Truncated sequential change-point detection based on renewal counting processes II

The standard approach in change-point theory is to base the statistical analysis on a sample of fixed size. Alternatively, one observes some random phenomenon sequentially and takes action as soon as one observes some statistically significant deviation from the “normal” behaviour. The present paper is a continuation of Gut and Steinebach [2002. Truncated sequential change-point detection based on renewal counting processes. Scand. J. Statist. 29, 693–719] the main point being that here we look in more detail into the behaviour of the relevant stopping times, in particular the time it takes from the actual change-point until the change is detected, more precisely, we prove asymptotics for stopping times under alternatives.     

How Bad Can a Crisis Be If It Does Not Top the News?

Sudden onset of front-page news about the U.S. financial crisis, beginning September 6, 2008, may have exacerbated underlying financial problems and facilitated the spread of risk panic to other nations.     

Leading Indicators for the Service Sector

Since the service sector currently accounts for a large and growing share of U.S. economic activity, we have undertaken to develop indicators that throw light on its current status and future prospects. A composite coincident index of aggregate economic activity in the service sector is constructed, and a growth-cycle chronology is identified based on growth rates in this index and in its components. Then several macroeconomic leading indicators of service are identified, and from them a composite leading index is constructed. The growth rate in this index is found to give advance warnings of major swings in the growth of the service sector.     

Death and Transfiguration: The Final Hours of Muscovite Monks

The aim of this article is to draw attention to certain theological and liturgical factors that enter into the composition process of hagiography, and in particular, in the depiction of the death scenes of Muscovite monks. The monks who wrote the major portion of medieval Russian literature did so from a particular cultural context in which theological and liturgical texts played a prominent role. The article looks for evidence of this monastic culture in the memorials written to honour deceased members of monastic communities. It outlines some features of the monastic culture that produced the vitae, rehearses previous investigations into the production of Russian medieval hagiography and offers a detailed analysis of four texts from the Muscovite period. The Dormition and Transfiguration are important foundational motifs underlying death scenes in particular. Attention to liturgical and theological principles in other saints’ lives and biographical sketches will enhance our appreciation for the artistry of medieval Russian authors, who appropriate a lengthy Christian tradition in the production of their texts.     

Looking at Journals from Both Sides

The author, a professor in the field of communication, describes his contrasting experiences with publishing an open access society journal and advising a regional association in regards to turning over publication of its journal to a major commercial publishing firm. Using his experience of producing an open access journal as a foundation, he argues for the intrinsic importance of establishing credibility and exercising personal care in the production and maintenance of a journal. The author argues that current efforts by some societies to increase access to their journals through outsourcing to commercial publishers may be counterproductive to the fundamental goal of disseminating knowledge.     

‘Somebody Watching You’: Impact of Reflecting Teams on Hope in Couple Relationships

Reflecting teams (RTs) represent both an epistemological stance and a therapeutic technique. Most commonly associated with narrative and systemic approaches to therapy, RTs offer an outsider perspective that can bring hope and alternative narratives and perspectives for therapists and clients to explore. Relational hope is a little researched concept in the field of couple therapy research. This study explores the experience of RTs in couple relationships and the aspects of the experience that couples describe as connected to a sense of hope for their relationship. The study also considers whether difference in attachment style shows any relationship with hope in couple relationships before and after the clients’ session with a reflecting team. Couples completed questionnaires about their attachment style, demographics, and relational hope and were given the option to complete an interview about their experience with the reflecting team within 1 month of their therapy session. Our findings suggest that RTs contribute positively to hope in couple relationships particularly for clients who present with an anxious attachment style. This direction for research is important because there is very little research about hope in couple relationships despite its importance (Merolla, 2014; Snyder, 2002) and there is no research about what aspects of a reflecting team contribute to hope in couple relationships. Analysis of interviews indicates a number of features of the reflecting team feedback that were valued by clients.