Spatio-temporal change-point modeling

There is by now a substantial literature on spatio-temporal modeling. However, to date, there exists essentially no literature which addresses the issue of process change from a certain time. In fact, if we look at change points for purely time series data, the customary form is to propose a model involving a mean or level shift. We see little attempting to capture a change in association structure. Part of the concern is how to specify flexible ways to bridge the association across the time point and still ensure that a proper joint distribution has been defined for all of the data. Introducing a spatial component evidently adds further complication. We want to allow for a change-point reflecting change in both temporal and spatial association. In this paper we propose a constructive, flexible model formulation through additive specifications. We also demonstrate how computational concerns benefit from the availability of temporal order. Finally, we illustrate with several simulated datasets to examine the capability of the model to detect different types of structural changes.     

Bringing social worlds together: computers as catalysts for new interactions in health care organizations.

In this case study, computer systems are explored as catalysts for new interactions between departments in health care organizations. Hypotheses investigated changes in the extent to which members of different departments (1) exchange information and (2) understand each other's work following implementation of an integrated medical information system. Analyses showed that communication-based forms of involvement in implementation (communicating with systems personnel and trainers, communicating about new ways to use the system, and receiving support from supervisors for doing so) were overwhelmingly more important than either general participation or computer use in predicting increases in interdepartmental interaction. Changes in tasks and roles also led to new, informal, face-to-face contacts to support computer system use, as well as greater administrative control over the organization as a whole. In addition, results of interviews and observations over the two-year study period illustrate the importance of work group identification in predicting changes accompanying computerization.     

A forum for foster children

As part of a joint conference, foster children from five to 20 years of age attended a group session to explore their thoughts and feelings about foster care. The professional leaders reported their observations to a subsequent meeting of foster parents and caseworkers. The comments and behaviors of the children at this meeting were both illuminating and moving. Foster children must be heard.     

The cultural and social incorporation of sociological knowledge

Any evaluation of sociology as a discipline ought to focus not only on the way sociology is produced, but also on how it is consumed. In this article, we examine the degree to which sociological concepts have been incorporated into the vernacular of American society, the impact of sociological techniques and methods on politics and society, and the relationship between sociology and public policy. While sociologists often point to the problems caused by a certain alienation from the general culture—for example the notion that sociology is written in an obtuse language that the public cannot comprehend—we point to the problems that develop when sociology is too readily incorporated into American culture and society. The danger is that the more popular sociology is, the less likely it will be to maintain the sharp intellectual edge that made its incorporation possible in the first place.     

Developing a manpower strategy for an industry

This paper considers the following issues for developing an industry manpower strategy. An idea of the national system that exists for implementing a manpower strategy. The main questions arising from the strategy, and a definition of manpower planning. From this, the information and analysis techniques used to identify the strategy. The first application produces a manpower picture of the foundry industry. For company manpower planning the paper describes a manpower model of a company, and how the relationship between the activity and employment patterns of boundries was investigated. The industry findings are verified by company manpower planning investigations using the same information and techniques. The conclusions discuss some of the strengths and weaknesses of using this approach.     

Risk Perception in the U.K. Oil and Gas Production Industry: Are Expert Loss‐Prevention Managers' Perceptions Different From Those of Members of the Public?

This article investigates potential differences in risk perception between experts (loss-prevention managers in the U.K. oil and gas production industry) and nonexperts (managers and students). Extant research on expert versus nonexpert perceptions of risk is reviewed, followed by the present study concerning risk perceptions of seven pen-picture scenarios involving the occurrence of hazardous events in the U.K. oil and gas production industry. In contrast to many of the earlier studies of expert versus nonexpert perceptions of risk, the present analysis concludes that experts did not judge the overall riskiness of the portrayed hazardous events as less risky than the nonexperts. Nevertheless, the experts believe more strongly than our nonexperts that the risks portrayed in the scenarios pose little threat to future generations, are more precisely known, and are relatively controllable. Use of multiple regression analysis to help uncover the basis of overall riskiness assessments for expert and lay respondents was inconclusive, however. Finally, little evidence was found that nonexperts were any more heterogeneous in their risk perceptions than experts. It may be that the nature of the risks assessed in the present study may account for the general lack of clear expert versus nonexpert differences in overall perceptions of the riskiness of hazardous events in the North Sea. Earlier findings of strong expert versus nonexpert differences in risk perception assessed hazards of major public concern. It is inferred that using such extreme hazards may have resulted in an exaggerated view of differences in expert versus public (nonexpert) perception of risk.