Total Economic Consequences of an Influenza Outbreak in the United States

Pandemic influenza represents a serious threat not only to the population of the United States, but also to its economy. In this study, we analyze the total economic consequences of potential influenza outbreaks in the United States for four cases based on the distinctions between disease severity and the presence/absence of vaccinations. The analysis is based on data and parameters on influenza obtained from the Centers for Disease Control and the general literature. A state‐of‐the‐art economic impact modeling approach, computable general equilibrium, is applied to analyze a wide range of potential impacts stemming from the outbreaks. This study examines the economic impacts from changes in medical expenditures and workforce participation, and also takes into consideration different types of avoidance behavior and resilience actions not previously fully studied. Our results indicate that, in the absence of avoidance and resilience effects, a pandemic influenza outbreak could result in a loss in U.S. GDP of $25.4 billion, but that vaccination could reduce the losses to $19.9 billion. When behavioral and resilience factors are taken into account, a pandemic influenza outbreak could result in GDP losses of $45.3 billion without vaccination and $34.4 billion with vaccination. These results indicate the importance of including a broader set of causal factors to achieve more accurate estimates of the total economic impacts of not just pandemic influenza but biothreats in general. The results also highlight a number of actionable items that government policymakers and public health officials can use to help reduce potential economic losses from the outbreaks.     

The Role of Behavioral Responses in the Total Economic Consequences of Terrorist Attacks on U.S. Air Travel Targets

U.S. airports and airliners are prime terrorist targets. Not only do the facilities and equipment represent high‐value assets, but the fear and dread that is spread by such attacks can have tremendous effects on the U.S. economy. This article presents the methodology, data, and estimates of the macroeconomic impacts stemming from behavioral responses to a simulated terrorist attack on a U.S. airport and on a domestic airliner. The analysis is based on risk‐perception surveys of these two scenarios. The responses relate to reduced demand for airline travel, shifts to other modes, spending on nontravel items, and savings of potential travel expenditures by U.S. resident passengers considering flying domestic routes. We translate these responses to individual spending categories and feed these direct impact results into a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the U.S. economy to ascertain the indirect and total impacts on both the airline industry and the economy as a whole. Overall, the estimated impacts on GDP of both types of attacks exceed $10B. We find that the behavioral economic impacts are almost an order of magnitude higher than the ordinary business interruption impacts for the airliner attack and nearly two orders of magnitude higher for the airport attack. The results are robust to sensitivity tests on the travel behavior of U.S. residents in response to terrorism.     

A Multilevel Analysis of Gender Differences in Psychological Distress Over Time

Females have higher rates of depression than males, a disparity that emerges in adolescence and persists into adulthood. This study uses hierarchical linear modeling to assess the effects of school context on gender differences in depressive symptoms among adolescents based on two waves of data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (N=9,709 teens, 127 schools). Analysis indicates significant school‐level variation in both overall symptom levels and the average gender gap in depression net of prior symptoms and individual‐level covariates. Aggregate levels of depressive symptomatology were positively associated with contextual‐level socioeconomic status (SES) disadvantage. A cross‐level contingency emerged for the relationship between gender and depressive symptoms with school SES and aggregate perceived community safety such that the gender “gap” was most apparent in contexts characterized by low SES disadvantage and high levels of perceived safety. These results highlight the importance of context to understanding the development of mental health disparities.     

Seducing Leadership: Stories of Leadership Development

This article argues that leadership development is a process of seduction. Drawing on some stories of leadership development from my experience as participant, observer and teacher I show the ways in which certain sorts of highly valued leadership teaching contain seductive elements, including sweeping audiences off their feet and, in some contexts, forestalling critique about the content that is offered. The article also considers the extent to which seduction is a gendered performance. I conclude that, while gender and power are defining elements and constraints in how seductive pedagogical relations are constructed, there are opportunities for experimentation and display that potentially subvert gendered stereotypes. Seeing the seduction in leadership can help us understand leadership and leadership teaching better, and can open the way to doing it differently — to experimentation and innovation.     

