A Framework for Time Varying Parameter Regression Modeling

A framework for time varying parameter regression models is developed and employed in modeling and forecasting price expectations, using the Livingston data. Alternative model formulations, which include various choices for both the stochastic processes generating the varying parameters and the sets of explanatory variables, are examined and compared by using this framework. These models, some of which have appeared elsewhere and some of which are new, are estimated and used to assess the expectations formation process.     

Contraceptive Responsibility among Male University Students

Abstract

This paper assesses the male contribution to contraceptive mismanagement and unwanted pregnancy. The subjects were 109 students at the University of Melbourne. A high incidence of risk-taking was reported, and almost one-fifth of the sexually experienced men stated that they had been involved in an unwanted pregnancy. A small group of these reported more than one such incident. The underlying reasons for poor contraceptive technique seemed to be related to two beliefs: that contraception is a female responsibility, and that sexual intercourse should be entirely spontaneous and unplanned.     

Bayesian palaeoclimate reconstruction

Summary.  We consider the problem of reconstructing prehistoric climates by using fossil data that have been extracted from lake sediment cores. Such reconstructions promise to provide one of the few ways to validate modern models of climate change. A hierarchical Bayesian modelling approach is presented and its use, inversely, is demonstrated in a relatively small but statistically challenging exercise: the reconstruction of prehistoric climate at Glendalough in Ireland from fossil pollen. This computationally intensive method extends current approaches by explicitly modelling uncertainty and reconstructing entire climate histories. The statistical issues that are raised relate to the use of compositional data (pollen) with covariates (climate) which are available at many modern sites but are missing for the fossil data. The compositional data arise as mixtures and the missing covariates have a temporal structure. Novel aspects of the analysis include a spatial process model for compositional data, local modelling of lattice data, the use, as a prior, of a random walk with long-tailed increments, a two-stage implementation of the Markov chain Monte Carlo approach and a fast approximate procedure for cross-validation in inverse problems. We present some details, contrasting its reconstructions with those which have been generated by a method in use in the palaeoclimatology literature. We suggest that the method provides a basis for resolving important challenging issues in palaeoclimate research. We draw attention to several challenging statistical issues that need to be overcome.     

The outcomes of a longitudinal study of non‐organic failure‐to‐thrive

Individuals who had failed‐to‐thrive for non‐organic reasons received psychosocial intervention which was tailor‐made to their particular needs during childhood. Their progress was followed up over 20 years later, including their physical growth and social and cognitive functioning. Not all clients showed the same outcomes. The quality of the parental relationship and the reason for the growth‐faltering were found to be related to the outcomes at 20 years. Unless they experienced a positive and sustained change in their life or circumstances, individuals who had experienced abuse showed poorer outcomes than those whose growth‐faltering had been thought due to neglect, lack of parenting or feeding dif?culties. Abuse tended to be a contributing factor to growth‐faltering more frequently in families where the parents were observed to have a poor relationship with each other. However, a signi?cant change in the quality of care given to the child and the emotional environment experienced by them resulted in positive outcomes 20 years later despite experiencing abuse during childhood. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Conceptual frameworks and the philosophical foundations of general living systems theory

The continued expansion and fragmentation of biological disciplines impede education, communication, and efficient advance of biological research. Reversing these trends may require a unification of theories and concepts from all levels of biological organization. One form of this unification is the statement of generalizations that apply to all living systems. We explore the philosophical foundations of general theories of living systems by analyzing conceptual frameworks as they apply to biology. This analysis examines the relation of empirical observation, theories, and conceptual frameworks within the context of an individual scientist's conceptual continuum. Also presented are a small set of translevel generalizations that articulate our conceptual framework of living systems in terms of organismic system organization, the environmental system-organismic system dyad, system capacity, and system incorporation. A set of procedural rules are stated which suggest minimum criteria for the evaluation of the explanatory adequacy of biological theories. The relation of this work to other similar analyses and syntheses of biological knowledge is discussed.