Use of Markov Chain Monte Carlo Analysis with a Physiologically-Based Pharmacokinetic Model of Methylmercury to Estimate Exposures in U.S. Women of Childbearing Age

A Bayesian approach, implemented using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) analysis, was applied with a physiologically‐based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model of methylmercury (MeHg) to evaluate the variability of MeHg exposure in women of childbearing age in the U.S. population. The analysis made use of the newly available National Health and Nutrition Survey (NHANES) blood and hair mercury concentration data for women of age 16–49 years (sample size, 1,582). Bayesian analysis was performed to estimate the population variability in MeHg exposure (daily ingestion rate) implied by the variation in blood and hair concentrations of mercury in the NHANES database. The measured variability in the NHANES blood and hair data represents the result of a process that includes interindividual variation in exposure to MeHg and interindividual variation in the pharmacokinetics (distribution, clearance) of MeHg. The PBPK model includes a number of pharmacokinetic parameters (e.g., tissue volumes, partition coefficients, rate constants for metabolism and elimination) that can vary from individual to individual within the subpopulation of interest. Using MCMC analysis, it was possible to combine prior distributions of the PBPK model parameters with the NHANES blood and hair data, as well as with kinetic data from controlled human exposures to MeHg, to derive posterior distributions that refine the estimates of both the population exposure distribution and the pharmacokinetic parameters. In general, based on the populations surveyed by NHANES, the results of the MCMC analysis indicate that a small fraction, less than 1%, of the U.S. population of women of childbearing age may have mercury exposures greater than the EPA RfD for MeHg of 0.1 μg/kgg/day, and that there are few, if any, exposures greater than the ATSDR MRL of 0.3 μgg/kgg/day. The analysis also indicates that typical exposures may be greater than previously estimated from food consumption surveys, but that the variability in exposure within the population of U.S. women of childbearing age may be less than previously assumed.     

Charisma as signal: An evolutionary perspective on charismatic leadership

We present an evolutionary perspective on charismatic leadership, arguing that charisma has evolved as a credible signal of a person's ability to solve a coordination challenge requiring urgent collective action from group members. We suggest that a better understanding of charisma's evolutionary and biological origins and functions can provide a broader perspective in which to situate current debates surrounding the utility and validity of charismatic leadership as a construct in the social sciences. We outline several key challenges which have shaped our followership psychology, and argue that the benefits of successful coordination in ancestral environments has led to the evolution of context-dependent psychological mechanisms which are especially attuned to cues and signals of outstanding personal leadership qualities. We elaborate on several implications of this signaling hypothesis of charismatic leadership, including opportunities for deception (dishonest signaling) and for large-scale coordination.     

The age of exploration and exploitation: Younger-looking leaders endorsed for change and older-looking leaders endorsed for stability

The current contribution extends theorizing on leadership and the exploration–exploitation dilemma using an evolutionary perspective. A theoretical connection is made between the exploration–exploitation dilemma and age-biased leadership preferences for exploratory change versus stable exploitation. For the majority of human evolution our species was semi- or entirely nomadic and the trade-off between exploration versus exploitation had substantial physical- and experience-based requirements which align with leadership opportunities as moderated by age. Thus, given the consistency and importance of correctly assigning leadership for the exploration–exploitation dilemma, human evolution has likely selected for age-biased leadership endorsement. Across three experiments we find that younger-looking leaders are endorsed for times of exploratory change and older-looking leaders for stable exploitation. Further, our results indicated that older leaders are endorsed for leading conservative exploitation of nonrenewable resources and younger leaders for exploration of renewable alternatives (i.e., green leadership). The results introduce an age-biased leadership endorsement hypothesis.     

Revisiting the stock price impact of quality awards

In an event study, Hendricks and Singhal [Hendricks KB, Singhal VR. Quality awards and the market value of the firm: an empirical investigation. Management Sci 1996;42:415–36.] find evidence that firms that win quality awards are further rewarded with a stock price increase on the day of the award announcement. We revisit Hendricks and Singhal (1996), extend their research and find four reasons why management, owners and analysts should be cautious about expecting an abnormal return when a firm wins a quality award. First, in our sample of Baldrige Award winners, the evidence of a stock price response on the announcement day is only marginally significant. Second, in our sample of State quality award winners, the announcement day relationship between stock returns and winning awards is not significant. Third, in the most recent subperiod, 1992–1997, we find no evidence of positive abnormal returns. Fourth, the marginally significant Baldrige results are actually driven by just four companies. A company-by-company microanalysis reveals that only 50% of the award winners experienced positive abnormal returns. The diminishing stock price response on event day does not necessarily imply a lack of stockholder rewards. Evidence from other studies suggests that the stockholders are rewarded for successful total quality management (TQM) implementation, but the rewards can come long before and after the formal award is presented. From a shareholder value perspective, TQM still matters but the award ceremonies may not.     

