the data suggest that peer group influence is operative among faculty members.