Equity Ownership in Cross‐border Mergers and Acquisitions by British Firms: An Analysis of Real Options and Transaction Cost Factors

The authors investigate the factors influencing the share of equity ownership sought in cross‐border mergers and acquisitions (CBM&As). Drawing on real options theory and transaction cost economics (TCE), they address and hypothesize key factors linked to commitment under exogenous uncertainty and the separation of desired and non‐desired assets’ influence on share of equity sought by acquiring firms in CBM&As. Empirical analysis based on 1872 CBM&As undertaken by British firms in both developed and emerging economies shows that British MNEs are more likely to pursue a partial acquisition in a target foreign firm when those foreign firms are from culturally distant countries. Further, findings support the view that the high cost of separating desired assets from non‐desired assets motivates firms to make a partial acquisition rather than acquire the target completely. This is one of the first studies to use real options theory to address the cost of commitment under exogenous uncertainty, as well as TCE logic to address the separation of desired and non‐desired assets in the target firm while analysing equity ownership sought in CBM&As. Empirically, this paper contributes by examining CBM&As by British firms in both developed and emerging markets.     

International Evidence on the Determinants of Organizational Ethical Vulnerability

This paper proposes a model to explain what makes organizations ethically vulnerable. Drawing upon legitimacy, institutional, agency and individual moral reasoning theories we consider three sets of explanatory factors and examine their association with organizational ethical vulnerability. The three sets comprise external institutional context, internal corporate governance mechanisms and organizational ethical infrastructure. We combine these three sets of factors and develop an analytical framework for classifying ethical issues and propose a new model of organizational ethical vulnerability. We test our model on a sample of 253 firms that were involved in ethical misconduct and compare them with a matched sample of the same number of firms from 28 different countries. The results suggest that weak regulatory environment and internal corporate governance, combined with profitability warnings or losses in the preceding year, increase organizational ethical vulnerability. We find counterintuitive evidence suggesting that firms’ involvement in bribery and corruption prevention training programmes is positively associated with the likelihood of ethical vulnerability. By synthesizing insights about individual and corporate behaviour from multiple theories, this study extends existing analytical literature on business ethics. Our findings have implications for firms’ external regulatory settings, corporate governance mechanisms and organizational ethical infrastructure.     

Recalibration of the Grunow–Finke Assessment Tool to Improve Performance in Detecting Unnatural Epidemics

Successful identification of unnatural epidemics relies on a sensitive risk assessment tool designed for the differentiation between unnatural and natural epidemics. The Grunow–Finke tool (GFT), which has been the most widely used, however, has low sensitivity in such differentiation. We aimed to recalibrate the GFT and improve the performance in detection of unnatural epidemics. The comparator was the original GFT and its application in 11 historical outbreaks, including eight confirmed unnatural outbreaks and three natural outbreaks. Three steps were involved: (i) removing criteria, (ii) changing weighting factors, and (iii) adding and refining criteria. We created a series of alternative models to examine the changes on the parameter likelihood of unnatural outbreaks until we found a model that correctly identified all the unnatural outbreaks and natural ones. Finally, the recalibrated GFT was tested and validated with data from an unnatural and natural outbreak, respectively. A total of 238 models were tested. Through the removal of criteria, increasing or decreasing weighting factors of other criteria, adding a new criterion titled “special insights,” and setting a new threshold for likelihood, we increased the sensitivity of the GFT from 38% to 100%, and retained the specificity at 100% in detecting unnatural epidemics. Using test data from an unnatural and a natural outbreak, the recalibrated GFT correctly classified their etiology. The recalibrated GFT could be integrated into routine outbreak investigation by public health institutions and agencies responsible for biosecurity.     

Inflation uncertainty and economic growth: evidence from the LAD ARCH model

In this paper, we combined the panel data and least absolute deviation autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (ARCH) (L ₁-ARCH) model to infer on the relationship between inflation uncertainty and economic growth in five emerging market economies. Two interesting findings emerged from the analysis; first, we confirmed that the inflation uncertainty has a significant and negative effect on economic growth. Second, inflation is also an important variable and it is detrimental to economic prospects in the fast-growing Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) economies. All in all, the empirical findings suggest that greater stability in the economy may be desirable in order to stimulate economic growth in the region.     

Bounds of moment generating functions of some life distributions

In this article we show that if a life has new better than used in expectation (NBUE) ageing property and if the mean life is finite then the moment generating function exists and is finite. In fact, the moment generating function is shown to be bounded above by that of the exponential distribution with the same mean. Analogous results are also proven for two much bigger families of life distribution, namely, the new better than renewal used in expectation (NBRUE) and the renewal new is better than used in expectation (RNBUE) and the renewal new better than renewal used in expectation (RNBRUE), provided that the life has finite two moments. Further, stronger results are also obtained for the smaller new better than used version of the above classes.     

Symmetric and asymmetric rounding: a review and some new results

Using rounded data to estimate moments and regression coefficients typically biases the estimates. We explore the bias-inducing effects of rounding, thereby reviewing widely dispersed and often half forgotten results in the literature. Under appropriate conditions, these effects can be approximately rectified by versions of Sheppard’s correction formula. We discuss the conditions under which these approximations are valid and also investigate the efficiency loss caused by rounding. The rounding error, which corresponds to the measurement error of a measurement error model, has a marginal distribution, which can be approximated by the uniform distribution, but is not independent of the true value. In order to take account of rounding preferences (heaping), we generalize the concept of simple rounding to that of asymmetric rounding and consider its effect on the mean and variance of a distribution.     

Design of a time-truncated double sampling plan for a general life distribution

A double sampling plan based on truncated life tests is proposed and designed under a general life distribution. The design parameters such as sample sizes and acceptance numbers for the first and the second samples are determined so as to minimize the average sample number subject to satisfying the consumer's and producer's risks at the respectively specified quality levels. The resultant tables can be used regardless of the underlying distribution as long as the reliability requirements are specified at two risks. In addition, Gamma and Weibull distributions are particularly considered to report the design parameters according to the quality levels in terms of the mean ratios.     

Fractionally integrated ARMA for crude palm oil prices prediction: case of potentially overdifference

Dealing with stationarity remains an unsolved problem. Some of the time series data, especially crude palm oil (CPO) prices persist towards nonstationarity in the long-run data. This dilemma forces the researchers to conduct first-order difference. The basic idea is that to obtain the stationary data that is considered as a good strategy to overcome the nonstationary counterparts. An opportune remark as it is, this proxy may lead to overdifference. The CPO prices trend elements have not been attenuated but nearly annihilated. Therefore, this paper presents the usefulness of autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average (ARFIMA) model as the solution towards the nonstationary persistency of CPO prices in the long-run data. In this study, we employed daily historical Free-on-Board CPO prices in Malaysia. A comparison was made between the ARFIMA over the existing autoregressive-integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. Here, we employed three statistical evaluation criteria in order to measure the performance of the applied models. The general conclusion that can be derived from this paper is that the usefulness of the ARFIMA model outperformed the existing ARIMA model.