Parsimonious periodic autoregressive models for time series with evolving trend and seasonality

Statistics and Computing - This paper proposes an extension of Periodic AutoRegressive (PAR) modelling for time series with evolving features. The large scale of modern datasets, in fact, implies...     

Indigenous and gendered persons and peoples in business ethics education: Intersections of Indigenous wisdoms and de Beauvoirian existentialism

The purpose of this paper is to explore how business ethics textbooks include Indigenous and gendered persons and peoples and whether they acknowledge Indigenous philosophies and theories. We explore 363 cases from eighteen (18) business ethics textbooks. A form and theme based content analysis was employed to help us better understand the inclusion, obfuscation and omission of Indigenous and gendered persons. A purpose of business ethics education is to disrupt injustice and oppressive practices in business. We find that business ethics education can provide more inclusive and respectful cases as it relates to Indigenous and gendered characters. There are cases that marginalize, obfuscate and omit Indigenous peoples, females, and gender diverse persons. This study contributes to diversity scholarship by identifying ways in which Indigenous and gendered persons and peoples can be included in management and business ethics education.     

The battle over the allocation of interstate waters : Two contending doctrines

The doctrinal basis for resolving interstate water disputes is in a confused state because of a recent Supreme Court decision which holds that market forces should determine the allocation of interstate ground waters even though the same court has consistently held that doctrine of equitable apportionment governs interstate surface waters. Although there are arguments for both approaches, the doctrine of equitable apportionment is preferable in that by allocating shares to individual states it provides stability for state and regional water planning while limiting the excesses of territorial chauvinism by requiring sharing. The market approach is a single edged sword which protects a state wanting to take water from another. Equitable apportionment, on the other hand, is a double edged sword which protects both states and allocates to each an equitable share of interstate water resources.     

Stochastically Modeling Listeria Monocytogenes Growth in Farm Tank Milk

This article presents a Listeria monocytogenes growth model in milk at the farm bulk tank stage. The main objective was to judge the feasibility and value to risk assessors of introducing a complex model, including a complete thermal model, within a microbial quantitative risk assessment scheme. Predictive microbiology models are used under varying temperature conditions to predict bacterial growth. Input distributions are estimated based on data in the literature, when it is available. If not, reasonable assumptions are made for the considered context. Previously published results based on a Bayesian analysis of growth parameters are used. A Monte Carlo simulation that forecasts bacterial growth is the focus of this study. Three scenarios that take account of the variability and uncertainty of growth parameters are compared. The effect of a sophisticated thermal model taking account of continuous variations in milk temperature was tested by comparison with a simplified model where milk temperature was considered as constant. Limited multiplication of bacteria within the farm bulk tank was modeled. The two principal factors influencing bacterial growth were found to be tank thermostat regulation and bacterial population growth parameters. The dilution phenomenon due to the introduction of new milk was the main factor affecting the final bacterial concentration. The results show that a model that assumes constant environmental conditions at an average temperature should be acceptable for this process. This work may constitute a first step toward exposure assessment for L. monocytogenes in milk. In addition, this partly conceptual work provides guidelines for other risk assessments where continuous variation of a parameter needs to be taken into account.     

Children's gender-role stereotypes: A sociological investigation of psychological models

This study investigates sociologically the predictions of the cognitive developmental, the social learning, and the interactive models of gender-role development. We examine the effect of a variety of variables on gender-role stereotyping among a sample of 1264 four-, five-, and six-year-old children enrolled in preschool programs in a major metropolitan area. Age, sex, and race are found to be significantly related to children's gender stereotypes. With age, children increasingly associate stereotypical behavior patterns with the male and female gender roles. Children are also found to demonstrate a higher degree of gender-role stereotyping with regard to members of their own sex. An age/sex interaction effect indicates that the tendency of children to demonstrate a higher degree of same-sex stereotyping is most pronounced among four-year-olds. Finally, black children are found to be less gender-typed in their images of males and females than are white children. These data suggest that the interactive model, including both social and cognitive factors, is the best explanation of these data and should be further investigated.     

Children of problem gamblers

An anonymous 37-item Health Survey was administered to 844 randomly selected ninth- to twelfth-grade students in four Southern California public high schools. Systematic information was gathered about their general health, quality of life, school and work adjustment, involvement with a range of potentially addictive substances and activities, and indications of psychosocial maladjustment, including difficulties with the law and suicide attempts. A series of self-ratings of students who characterized one or both of their parents as having a compulsive gambling problem (N=52) were contrasted with those of their classmates who reported no gambling problem among their parents (N=792). Findings have been grouped into three major areas: (a) comparative levels and reported effects of involvement with health-threatening behaviors (i.e., smoking, drinking, drug use, overeating, and gambling); (b) comparative incidence of psychosocial risk indicators (i.e., broken home, unhappy childhood and teenage years, legal action pending, overall quality of youth rated as poor); and (c) comparative incidence of dysphoria, school and work problems, and suicide attempts. Across each of these areas children of parents said to gamble excessively were found to be at consistently greater risk than their classmates who did not describe their parents as having a problem with compulsive gambling. These findings strongly suggest that without early and competent intervention, children of parents who gamble excessively: (a) will be seriously disadvantaged when attempting to solve their present adolescent and future adult problems of living; and (b) as a consequence are, themselves, high-risk candidates for developing one or another form of dysfunctional adjustment, including an addictive pattern of behavior.