边境线上的认同与国家在场——以西双版纳勐腊县的田野调查为例

本文通过对中国南疆西双版纳勐腊县的田野调查,试图了解当下云南边境地区国家在场面临的困境以及这一困境对其自身民族认同与国家认同的影响.通过分析困境产生的历史与现实原因,从而推演出这一地区少数民族基于自身血缘和地缘关系所形成的认同场域,与国家实体边界所界定的在边境空间应具有的认同场域难以吻合,并且边境线之于边民的政治性意义与边民的日常生活实践亦难以统合.边境线在强调维系国家认同的同时,割裂了民族认同的维系,从而出现非法跨境以及国家的暂时退场.     

Bridging semantic and social network analyses: the case of the hashtag #precisamosfalarsobreaborto (we need to talk about abortion) on Twitter

This paper presents an innovative method design that combines semantic with social network analysis in order to measure opinion leadership in social networking sites in a more accurate way. We used this method to assess the efficacy of the TPM magazine in disseminating its pro-decriminalization of abortion frames (contained in the cover story of its 148th issue) that were associated with the hashtag #precisamosfalarsobreaborto (a trending topic in November 2014). The data were collected from Twitter through the data-mining application NodeXL (N?=?1010). A content analysis of a random sample was carried out (N?=?376; margin of error?=?4%; confidence interval?=?95%; Krippendorff’s alpha?=?0.661). Using the software Gephi, we plotted the data on a socio-semantic graph, which indicates that (a) the border of the social network does not represent a semantic gap with the center and (b) despite the network being extremely like-minded, one of its hubs appears to be what we conceptualize as a hotspot of contestation. We discuss how future research may replicate and refine our methodology to handle population datasets and big data as well.     

The relationship of salivary testosterone and male sexual dysfunction in opioid-associated androgen deficiency (OPIAD)

Background: Opioids are an effective treatment for chronic non-malignant pain (CNP). Long-term use risks and side effects such as opioid-induced androgen deficiency (OPIAD) exist. This could be measured by saliva testosterone (Sal-T).

Objectives: To evaluate OPIAD in long-term opioid use in CNP patients.

Methods: A cross-sectional study included CNP male outpatients under opioid treatment. Total-Testosterone (Total-T), Free-Testosterone (Free-T), Bio-Testosterone (Bio-T) and Sal-T were measured. Correlations were calculated by Spearman’s rho (SPSS 20).

Results: From 2012 to 2014, 134 from 249 (54%) consecutive male outpatients reported erectile dysfunction (ED), 37% of them related to opioids and 19% evidenced OPIAD. A total of 120 subjects (94 cases and 26 matched-controls) were included. A significantly lower luteinizing hormone, Total-T and Free-T were found, as well as, a significant correlation between Sal-T and Total-T (r?=?0.234, p?=?0.039), Bio-T (r?=?0.241, p?=?0.039), IIEF (r?=?0.363, p?=?0.003) and HAD-anxiety (r =??0.414, p?=?0.012) in OPIAD patients. Sal-T levels were significantly lower in patients with severe–moderate ED versus mild ED (p?=?0.045) and in patients with severe ED versus moderate–mild ED (p?=?0.036).

Conclusions: These data demonstrate the high prevalence of ED in long-term use of opioids, part of this is associated to OPIAD, which can be tested by Sal-T as a non-invasive approach.     

Strong laws for associated random variables

We study the almost sure convergence and rates of weighted sums of associated random variables under the classical assumption of existence of Laplace transforms. This assumption implies the existence of every moment, so we address the same problem assuming a suitable decrease rate on tail joint probabilities which only implies the existence of finitely many moments, proving the analogous characterizations of convergence and rates. Still relaxing further the assumptions on moment existence, we also prove a Marcinkiewicz–Zygmund for associated variables without means, complementing existing results for this dependence structure.     

Wavelet-based Bayesian nonlinear regression for the air pollution effects on clinic visits in small areas of Taiwan

We revisit the complete clinic visit records and environmental monitoring data at 50 townships and city districts of Taiwan. Extending the earlier analyses, here we consider a Bayesian analysis using Daubechies wavelet. Appropriate model selection is also considered using Bayesian model averaging. Temperature, dew point, and NO₂ and CO of the current day and the previous day are identified as the pollutants in different areas of the island following some spatial pattern.     

Developing a restricted two-parameter Liu-type estimator: A comparison of restricted estimators in the binary logistic regression model

In the context of estimating regression coefficients of an ill-conditioned binary logistic regression model, we develop a new biased estimator having two parameters for estimating the regression vector parameter β when it is subjected to lie in the linear subspace restriction Hβ = h. The matrix mean squared error and mean squared error (MSE) functions of these newly defined estimators are derived. Moreover, a method to choose the two parameters is proposed. Then, the performance of the proposed estimator is compared to that of the restricted maximum likelihood estimator and some other existing estimators in the sense of MSE via a Monte Carlo simulation study. According to the simulation results, the performance of the estimators depends on the sample size, number of explanatory variables, and degree of correlation. The superiority region of our proposed estimator is identified based on the biasing parameters, numerically. It is concluded that the new estimator is superior to the others in most of the situations considered and it is recommended to the researchers.     

Autoregressive Moving Average Infinite Hidden Markov-Switching Models

Markov-switching models are usually specified under the assumption that all the parameters change when a regime switch occurs. Relaxing this hypothesis and being able to detect which parameters evolve over time is relevant for interpreting the changes in the dynamics of the series, for specifying models parsimoniously, and may be helpful in forecasting. We propose the class of sticky infinite hidden Markov-switching autoregressive moving average models, in which we disentangle the break dynamics of the mean and the variance parameters. In this class, the number of regimes is possibly infinite and is determined when estimating the model, thus avoiding the need to set this number by a model choice criterion. We develop a new Markov chain Monte Carlo estimation method that solves the path dependence issue due to the moving average component. Empirical results on macroeconomic series illustrate that the proposed class of models dominates the model with fixed parameters in terms of point and density forecasts.     

基于“21世纪海上丝绸之路”文献的文本挖掘研究

对以"21世纪海上丝绸之路"为主题的3 399篇科技文献,采用关联分析、TF-IDF词频分析、LDA模型等文本挖掘手段及其可视化方法,分别针对科技文献的关键词、摘要、研究机构、发表时间、内容等信息进行文本建模与分析,从而形成全新视角下文本数据的定量研究。研究发现:对该问题的研究具有显著的区域性特征和地理溢出效应;当前研究侧重宏观战略角度,缺乏技术层面的量化研究;时间序列分析表明宏观战略与新闻类文献数量趋缓,为后续各子命题的定量分析提供了一定的空间。