新时期我国基层民主建设现状及路径完善

十八大以来,我国的基层民主建设进入改革与发展的新时期。一方面,改革开放以来,我国基层民主建设取得了辉煌成绩;另一方面,在基层民主化过程中也出现了许多亟待解决的问题。面对新时期出现的众多难题,我们既要在实践中不断总结成功经验,又要与时俱进地摸索基层民主发展的新思路,为实现"两个一百年"的战略目标而努力。     

Five legitimate definitions of correlated equilibrium in games with incomplete information

Aumann's (1987) theorem shows that correlated equilibrium is an expression of Bayesian rationality. We extend this result to games with incomplete information.First, we rely on Harsanyi's (1967) model and represent the underlying multiperson decision problem as a fixed game with imperfect information. We survey four definitions of correlated equilibrium which have appeared in the literature. We show that these definitions are not equivalent to each other. We prove that one of them fits Aumann's framework; the agents normal form correlated equilibrium is an expression of Bayesian rationality in games with incomplete information.We also follow a universal Bayesian approach based on Mertens and Zamir's (1985) construction of the universal beliefs space. Hierarchies of beliefs over independent variables (states of nature) and dependent variables (actions) are then constructed simultaneously. We establish that the universal set of Bayesian solutions satisfies another extension of Aumann's theorem.We get the following corollary: once the types of the players are not fixed by the model, the various definitions of correlated equilibrium previously considered are equivalent.     

Conspicuous conservatism in risk choice

We analyze the risk levels chosen by agents who have private information regarding their quality, and whose performance will be judged and rewarded by outsiders. Assume that risk choice is observable. Agents will choose risk strategically to enhance their expected reputations. We show that conspicuous conservatism results: agents of different qualities choose levels below those that would be chosen if quality were observable. This happens because bad agents must cloak their identity by choosing the same risk level as good agents, and good agents are more likely to distinguish themselves if they reduce the risk level. Our results contrast starkly with those for the case when risk choice cannot be observed.

论传统相关产品市场界定方法在互联网即时通讯软件相关产品市场界定的适用

随着互联网产业竞争的日益加剧,互联网企业滥用市场支配地位案件也层出不穷,而＂奇虎360诉腾讯QQ垄断案＂就是其中的典型案例。在该案中,腾讯QQ作为一种互联网即时通讯软件,其相关产品市场的界定是本案的争议焦点之一,也是难点之一。学界有观点认为,由于互联网行业中用户锁定效应、零价格、双边市场的存在,传统的反垄断相关产品市场界定方法无法有效界定本案的相关产品市场。通过对该案的具体案情、特征进行分析,传统的相关产品市场界定方法仍能在本案中适用,本案中腾讯QQ这一互联网即时通讯软件的相关产品市场是＂在线交流服务市场＂。     

Variance estimation when donor imputation is used to fill in missing values

Donor imputation is frequently used in surveys. However, very few variance estimation methods that take into account donor imputation have been developed in the literature. This is particularly true for surveys with high sampling fractions using nearest donor imputation, often called nearest‐neighbour imputation. In this paper, the authors develop a variance estimator for donor imputation based on the assumption that the imputed estimator of a domain total is approximately unbiased under an imputation model; that is, a model for the variable requiring imputation. Their variance estimator is valid, irrespective of the magnitude of the sampling fractions and the complexity of the donor imputation method, provided that the imputation model mean and variance are accurately estimated. They evaluate its performance in a simulation study and show that nonparametric estimation of the model mean and variance via smoothing splines brings robustness with respect to imputation model misspecifications. They also apply their variance estimator to real survey data when nearest‐neighbour imputation has been used to fill in the missing values. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 37: 400–416; 2009 © 2009 Statistical Society of Canada     

Methodology for the Calculation of Annualized Incremental Risks in Systems of Dams

In the past few years, the field of dam safety has approached risk informed methodologies throughout the world and several methodologies and programs are appearing to aid in the systematization of the calculations. The most common way of implementing these calculations is through the use of event trees, computing event probabilities, and incremental consequences. This methodology is flexible enough for several situations, but its generalization to the case of systems of several dams is complex and its implementation in a completely general calculation methodology presents some problems. Retaining the event tree framework, a new methodology is proposed to calculate incremental risks. The main advantage of this proposed methodology is the ease with which it can be applied to systems of several dams: with a single risk model that describes the complete system and with a single calculation the incremental risks of the system can be obtained, being able to allocate the risk of each dam and of each failure mode. The article shows how both methodologies are equivalent and also applies them to a case study.     

Commercial sex between men: A prospective diary‐based study

This paper describes the results of a self‐reporting dairy completed by 186 male sex workers (MSWs) over a 2‐week period in Brisbane, Sydney, and Melbourne, Australia. The diary was completed following each commercial sex encounter by the MSW. The results reveal that MSWs reported 2088 commercial sex encounters during the study period, with an average of 11.2 encounters per MSW. The majority of sex encounters took place in either the client's or the MSW's residence, with significant variations by city. The average sexual encounter lasted 70 minutes, and comprised two sexual acts, masturbation and oral sex. Condom use was reported in 67.4% of all the encounters. Using the AIDS Council safe‐sex classification system, the majority of the commercial sex encounters fell in the “safer sex” category; however, there were significant differences by source of clients and place of the encounter. Use of drugs and alcohol reveal interesting patterns: Clients were more likely to use alcohol, while MSWs had significant differences of usage of the different drugs. This study demonstrates that the majority of MSWs are offering and practicing safe sex behaviours, however, MSWs working in the street setting are still likely to be practising unsafe sex. Male sex work is becoming an organised business and this provides opportunities to implement further public health interventions.     

On the almost unbiased generalized liu estimator and unbiased estimation of the bias and mse

In this paper, we derive the almost unbiased generalized Liu estimator and examine an exact unbiased estimator of the bias and mean squared error of the feasible generalized Liu estimator . We compare the almost unbiased generalized Liu estimator (AUGLE) with the generalized Liu estimator (GLE) and with the ordinary least squares estimator (OLSE).     

书评中“I”和“we”用法的对比研究

本文以30篇书评为语料,结合定性和定量的方法对比书评中＂I＂和＂we＂体现的作者权力。研究结果表明,书评中的＂I＂多用于发表评价性言论,而＂we＂则多用于对书的客观性介绍,＂I＂比＂we＂体现的作者权力更大。