A Note on Exponentially Smoothed Seasonal Differences

Filtering economic time series can be justified if variations within a certain frequency interval are relevant for the problem at hand. It is shown here that exponential smoothing of seasonal differences provides a simple means of damping short oscillations, including seasonal ones.     

Parameter estimation for switched counting processes

The paper investigates parameter estimation problems in special Markov modulated counting processes. The events occuring at any state of an underlying Markov chain can be equipped with marks performing additional information on the events. Specifying the model to the case of two-state Markov chain modulation, the so-called switched counting process, some statistical problems are studied:maximum likelihood estimators, Rao-Blackwell optimal estimators, test of equality of the counting intensities of the two states and minimax estimation procedures. Tne consideration could be applied in various practical problems, in particular, in queueing and in reliability models, for example in failure-repair processes with alternatively operating repair systems.     

Gespensterdebatte oder was ist soziologische Aufklärung?

We reply to the critical comments of Richard Münch and the author group Jansen, Heidler and von Goetz on our article “Emergence of an Academic Elite? The Impact of Universities’ Size and Reputation on Research Funding” published in this journal. After reviewing some other sociologists’ statements on Münch’s thesis about the academic elite we reinforce the gain of our empirical analyses of hypotheses of the sociology of science in general, on the Matthew-Effect, and on trends to a possible cartelization and monopolization in the German science system. The main critic of unsuited data (we used applications for single grants submitted to the German Research Foundation) does not adequately consider the postulated scope of the investigated theses and our analyses do not aim at a general evaluation of the “Initative of Excellence”.     

The Evolution of Housing Typologies for Older Adults in The Netherlands From 1945 to 2016: An Analysis in the Context of Policy,Societal, and Technological Developments

This study aims to examine housing typologies for older adults in the light of three qualitatively examined exogenous factors: policy, societal developments, and technology. The developments in inpatient and assisted ambulatory housing facilities for older adults have been mapped from 1945 to 2016 using quantitative data. Using these data, five transition periods can be distinguished. Within the first transition periods, policy factors were tremendously important, while within the later ones, societal influence empowered by technological change became the primarily driving factor. This research shows that the classification of inpatient, assisted ambulatory housing, and outpatient housing may no longer be applicable in its current form.     

Quality of employment in Latin America: Theory and evidence

Historically, the development literature concerned with Latin American labour markets has focused on job numbers and productivity. But given the persistence of large shares of informal and now otherwise precarious employment, the authors argue that meaningful analysis also requires consideration of the implications of occupational status for the quality of employment. Based on empirical evidence from recent decades, they conclude that most dimensions of this concept – including social protection – depend on the conclusion of a written contract of employment. This finding leads them to outline policy options for stabilizing formal employment and securing adequate funding for social protection.     

Schulstruktur und Bildungsungleichheit: Die Bedeutung von bundeslandspezifischen Unterschieden beim Übergang in die Sekundarstufe I für den BildungserfolgStructure of the education system and educational inequality: the relevance of regional differences in the institutional conditions for educational attainment

The relevance of institutional arrangements concerning the German school system for social inequalities remains comparatively unclear, due to the prevalent use of only simple and mostly static categories. The present study adds to this debate and analyses the effect of different regulations at the transition to upper secondary schools on educational achievement and social inequality. Duration of primary schooling and tracking recommendations are taken into account. Empirical analyses are based on information of the related Education Acts (1985–2010) as well as data from the German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP). This approach constitutes a significant advancement as it allows for an overall identification of changes in the institutional features between and within states. Results indicate that children who attend primary schools that cover six instead of four years are more likely to be enrolled in an academic-track Gymnasium. These effects are especially strong for children with lower social background. There is no significant difference between secondary school systems with overall pure early tracking and school systems with fewer school tracks and delayed tracking in the sense that only students who don’t attend upper secondary school aren’t tracked after the fourth grade. Furthermore, the results reveal that the relative importance of (mandatory) track recommendations tends to be lower for children of parents with higher socioeconomic status, even if children in general are more likely to attend the Gymnasium at age 15, when the parents’ freedom of choice isn’t restricted by teachers’ recommendations.     

Gentrifikation in zwei Wohngebieten von KölnGentrification in two residential areas of Cologne

We examine the process of Gentrification in two residential areas of Cologne, Germany: Deutz and Mülheim. The theory underlying the study is a phase (or stage) model of Gentrification in which indicators and their values are attributed to each phase. The hypotheses derived from the model pertain to changes in the social structure, rents and the spatial distribution of social groups such as “pioneers”, “gentrifiers” and “others”. We further assume both areas to be in different phases of Gentrification.     

Führung durch Selbstführung

This paper outlines the conceptual bases, strategies, and psychological attributes of leadership by self-leadership. In addition, relations to other theories of leadership are drawn. Dimensions and correlates of self-leadership competence are described and discussed. Various approaches for developing self-leadership competence are discussed as well.