Bayesian Capture-Recapture Analysis: An Application in Modeling Semelparity of a Neotropical Didelphid Marsupial

We develop a series of Bayesian statistical models for estimating survival of a neotropic didelphid marsupial, the Brazilian gracile mouse opossum (Gracilinanus microtarsus). These models are based on the Cormack–Jolly–Seber model (Cormack, 1964 Cormack , R. M. ( 1964 ). Estimates of survival from the sighting of marked animals . Biometrika 51 : 429 – 438 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]; Jolly 1965 Jolly , G. M. ( 1965 ). Explicit estimates from capture-recapture data with both death and immigration stochastic model . Biometrika 52 : 225 – 247 .[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]; Seber 1965 Seber , G. A. F. ( 1965 ). A note on the multiple recapture census . Biometrika 52 : 249 – 259 .[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) with both survival and recapture rates expressed as a function of covariates using a logit link. The proposed models allow taking into account heterogeneity in capture probability caused by the existence of different groups of individuals in the population. The models were applied to two cohorts (Cohort, 2000, 2001) with the first one including 14 and the second one 15 sampling occasions. The best models for each of the cohorts indicate that G. microtarsus is best described as partially semelparous, a condition in which mortality after the first mating is high but graded over time, with a fraction of males surviving for a second breeding season (Boonstra, 2005 Boonstra , R. ( 2005 ). Equipped for life: the adaptive role of the stress axis in male mammals . Journal of Mammalogy 86 : 236 – 247 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]).