Bayesian inference for categorical data analysis

This article surveys Bayesian methods for categorical data analysis, with primary emphasis on contingency table analysis. Early innovations were proposed by Good (1953, 1956, 1965) for smoothing proportions in contingency tables and by Lindley (1964) for inference about odds ratios. These approaches primarily used conjugate beta and Dirichlet priors. Altham (1969, 1971) presented Bayesian analogs of small-sample frequentist tests for 2 x 2 tables using such priors. An alternative approach using normal priors for logits received considerable attention in the 1970s by Leonard and others (e.g., Leonard 1972). Adopted usually in a hierarchical form, the logit-normal approach allows greater flexibility and scope for generalization. The 1970s also saw considerable interest in loglinear modeling. The advent of modern computational methods since the mid-1980s has led to a growing literature on fully Bayesian analyses with models for categorical data, with main emphasis on generalized linear models such as logistic regression for binary and multi-category response variables.     

Data quality: A statistical perspective

We present the old-but-new problem of data quality from a statistical perspective, in part with the goal of attracting more statisticians, especially academics, to become engaged in research on a rich set of exciting challenges. The data quality landscape is described, and its research foundations in computer science, total quality management and statistics are reviewed. Two case studies based on an EDA approach to data quality are used to motivate a set of research challenges for statistics that span theory, methodology and software tools.     

Men,women, and clergymen: opinion and authority in a sacred organization

The Church of England faces a potential crisis over the ordination of women to the priesthood. This article presents survey and interview evidence of patterns of clerical opinion on the problem, showing that the trend of clerical opinion is in favour. However, the organizational context of clerical life means that whereas a clergyman's opinion is fateful for women it may have little consequence for the man himself. Clergymen have an assured status conferred by their priest's orders; they are integrated into professional structures and social networks; they exercise an authority which is seldom openly challenged, and they enjoy a high degree of autonomy and freedom from accountability. Since they are able, if they wish, to insulate themselves from women's ministry, they are often indifferent to its future course. It is not, therefore, a matter of material concern in the working lives of most parish clergymen. Yet women's admission to the priesthood is symbolically momentous. Clerical ambivalence about women priests reflects conflict within the sacred organization between the forces of tradition, charisma and rational-legality.     

Re-evaluation of the Reference Dose for Methylmercury and Assessment of Current Exposure Levels

Methylmercury (Me-Hg) is widely distributed through freshwater and saltwater food chains and human consumption of fish and shellfish has lead to widespread exposure. Both the U.S. EPA Reference Dose (0.3 μg/kg/day) and the FAO/WHO Permissible Tolerable Weekly Intake (3.3 μg/kg/week) are currently based on the prevention of paraesthesia in adult and older children. However, Me-Hg exposure in utero is known to result in a range of developmental neurologic effects including clinical CNS symptoms and delayed onset of walking. Based on a critical review of developmental toxicity data from human and animal studies, it is concluded that current guidelines for the prevention of paraesthesia are not adequate to address developmental effects. A dose of 0.07 μ/kg/day is suggested as the best estimate of a potential reference dose for developmental effects. Data on nationwide fish consumption rates and Me-Hg levels in fish/seafood weighted by proportion of the catch intended for human consumption are analyzed in a Monte Carlo simulation to derive a probability distribution of background Me-Hg exposure. While various uncertainties in the toxicologic and exposure data limit the precision with which health risk can be estimated, this analysis suggests that at current levels of Me-Hg exposure, a significant fraction of women of childbearing age have exposures above this suggested reference dose.     

On the Derivation of Efficiency Results in Linear Estimation

This paper proposes a simple rank condition for determining whether or not certain limited information estimators based on common data transformations in linear models are efficient. Examples which illustrate the use of the condition are presented.     

PERCEPTIONS OF MARRIAGE AND RATIONALITY BY LEVELS OF PERCEIVED HEALTH IN THE FAMILY OF ORIGIN*

The family therapy field has witnessed a beneficial dedication to the study of the transmission of pathology (Mueller & Pope, 1977). Of late however, there is a concern that pathology has been overly stressed (Stachowiak, 1975). It is perhaps with this overemphasis in mind, and that the absence of pathology does not necessarily equal health (Kleiman, 1981), that researchers have recently pursued the study of family health (Olson, Russell & Sprenkle, 1983; Walsh, 1982). The concept of family health has particular significance when considering the family of origin. Bowen (1978) and Framo (1981), in particular, have described the transmission of pathology from one generation to the next. It is less clear, however, whether health follows a similar transmission process, although the notion seems appealingly logical. Anderson (1981) pointed to the dearth of investigations studying the consequences of health in the family of origin and offspring characteristics. This study addresses these concerns by investigating the extent to which subjects' rational thinking and perceptions of marriage are associated with their level of perceived health in their families of origin.