A test statistic for weighted runs

A new test statistic based on runs of weighted deviations is introduced. Its use for observations sampled from independent normal distributions is worked out in detail. It supplements the classic χ² test which ignores the ordering of observations and provides additional sensitivity to local deviations from expectations. The exact distribution of the statistic in the non-parametric case is derived and an algorithm to compute p-values is presented. The computational complexity of the algorithm is derived employing a novel identity for integer partitions.     

Development of a Unit Risk Factor for 1,3-Butadiene Based on an Updated Carcinogenic Toxicity Assessment

The Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) has developed an inhalation unit risk factor (URF) for 1,3-butadiene based on leukemia mortality in an updated epidemiological study on styrene-butadiene rubber production workers conducted by researchers at the University of Alabama at Birmingham. Exposure estimates were updated and an exposure estimate validation study as well as dose-response modeling were conducted by these researchers. This information was not available to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency when it prepared its health assessment of 1,3-butadiene in 2002. An extensive analysis conducted by TCEQ discusses dose-response modeling, estimating risk for the general population from occupational workers, estimating risk for potentially sensitive subpopulations, effect of occupational exposure estimation error, and use of mortality rates to predict incidence. The URF is 5.0 × 10⁻⁷ per μg/m³ or 1.1 × 10⁻⁶ per ppb and is based on a Cox regression dose-response model using restricted continuous data with age as a covariate, and a linear low-dose extrapolation default approach using the 95% lower confidence limit as the point of departure. Age-dependent adjustment factors were applied to account for possible increased susceptibility for early life exposure. The air concentration at 1 in 100,000 excess leukemia mortality, the no-significant-risk level, is 20 μg/m³ (9.1 ppb), which is slightly lower than the TCEQ chronic reference value of 33 μg/m³ (15 ppb) protective of ovarian atrophy. These values will be used to evaluate ambient air monitoring data so the general public is protected against adverse health effects from chronic exposure to 1,3-butadiene.     

“To be a business and to keep our humanity”

In recent years, the political nature of nonprofit funding has been well established, with research focusing on increased demands for accountability (Eikenberry and Kluver, 2004), difficulties in selecting accountability measures (Reed, Jones, and Irvine, 2005), and the shift from organizational mission that can occur while trying to adhere to funding requirements (Adcroft and Willis, 2005; Parsons and Broadbridge, 2004). This article examines the dynamics between a funder and the nonprofit organizations it funds within an evolving accountability process. Specifically, we use qualitative methods to examine the negotiations between the funder and the nonprofits. Both sides in the funding relationship face tensions as they attempt to work within the constraints of this specific funding regime while trying to maintain their focus on social justice outcomes.     

Strategic management of consumer services

A period of more rigorous strategic management is under way in consumer service businesses. In banking, insurance, lodging, media, retailing, housing, restaurants and education, more growth must come from competitive share shift. This paper b shows the need for a different set of strategies to win in services than have been shaped in the product business context. Specific illustrations show how leading U.S. consumer service companies are building strategic advantage while also improving the value of their business.     

Museums, friends, and lovers in the New South: Laura's Web, 1909-1931

Laura Bragg, a member of the first graduating class at Simmons College, journeyed to Charleston as a New Woman in 1909. As the first woman director of a major scientific museum in the United States, Bragg transformed the Charleston Museum into a public education institution and became an innovative leader in museum education. This article documents Bragg's contributions within the context of antebellum culture where the Southern Belle was placed on a Victorian pedestal and Boston marriages were an unknown phenomenon. Using extensive and hitherto unpublished correspondence, the authors detail Bragg's lesbian relationships and describe her network within the homosexual male community during the era of the Charleston Renaissance.