Parameter changes in a regression model with autocorrelated errors

This study is a Bayesian analysis of a regression model with autocorrelated errors which exhibits one change in the regression parameters and where the autocorrelation parameter is unknown

Using a normal-gamma prior for all the parameters except the shift point which has a uniform distribution, the marginal posterior distribution of the regression parameters, the shift point and the precision of the errors is found. It is important to know where the shift occurred thus the main emphasis is with the posterior distribution of the shift point

A numerical study assesses the effect of the values of the shift point and the magnitude of the shift on the posterior distribution of the shift point. The posterior distribution of the shift point is more sensitive to change, which occurs in the middle of the observations than to one which occurs at an extreme of the data.     

How to Sociologically Read a Movie

Movies embody cultural values; those of class, gender, ethnicity, region, and nation come immediately to mind. They also reflect deeper civilizational assumptions such as Enlightenment values of moral redemption through human agency toward social progress that will be examined here by comparing the movies Avatar (2009) and District 9 (2009). The methodology is to identify backstage cultural assumptions that have to be assumed to make sense out of frontstage plot development. The idea of “species jumping” is introduced to illustrate the deteriorating idea that distinctly human agency is capable of producing a better social world and attaining secular moral redemption as the protagonists in both films reincarnate into alien species.     

Turnover‐induced Forgetting and its Impact on Productivity

In this paper we investigate organizational forgetting, the notion that a firm's knowledge does not persist over time, exploring knowledge depreciation caused by changes in human capital. We first conduct an in‐depth exploratory case study to identify organizational forgetting. The empirical evidence suggests that organizational forgetting occurs when abrupt personnel turnover takes place. The data reveal a forgetting pattern that is entirely episodic in nature. Thereupon we conduct a confirmatory piece, using multiple regression models, to measure the impact of organizational forgetting on overall productivity. We find that, as a result of repeated forgetting processes, productivity falls in spite of continued output accumulation because of changes in the characteristics of the resource where experience resides.     

Democracy Cannot Survive Overpopulation

This article addresses increasing concerns about the decline of democracy at all levels of government. It is shown that overpopulation and technology are major causes of this decline. It would be unwise to try to stop the development of technology; therefore it is urgent that we move quickly to address the problems of overpopulation.     

Diabetes, aging and physical activity

Diabetes mellitus (DM) is a metabolic disease affecting the regulation of insulin and glucose causing a disruption in the normal control of counterregulatory hormones and macronutrients, resulting in blood glucose accumulation. Metabolic deregulation leads to the production of noxious substances that have a particular propensity for damaging vascular and nervous structures. Physiological changes observed with aging are correlated with a concomitant increase in DM and its associated complications. Long-term complications, including peripheral and central neuropathies, micro- and macrovascular damage, retinopathy, and nephropathy are the major causes of mortality in diabetics [cardiovascular disease (CVD) being the primary complication causing death in this population]. All-cause mortality is three to four times greater in the DM population; hence, management of DM is of timely importance, particularly with a projected prevalence increase of 134% within the next 25 years among individuals over the age of 65 years. Exercise modalities, including endurance and resistance training, were employed to improve glycemic/metabolic control and to ameliorate the progression of DM-related complications. Several risk factors, including glucose levels, blood pressure, lipid/cholesterol profile, and BMI, are reportedly improved with these modes of exercise. However, not all studies demonstrate an improvement in risk factors, but consistently note improvement in complications and a reduction of DM incidence. There is convincing evidence that exercise, with or without specific improvements to traditional DM-related risk factors, is an effective therapy for the management of DM.The Canadian Centre for Activity and Aging is affiliated with St. Joseph’s Health Care and The University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario, Canada.     

Paretos hermeneutischer Positivismus

An analysis of Pareto’s action theory making use of practical syllogism has as a result the differentiation of an externalist and an internalist part of his model of action. The externalist part is positivist in character and therefore unacceptable. It contains two classical positivist positions: a strict demarcation between metaphysics and science and the conspiracy-theory of error. Both were rightly criticised by Karl Popper. The internalist part contains the principle “reasons as causes”, which was later made famous by Donald Davidson. In comparison with Max Weber it will be shown that this is the rationality principle of interpretative sociology. Bringing internalist and externalist perspective together Pareto’s position can be called hermeneutical positivism. The article describes an hitherto neglected effect of positivist epistemology on sociology, and specifies action-theoretical fundaments of interpretative and explanative sociology.     

Job Satisfaction: A Study of Sydney Adults

About one quarter of the 20,434 men and about one fifth of the 17,211 women who had a Medicheck screening expressed dissatisfaction with their job. Single men and single women were the least satisfied. The most positive aspects of work for men and women were that the job was interesting and that there was independence and freedom. Boredom, as well as not using one's potential, discriminated clearly between those satisfied with their job and those not, for both men and women. Job dissatisfaction was closely associated with other psychosocial problems and in particular with life dissatisfaction.     

The effects of maternal smoking on infant health

Maternal smoking has serious consequences for the developing fetus and infant, including a higher probability that the infant will be born prematurely and at low birth weight, will require admission to neonatal intensive care, and die during infancy. Data from Alabama birth certificates for births occurring between 1988 and 1991 were analyzed using log linear methods to calculate relative risks of adverse pregnancy outcomes and infant death. Smoking by mothers during pregnancy is associated with an elevated risk of infant death, low birth weight, and prematurity, controlling for mother's educational attainment, age, marital status, race, and trimester prenatal care was initiated. Smoking was also associated with a higher rate of admission to neonatal intensive care and to deaths from SIDS and respiratory causes. Reducing maternal smoking can contribute to a reduction of premature and low weight births and infant deaths. Because of the difficulty of stopping smoking, efforts need to be directed at preventing younger women from beginning to smoke.An earlier version of this paper was presented at the Southern Demographic Association annual meeting in New Orleans in October 1993.