A Simple Formula for Calculating the "Mass Density" of a Lognormally Distributed Characteristic: Applications to Risk Analysis

Statements such as "80% of the employees do 20% of the work" or "the richest 1% of society controls 10% of its assets" are commonly used to describe the distribution or concentration of a variable characteristic within a population. Analogous statements can be constructed to reflect the relationship between probability and concentration for unvarying quantities surrounded by uncertainty. Both kinds of statements represent specific usages of a general relationship, the "mass density function," that is not widely exploited in risk analysis and management. This paper derives a simple formula for the mass density function when the uncertainty and/or the variability in a quantity is lognormally distributed; the formula gives the risk analyst an exact, "back-of-the-envelope" method for determining the fraction of the total amount of a quantity contained within any portion of its distribution. For example, if exposures to a toxicant are lognormally distributed with σ_{in x}= 2, 50% of all the exposure is borne by the 2.3% of persons most heavily exposed. Implications of this formula for various issues in risk assessment are explored, including: (1) the marginal benefits of risk reduction; (2) distributional equity and risk perception; (3) accurate confidence intervals for the population mean when a limited set of data is available; (4) the possible biases introduced by the uncritical assumption that extreme "outliers" exist; and (5) the calculation of the value of new information.     

Job Satisfaction,Leisure Satisfaction,and Psychological Health

Job satisfaction, leisure satisfaction, and psychological health were measured for 189 adult men who were employed full time. Job satisfaction and leisure satisfaction were found to be significant positive predictors of psychological health. Stepwise regression analyses indicated that job satisfaction was the better predictor of psychological health, but leisure satisfaction added significantly to the prediction. Although job satisfaction was significantly higher for white-collar (professional) workers than for blue-collar workers, the prediction of psychological health by the independent variables was not affected by occupational status. Theoretical and counseling implications are discussed.     

PRICE‐LEVEL CHANGES AND THE REDISTRIBUTION OF NOMINAL WEALTH ACROSS THE EURO AREA

We show that unexpected price‐level movements generate sizable wealth redistribution in the Euro Area (EA), using sectoral accounts and newly available data from the Household Finance and Consumption Survey. The EA as a whole is a net loser of unexpected price‐level decreases, with Italy, Greece, Portugal, and Spain losing most in per capita terms, and Belgium and Malta being net winners. Governments are net losers of deflation, while the household (HH) sector is a net winner in the EA as a whole. HHs in Belgium, Ireland, Malta, and Germany experience the biggest per capita gains, while HHs in Finland and Spain turn out to be net losers. Considerable heterogeneity exists also within the HH sector: relatively young middle class HHs are net losers of deflation, while older and richer HHs are winners. As a result, wealth inequality in the EA increases with unexpected deflation, although in some countries (Austria, Germany, and Malta) inequality decreases due to the presence of relatively few young borrowing HHs. We document that HHs' inflation exposure varies systematically across countries, with HHs in high‐inflation EA countries holding systematically lower nominal exposures.     

Perception of Multisensory Gender Coherence in 6‐ and 9‐Month‐Old Infants

One of the most salient social categories conveyed by human faces and voices is gender. We investigated the developmental emergence of the ability to perceive the coherence of auditory and visual attributes of gender in 6‐ and 9‐month‐old infants. Infants viewed two side‐by‐side video clips of a man and a woman singing a nursery rhyme and heard a synchronous male or female sound track. Results showed that 6‐month‐old infants did not match the audible and visible attributes of gender, and 9‐month‐old infants matched only female faces and voices. These findings indicate that the ability to perceive the multisensory coherence of gender emerges relatively late in infancy and that it reflects the greater experience that most infants have with female faces and voices.     

The geographic distribution of gaming machine proceeds in New Zealand

ABSTRACT

Within NZ gambling and its associated harms are well-researched topics. However, most studies to date have relied upon the use of survey methodology or have focused on individual regions. In this paper we distribute gaming machine proceeds (GMP) from gaming venues to the surrounding localities in order to derive estimates of GMP per capita. It is hoped these estimates will enable the trusts who operate the electronic gaming machines (EGMs), and who are responsible for reinvesting a proportion of proceeds back into the community, to more accurately target funding towards the areas most affected by the harms of EGM gambling. Our estimates of GMP per capita also provide a means of assessing the criterion validity of the recently developed Dynamic Deprivation Index. Furthermore, although it is well known that Māori and Pacific Island populations have a higher incidence of problem gambling, our results imply that when controlling for socio-economic deprivation and the geographic location of EGMs the associations between ethnicity and GMP per capita are weak. From a policy perspective, this suggests the most effective way of limiting the harms of EGM gambling on these populations is to place tighter controls on the number of venues within their communities.     

Business Mobilization and Public Policy in the U.S. States*

Objective. The goal of this study is to examine how the political mobilization of business interests influences aggregate public policy outputs in the states. We examine the relationship between business mobilization and general state policy liberalism, as well as policy that we term state “business policy climate.” Methods. We construct a measure of the “business policy climate” from a number of tax and regulatory indicators in the states and examine whether business influences it and policy liberalism using ordinary least squares regression. Results. The analysis shows that business mobilization does not influence general policy liberalism but is a significant influence on a state's business policy climate. Specifically, the dominance of a state's campaign finance system by business interests makes policy more favorable toward business. Conclusions. The extent of business mobilization in a state is an important influence on public policy outputs but is constrained by the activities of other political actors such as unions.     

An analysis of current Australian program initiatives for children exposed to domestic violence

While services have been assisting women who have been victims of domestic violence for many years, it has only been in recent times, that children exposed to domestic violence have begun to receive attention by service providers as clients in their own right. A number of specialised programs have now been designed to meet the needs of these children by domestic violence services and agencies that have a child protection or child welfare/family support focus. This paper aims to describe the types of programs currently in operation across Australia which cater specifically for the needs of children who have been exposed to domestic violence by analysing programs listed on the Child Abuse Prevention Programs Database developed by the National Child Protection Clearinghouse. A number of suggestions are made with regard to the means by which therapeutic responses and research in this area could be enhanced.     

Parent and Peer Attachment in Minority Males at High Risk for Delinquency

Juvenile delinquency and high risk behaviors have been linked to disturbances in attachment. The present study examined parent and peer attachment in 67 African American males and 97 Latinos (ages 12–17, M = 14.7 ± 1.3) attending an alternative school. The Inventory of Parent and Peer Attachment was used to identify 3 attachment style groups: “Isolated,” “Disconnected,” and “Connected.” Controlling for age, attachment group membership predicted differences in delinquent behaviors, as did ethnicity. Further, on the Youth Self-Report of the Child Behavior Checklist, attachment group membership predicted differences in both the Internalizing and Externalizing Scales. Implications for interventions with each identified attachment group are discussed.     

Supporting and Encouraging Father Involvement in Families of Children Who Have a Disability

Although researchers have studied families of children with disabilities for many decades, most of this work has been focused on the mothers. Very little information is available to help social workers and other family professionals understand the importance and benefits of father involvement. Such involvement can be deterred if fathers feel overwhelmed by the transitions the child and family will inevitably face. By identifying the developmental and historical stage of the father, mother, couple, and child, social workers can help the family prepare for impending transitions. Such preparation can avoid likely distress and provide the family with sufficient information and support to change a potential crisis into a positive, affirming turning point. To assist social workers in planning appropriate interventions, a list of potential resources is also provided.