Diagnosing physical abuse using Bayes' Theorem: a preliminary study

Objectives. To perform a preliminary study to compare the patterns of bruises in a physically abused group of children and a control group; to investigate whether these could be modelled statistically to enable probabilities of typical bruise patterns to be calculated; to apply Bayes' Theorem to find the probability that a child with a given bruise pattern has been the subject of physical abuse. Design. An observational study. Setting. Cardiff and Vale of Glamorgan. Subjects. Children who have suffered child physical abuse, 0–14 years. The diagnosis was confirmed at a case conference in all cases. A control group of 289 children who presented to the Accident and Emergency Department at the Cardiff Royal Infirmary after an accidental injury. Main outcome measures. The distribution bruise pattern in three regions of the body. The posterior probability of abuse for a given bruise pattern. Results. The bruise distribution in physically abused and control children was well described by a negative binomial distribution. There was a different distribution for the three different regions of the body in physically abused children. The bruising frequency and distribution for the physically abused group was very different from that of the controls. We were able to use parameters derived from these distributions to calculate posterior probabilities of physical abuse given a particular pattern of bruises using Bayes' Theorem. Conclusions. This preliminary study demonstrates that we can use Bayes' Theorem to combine prior probabilities of physical abuse with observed patterns of bruising in given children to obtain posterior probabilities of abuse. This principle has considerable potential for better diagnosis of the physically abused child. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

On extropy properties of ranked set sampling

Ranked set sampling is a sampling design that allows the experimenter to span the full range values in the population and it can be used widely in industrial, environmental and ecological studies. In this paper, we consider the information content of ranked set sampling in terms of extropy measure. It is shown that the ranked set sampling performs better than its simple random sample counterpart of the same size. Monotone properties and stochastic orders are investigated. Sharp bounds on the extropy of RSS data based on the projection method in the non-parametric set-up as well as Steffensen inequalities in the parametric context are established. The extropy measure can also be used as a discrimination tool between RSS and SRS data.     

The Importance of Household Management for the Business-Owning Family

The household managerial behavior of 673 business-owning families from the 1997 National Family Business Survey was examined using a scale adapted from Heck, Winter, and Stafford (1992). The scale was reliable and used to compare the managerial behavior of solo- and dual-role holders in the sample. Although t-tests revealed few significant differences between solo- and dual-role holders, factor analyses showed that the two groups differed noticeably in management style. The differences were not in the frequency of use of managerial activities but in which activities were viewed as related by the two groups.     

亚洲传播研究的蓬勃发展与未来：中国视角与日本视角（上）

中国学者与日本学者就“亚洲传播研究的蓬勃发展及未来”这一问题进行对话,其中的问题包括：亚洲传手轻研究蓬勃发展的情况如何？为什么亚洲传播研究者尚未终止欧洲中心传播范式的统治？亚洲传播研究的目的与意义何在？哪些亚洲本土文化概念可以为亚洲传播理论的发展做出贡献？如何评价亚洲传播研究？     

The dynamics of labrador Inuit Fertility: An example of cultural and demographic change

Based on quantitative data of unusual depth, the article outlines several possible correlations between demographic and cultural change experienced by the Inuit of Labrador. Starting with an examination of aboriginal reproductive behaviour, the author reviews the influence of modernization on native fertility, paying particular attention to the introduction of Christian values. He asks for a multidimensional approach which takes into account the sensitivity of fertility to a wide range of environmental factors. The results suggest that contrary to the Malthusian dogma, some aboriginal arctic societies seem to have practiced several fertility-reducing techniques.With thanks to the Rev. Siegfried Hettasch and Dr. John C. Kennedy for providing access to the church records employed in this study.     

The prospects of Chinese population growth from 1978 to 2028]

The author presents two alternative projections of the future growth of the Chinese population. The first describes the probable population in 2000 based on official estimates for 1978 and assuming that national population policy goals can be implemented. The second projects population growth for the period 1978-2028 based on the 1978 age composition of the population and average birth and death rates for the period 1973-1978. Two conclusions are drawn. First, the national goal of zero population growth by 2000 will not be reached; at the earliest, the population will cease to grow in 2015. Second, in 2003 and 2028 the young population will greatly outnumber the aged, and in 50 years time half the population will be over 40 years of age.     

A brief analysis of the ideology of filial piety about "No descendant is the worst among three impieties."]

The authors trace the origins of the ideology of filial piety in China and examine the problems that this ideology, particularly the concept that to have no posterity is unfilial, is causing for contemporary society.     

THE EMBRACE:

This article develops the notion that non-distance is a constitutive element in human relations. The essential difference between body-engagement as a relation of non-distance and face-engagement (comprising eye-contact and talk) as a relation of distance is demonstrated. Body-engagement reduces distance and the separate self/body dissolves through touch. The full significance of touch as an encounter and a merging together of bodies is found in the embrace. In it bodies clasp together and draw and press closer to the point where separate and disengaged personal spaces open up and collapse into one common closure. Exploring a broad range of "embrace' phenomena, beginning with the ordinary ritual of shaking hands, and continuing through whole body embraces, erotic love, and finally communitas and mystical union with the divine, this study questions the possibility of unity between self and other. It suggests that the seed of distance always remains within the moment of non-distance, yet the growth of the self (the separate, the different) requires the element of non-distance attained in the unity of the embrace.