A cohort analysis of the fertility of the July 1 People's Commune in Shanghai, County]

The survey was conducted in February-March 1981. The population of this commune at the end of 1980 was 18,608. The cultural and educational levels, economic condition, and work in family planning of this commune form a typical example among numerous similar communes in Shanghai County. The birthrate, natural growth rate, and average fertility rate began to decline in the later half of 1950s and reached the lowest level in 1974. The survey shows a delay in the marriage age. The fertility rate also dropped by 21.31% from 1963 to 1980. The average fertility rate dropped by 162.73% from 1963 to 1980. Among the women of childbearing age, 99% of them have a knowledge of birth control measures, 95% of them have used them before, and 78% are currently using them. All these figures show that the work in family planning in the commune has reached a high level by world standards. 3 factors which have a strong impact on fertility are: the economic and educational level, formation of population elements, and family planning work. A rise in the standard of living and improvement in education normally leads to late marriage and a decline in fertility. An increase in the number of women of childbearing age causes a rise in fertility. The population growth after 1974 is a reflection of this situation. The survey shows that the decline in fertility before 1973 was caused mainly by family planning work.     

Comparison of designs equivalent under one or two criteria

Two designs equivalent under one or two criteria may be compared under other criteria. For certain configurations of eigenvalues of the information matrices, we decide which design is the better of the two for many other such criteria. The relationship to universal optimality (in the case of equivalence under one criterion) is indicated. For two criteria, applications are given to weighing and treatment-with-covariate settings.     

A computer-based modelling system for electric utility planning

This paper examines the development of a computer based modelling system for electricity planning within the South African Electricity Supply Commission. The system is a specialized computer based planning system, which enables the extensive analysis of a wide variety of problems to be undertaken.

This paper explains the methodology and progress of analysis through the system and describes in detail how the planners can progress from forecasting of demand and supply parameters to the proposals for a necessary expansion of generation, transmission and distribution facilities. Finally, the paper explains the analysis required to verify the proposed projects feasibility from the point of view of corporate financing.     

Asymptotic properties of randomly indexed sequences of random variables

Conditions are given for a randomly indexed sequence of random variables to converge weakly. The key concept employed is the so-called generalized Anscombe condition. The results give a method of determining sequential stopping rules, which have the required accuracy of estimation of an unknown parameter in the case when the observations are not necessarily independent and identically distributed.     

Comparison of rotatable designs for regression on balls,I (quadratic)

Designs for quadratic and cubic regression are considered when the possible choices of the controlable variable are points x=( x₁,x₂,…,x_q) in the q-dimensional. Full of radius R, B_q(R) ={x:Σ⁴_ix²_i?R²}. The designs that are optimum among rotatable designs with respect to the D-, A-, and E-optimality criteria are compared in their performance relative to these and other criteria, including extrapolation. Additionally, the performance of a design optimum for one value of R, when it is implemented for a different value of R, is investigated. Some of the results are developed algebraically; others, numerically. For example, in quadratic regression the A-optimum design appears to be fairly robust in its efficiency, under variation of criterion.     

Supervision in Family Therapy: A Developmental Perspective

A group model of supervision of family therapy was implemented by a team of three supervisors with doctoral students in counseling psychology. It was believed that such an approach would provide students with more opportunity to work as therapists with families and to observe a greater variety of families, therapists, and therapeutic styles than in other models. Interchange in supervisory sessions focused on co-therapy issues, observation skills, family dynamics, differing therapeutic techniques and approaches, and planning and goal setting in therapy. This experience contributed to the professional and personal growth and development of students.