When caregiving ends: the course of depressive symptoms after bereavement

This study describes depressive symptoms among caregivers following bereavement and connects these trajectories to earlier features of caregiving using life course and stress process theory. Data are from a six-wave longitudinal survey (five years) of spouses and adult children caring for someone with Alzheimer's Disease. The analytic subsample (N = 291) is defined by death of the care-recipient after the baseline interview. A latent class mixture model is used to identify distinctive clusters of depressive symptoms over time. Of the four trajectories identified, three represent stable symptom levels over time, with two-thirds being repeatedly symptomatic (medium symptom levels), compared to two smaller groups of repeatedly asymptomatic (effectively absent of symptoms) and repeatedly distressed (severe symptoms). In contrast, about one in five caregivers experiences improved emotional well-being over time, the temporarily distressed, who progress from severe to moderate symptom levels. Caregivers with few symptoms before bereavement tend to maintain these states afterwards, but emotionally distressed caregivers tend to become more distressed. Role overload before bereavement substantially increases the odds of following an unfavorable trajectory afterwards, whereas self-esteem and socioemotional support play protective roles. These results demonstrate that caregivers are not uniform in their emotional responses to bereavement, but follow several distinct trajectories. These trajectories are linked to their previous experiences as caregivers, in particular exposure to stressors and access to resources. These findings suggest that intervention during caregiving may facilitate adaptation following death of a loved one.     

Similarities and Dissimilarities in Spouses’ Narratives of Miscarriage: A Dyadic Analysis of Communicated Narrative Sense-Making and Well-Being

Drawing upon communicated narrative sense-making (CNSM) theory, we explored how husbands and wives narratively make sense of their miscarriage and links to well-being. Specifically, we analyzed how the narrative theme, sequence, and similarity related to spouses’ perceived stress and relational satisfaction. Heterosexual married couples (n = 185; N = 370) who had experienced a miscarriage responded to online questionnaires in which they told the story of their pregnancy loss and completed measures of well-being. Seven miscarriage story themes emerged – hope lost, factual, time heals, helpful support, unhelpful support, cautiously optimistic, and guilt/shame. Findings demonstrated that husbands’ themes accounted for differences in their relational satisfaction, whereas wives’ themes accounted for differences in their perceived stress. Analyses on narrative similarity revealed couples with different themes reported higher relational satisfaction than those with similar themes. Further, those couples with the same narrative sequences (i.e., contaminated, redemptive, or ambivalent) reported less perceived stress than those with different narrative sequences. These findings suggest that storying miscarriage helps both husbands and wives process loss in unique ways.     

Employee absence,age and tenure: A study of nonlinear effects and trivariate models

Multiple regression techniques were used to explore the nature of the relationships between age, tenure and absence in 2417 British local government workers drawn from three work groups. The data were collected from organizational records and included measures of both non-certified absence and medically certified absence. Linear and curvilinear associations among age, tenure and absence were examined. The possible moderating or mediating role of tenure in the relationship between age and absence was subsequently analysed. The data revealed linear relationships between age and absence that were negative for non-certified absence and positive for certified absence. In contrast, curvilinear relationships were found between tenure and absence that were U-shaped for noncertified absence and inverse U-shaped for certified absence. Tenure was found to moderate but not to mediate the relationship between age and absence. The implications of the results are discussed in the context of the changing age and career paths of the workforce, and of methodological issues in absence research.     

Quantifying the Hurricane Catastrophe Risk to Offshore Wind Power

The U.S. Department of Energy has estimated that over 50 GW of offshore wind power will be required for the United States to generate 20% of its electricity from wind. Developers are actively planning offshore wind farms along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts and several leases have been signed for offshore sites. These planned projects are in areas that are sometimes struck by hurricanes. We present a method to estimate the catastrophe risk to offshore wind power using simulated hurricanes. Using this method, we estimate the fraction of offshore wind power simultaneously offline and the cumulative damage in a region. In Texas, the most vulnerable region we studied, 10% of offshore wind power could be offline simultaneously because of hurricane damage with a 100‐year return period and 6% could be destroyed in any 10‐year period. We also estimate the risks to single wind farms in four representative locations; we find the risks are significant but lower than those estimated in previously published results. Much of the hurricane risk to offshore wind turbines can be mitigated by designing turbines for higher maximum wind speeds, ensuring that turbine nacelles can turn quickly to track the wind direction even when grid power is lost, and building in areas with lower risk.     

Using dialogue to build organization–public relationships,engage publics,and positively affect organizational outcomes

The study and practice of public relations continues to explore the many benefits accrued when organizations adopt a relational approach to public relations management. One area that is relatively unexplored in the relationship management literature is the role of dialogue in organization–public relationships. Historically, scholars have focused dialogic research on either interaction – where an organization and a public exchange information – or a debate – where organizations and public engage in a process of statement counterstatement. The current investigation explores the notion of dialogue and examines the ways in which relationship attitudes and dialogue may positively affect key public member evaluations and behavioral intent. The results suggest that both relationship attitudes and dialogue positively affect respondent evaluations of and intended behaviors toward an organization. The implications of the findings are presented and suggestions for managing organization–public relationships are considered.