Working life and retirement pensions in Spain: The simulated impact of a parametric reform

This article aims to offer an ex ante evaluation of the impact of a parametric reform of the Spanish pension system that would involve increasing the reference period used to calculate benefits, an approach proposed many times by various actors in the socio‐economic field. Such gradual change may be categorized as a non‐structural reform of the pension system. This contrasts with reforms of a structural nature that have been very popular in Latin America and elsewhere, involving the creation of defined contribution individual account schemes. As regards the parametric reform proposed in this article, the main findings indicate that it would have a small but negative impact on pension income for pensioners and would reduce income distribution.     

Deprivation using satisfaction measures in Spain: An evaluation of unemployment benefits

The evaluation of social programs constitutes an important aspect in the modeling of economic policies. On the basis that the measurement of well being through subjective measures provides a broader perspective than through objective economic variables, this paper first identifies the determinants of deprivation in Spain, in monetary terms, and in non-monetary terms using satisfaction variables. In addition to establishing that the more unequal the income distribution within a group, the less income-satisfied is the individual, we find that unemployment is one of the main determinants of deprivation and satisfaction. Accordingly, we propose a reform of unemployment benefit policy that maintains individuals at the same utility level as when employed, rather than applying the current benefit system. Our policy conclusions reveal that the public budget dedicated to paying benefits to restore satisfaction levels, during the period 1994-1999, would have increased by €2,536,165.13 thousand on an average annually. It could be a desirable policy in good times but, since it increases public spending and thus public deficit, economic policy makers should decide whether it is adequate in rainy days.     

Compatible prior distributions for directed acyclic graph models

Summary.  The application of certain Bayesian techniques, such as the Bayes factor and model averaging, requires the specification of prior distributions on the parameters of alternative models. We propose a new method for constructing compatible priors on the parameters of models nested in a given directed acyclic graph model, using a conditioning approach. We define a class of parameterizations that is consistent with the modular structure of the directed acyclic graph and derive a procedure, that is invariant within this class, which we name reference conditioning.     

Demographic Responses to Economic Recessions in Latin America Since 1900*

This paper explores the linkages between economic cycles and demographic processes in Latin America since 1900. We identify the mechanisms through which economic conditions have an impact on demographic outcomes and assess the demographic and socioeconomic consequences of the 1980s. Selected historical evidence is reviewed to illustrate the effects of economic cycles in Western Europe and, aided by an heuristic framework, tentative hypotheses are derived to interpret empirical evidence about the effects of the 1929 and 1980 depressions in selected Latin American countries. Results show that the demograhic consequences of the Great Depression were nontrivial. The analyses of demographic and socioeconomic responses of the post-1980 recession, however, reveal only weak linkages for some outcomes. We argue that the weak relationships may mask important transformations currently underway and conclude with a discussion of the implications for future research.     

Use of bayesian analysis to design of clinical trials with one treatment

Assuming a Weibull distribution, the posterior distribution for the median survival time is derived in the presence of arbitrary right censorship. In the design of clinical triaLs, suppose k follow-up periods have been completed and it is desired to plan the follow-up period k+1. In this context, criteria are presented that can be employed in determining the number of new patients to be enrolled in the follow-up period k+1.     

Constant hazard against a change-point alternative: a bayesian approach with censored data

A Bayesian approach to the problem of a constant hazard with a single change-point is developed using noninformative reference priors. We also present a generalization for the comparison for two treatments.     

Ridge regression versus ols by pitman's closeness under quadratic and fisher's loss

The existence of values of the ridge parameter such that ridge regression is preferable to OLS by the Pitman nearness criterion under both the quadratic and the Fisher's loss is shown. Preference regions of the two estimators under the above loss functions are found. An upper bound for the value of the Pitman's measure of closeness, independent of a deterministic or stochastic choice of the ridge parameter, is given.     

A Note on Whittle's Likelihood

The approximate likelihood function introduced by Whittle has been used to estimate the spectral density and certain parameters of a variety of time series models. In this note we attempt to empirically quantify the loss of efficiency of Whittle's method in nonstandard settings. A recently developed representation of some first-order non-Gaussian stationary autoregressive process allows a direct comparison of the true likelihood function with that of Whittle. The conclusion is that Whittle's likelihood can produce unreliable estimates in the non-Gaussian case, even for moderate sample sizes. Moreover, for small samples, and if the autocorrelation of the process is high, Whittle's approximation is not efficient even in the Gaussian case. While these facts are known to some extent, the present study sheds more light on the degree of efficiency loss incurred by using Whittle's likelihood, in both Gaussian and non-Gaussian cases.     

Population Growth and the Distribution of Household Income: The Case of Brazil*

Special tabulations of the 1970 census of Brazil are used to estimate fertility and mortality rates by level of household income. Projections to the year 2000 indicate that the poor population will grow substantially faster than the rich population. Projections that simulate upward social mobility and declines in fertility and mortality levels do not alter this conclusion. Differential rates of natural increase by income strata are shown to contribute to an increase in the proportion of the population in the lower income strata, by the end of the century. Although these differentials could be reduced by a more equitable distribution of income, the style of development in Brazil has yielded only a small increase in the real income of the poor. Analysis of the income elasticity of fertility and mortality at different levels of household earnings suggest that this pattern of economic growth will further widen differences in the rate of natural increase by socioeconomic strata. The analysis of the demographic behavior of population subgroups questions the assumption that a lower rate of aggregate population growth in developing countries necessarily contributes to a more equitable distribution of income.     

On the estimation of the Lorenz curve under complex sampling designs

Statistical Methods & Applications - This paper focuses on the estimation of the concentration curve of a finite population, when data are collected according to a complex sampling design with...