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91.
92.
Wild assumptions, estimates and number games are made in regard to irregular migration flows. While the numbers cited are, in fact, often dated and of unclear origin, reports use such numbers to suggest a rise in irregular migration; they also usually assume that irregular entry and, to some extent, overstaying are the only significant pathways into irregularity. To properly account for irregular migration flows, however, both in- and outflows, as well as the complex ways of becoming (or ceasing to be) an “irregular migrant”, have to be included. Thus, apart from irregular migration flows in the narrow sense, like unlawful entry and emigration of persons (unrecorded returns, registered voluntary returns and deportations), other flows – notably status-related inflows (overstaying, withdrawal of residence status, rejection of asylum claims), status-related outflows (regularisation, ex lege changes of the legal status of irregular migrants, etc.) and flows related to vital events (births and deaths), must be considered. The article provides a critical appraisal of available data sources, indicators, estimates and methods to estimate irregular migration flows. In the context of a case study, we then analyse statistics of apprehensions at the EUROPEAN UNION’s external borders in Eastern Europe as indicators of geographical flows -- migration flows in the narrow sense -- arguing that despite the many limitations of the available data, the data can nevertheless be used as indicators of certain trends. 相似文献
93.
Lia O'Brien Dustin Albert Jason Chein Laurence Steinberg 《Journal of research on adolescence》2011,21(4):747-753
Adolescents take more risks in the presence of their peers, but the mechanism through which peer presence affects risky decision‐making is unknown. We propose that the presence of peers increases the salience of the immediate rewards of a risky choice. The current study examined the effect of peer presence on reward sensitivity in a sample of 100 late adolescents ages 18 through 20 (M=18.5) using a delay discounting task, which assesses an individual's preference for immediate versus delayed rewards. Participants were randomly assigned to complete the task alone or with 2 same‐age, same‐sex peers observing. Consistent with our prediction, adolescents demonstrated a greater preference for immediate rewards when with their peers than when alone. Heightened risk taking by adolescents in the company of their friends may be due in part to the effect that being with one's peers has on reward sensitivity. 相似文献
94.
The internet contains billions of documents. We show that document frequencies in large decentralized textual databases can capture the cross‐sectional variation in the occurrence frequencies of social phenomena. We characterize the econometric conditions under which such proxying is likely. We also propose using recently‐introduced internet search volume indexes as proxies for fundamental locational traits, and discuss their advantages and limitations. We then successfully proxy for a number of economic and demographic variables in US cities and states. We further obtain document‐frequency measures of corruption by country and US state and replicate the econometric results of previous research studying its covariates. Finally, we provide the first measure of corruption in American cities. Poverty, population size, service‐sector orientation, and ethnic fragmentation are shown to predict higher levels of corruption in urban America. 相似文献
95.
In this paper, we demonstrate how public opinion surveys can be designed to collect information pertinent to computational behavior modeling, and we present the results of a public opinion and behavior survey conducted during the 2009–2010 H1N1 influenza pandemic. The results are used to parameterize the Health Belief Model of individual health‐protective decision making. Survey subjects were asked questions about their perceptions of the then‐circulating influenza and attitudes towards two personal protective behaviors: vaccination and avoidance of crowds. We empirically address two important issues in applying the Health Belief Model of behavior to computational infectious disease simulation: (1) the factors dynamically influencing the states of the Health Belief Model variables and (2) the appropriateness of the Health Belief Model in describing self‐protective behavior in the context of pandemic influenza. 相似文献
96.
97.
The doctrinal basis for resolving interstate water disputes is in a confused state because of a recent Supreme Court decision which holds that market forces should determine the allocation of interstate ground waters even though the same court has consistently held that doctrine of equitable apportionment governs interstate surface waters. Although there are arguments for both approaches, the doctrine of equitable apportionment is preferable in that by allocating shares to individual states it provides stability for state and regional water planning while limiting the excesses of territorial chauvinism by requiring sharing. The market approach is a single edged sword which protects a state wanting to take water from another. Equitable apportionment, on the other hand, is a double edged sword which protects both states and allocates to each an equitable share of interstate water resources. 相似文献
98.
99.
This article presents a Listeria monocytogenes growth model in milk at the farm bulk tank stage. The main objective was to judge the feasibility and value to risk assessors of introducing a complex model, including a complete thermal model, within a microbial quantitative risk assessment scheme. Predictive microbiology models are used under varying temperature conditions to predict bacterial growth. Input distributions are estimated based on data in the literature, when it is available. If not, reasonable assumptions are made for the considered context. Previously published results based on a Bayesian analysis of growth parameters are used. A Monte Carlo simulation that forecasts bacterial growth is the focus of this study. Three scenarios that take account of the variability and uncertainty of growth parameters are compared. The effect of a sophisticated thermal model taking account of continuous variations in milk temperature was tested by comparison with a simplified model where milk temperature was considered as constant. Limited multiplication of bacteria within the farm bulk tank was modeled. The two principal factors influencing bacterial growth were found to be tank thermostat regulation and bacterial population growth parameters. The dilution phenomenon due to the introduction of new milk was the main factor affecting the final bacterial concentration. The results show that a model that assumes constant environmental conditions at an average temperature should be acceptable for this process. This work may constitute a first step toward exposure assessment for L. monocytogenes in milk. In addition, this partly conceptual work provides guidelines for other risk assessments where continuous variation of a parameter needs to be taken into account. 相似文献
100.
This study investigates sociologically the predictions of the cognitive developmental, the social learning, and the interactive models of gender-role development. We examine the effect of a variety of variables on gender-role stereotyping among a sample of 1264 four-, five-, and six-year-old children enrolled in preschool programs in a major metropolitan area. Age, sex, and race are found to be significantly related to children's gender stereotypes. With age, children increasingly associate stereotypical behavior patterns with the male and female gender roles. Children are also found to demonstrate a higher degree of gender-role stereotyping with regard to members of their own sex. An age/sex interaction effect indicates that the tendency of children to demonstrate a higher degree of same-sex stereotyping is most pronounced among four-year-olds. Finally, black children are found to be less gender-typed in their images of males and females than are white children. These data suggest that the interactive model, including both social and cognitive factors, is the best explanation of these data and should be further investigated. 相似文献