Public Policy and the Displacement Effects of Casinos: A Case Study of Riverboat Gambling in Missouri

A critical issue in assessing the economic impact of casinos is whether gambling activity displaces consumer expenditure from conventional retail establishments. We test this hypothesis using industry-level, time series data for eleven counties in Missouri, a state that recently introduced riverboats. Our results are generally inconsistent with the displacement hypothesis. However, we do find evidence of substitution between gambling and other businesses in the entertainment and amusement sector. This conclusion lends credence to the view that gaming serves as a substitute for other forms of entertainment. Our results also imply that the search for displacement should probably be focused on activities that constitute the closest consumer substitutes. We conclude with a discussion of the policy implications for state regulation of this new source of revenue.     

Organizational Learning: A Radical Perspective

The teamworking and knowledge management fields are increasingly converging. Teamworking is turned to with a growing disillusion with knowledge management approaches that are seen as excessively 'hard', 'objectified', or 'information technology dominated'. This paper is a critical review, the purpose of which is to survey the literature across several fields that provide insights into teamworking aspects of knowledge management, and the reverse. This approach is chosen as disciplines tend to sustain presumptions and preoccupations that may be contradicted by other fields, as is shown. In particular, the review challenges what is referred to as the 'organizational behaviour textbook theory of teamworking' and refers to research and theory from several disciplines that qualify what is still an influential orthodoxy. The paper attempts to draw together some principles from current themes such as collective mind, modularity, cross-functional teams and communities of practice.     

Nowcasting GDP in Real Time: A Density Combination Approach

In this article, we use U.S. real-time data to produce combined density nowcasts of quarterly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, using a system of three commonly used model classes. We update the density nowcast for every new data release throughout the quarter, and highlight the importance of new information for nowcasting. Our results show that the logarithmic score of the predictive densities for U.S. GDP growth increase almost monotonically, as new information arrives during the quarter. While the ranking of the model classes changes during the quarter, the combined density nowcasts always perform well relative to the model classes in terms of both logarithmic scores and calibration tests. The density combination approach is superior to a simple model selection strategy and also performs better in terms of point forecast evaluation than standard point forecast combinations.     

Comprehensive Education for the Unemployed — Evaluating the Effects on Unemployment of the Adult Education Initiative in Sweden

Abstract. This paper evaluates the effects on unemployment in Sweden of the Adult Education Initiative (AEI) which during its run from 1997 to 2002 offered adult education to the unemployed at compulsory or upper secondary level. The AEI is compared with the vocational part of Labor Market Training (LMT) using unemployment incidence and unemployment duration as outcome variables, both measured immediately after completion of the programs. For unemployment incidence, selection on unobservables is taken into account by using a bivariate probit model. The analysis of unemployment duration considers both selection bias and censored observations. The results indicate lower incidence following participation in the AEI, but also — significant at the 10 per cent level — longer duration.     

Comparative assessment of gridded population data sets for complex topography: a study of Southwest China

Population and Environment - Population estimates for high-resolution spatial grid cells data can reflect detailed spatial distribution of population, which are valuable for epidemiological...     

Asymptotic Normality of the QMLE Estimator of ARCH in the Nonstationary Case

We establish consistency and asymptotic normality of the quasi‐maximum likelihood estimator in the linear ARCH model. Contrary to the existing literature, we allow the parameters to be in the region where no stationary version of the process exists. This implies that the estimator is always asymptotically normal.     

The Development of an Internet-Based Treatment for Problem Gamblers and Concerned Significant Others: A Pilot Randomized Controlled Trial

Problem gambling creates significant harm for the gambler and for concerned significant others (CSOs). While several studies have investigated the effects of individual cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) for problem gambling, less is known about the effects of involving CSOs in treatment. Behavioral couples therapy (BCT) has shown promising results when working with substance use disorders by involving both the user and a CSO. This pilot study investigated BCT for problem gambling, as well as the feasibility of performing a larger scale randomized controlled trial. 36 participants, 18 gamblers and 18 CSOs, were randomized to either BCT or individual CBT for the gambler. Both interventions were Internet-delivered self-help interventions with therapist support. Both groups of gamblers improved on all outcome measures, but there were no differences between the groups. The CSOs in the BCT group lowered their scores on anxiety and depression more than the CSOs of those randomized to the individual CBT group did. The implications of the results and the feasibility of the trial are discussed.     

Effect of Sexual Arousal on Cortical Coupling During Performance of the Tower of Hanoi Task in Young Men

Sexual arousal affects cognitive processing, which depends on the coordinated functioning among cortical areas. The aim of this research was to determine whether previous observation of videos with sexual content affects the degree of cortical electroencephalographic (EEG) coupling during performance of an executive task. Cortical EEG correlations were calculated in three groups of heterosexual men under three conditions: at rest; during observation of a video with neutral, aggressive, or erotic content; and while performing the Tower of Hanoi task (TOH). Based on self-reports, it was shown that the erotic video induced general and sexual arousal, while the aggressive video affected valence and general arousal. Task performance was similar in all three groups. During performance of TOH, only the erotic group showed a decreased correlation between prefrontal areas with an increased correlation between parietal and prefrontotemporal areas, specifically in the slow bands. It is likely that these changes in the degree of cortical coupling could be associated with the cognitive strategies or functional adaptations that participants require to adequately solve the task during a state of sexual arousal. These data could contribute to improving our understanding of the central nervous mechanisms that underlie the effect of sexual arousal on the cognitive processes involved in tasks like TOH.     

Foster children's experiences and expectations concerning the child‐welfare officer role—Prerequisites and obstacles for close and trustful relationships

The question of whether the Swedish social services are fulfilling their obligation to monitor and support children in foster care is attracting increasing attention. The importance of closeness and trust between children and their child‐welfare officers has been highlighted in particular. The aim of this article is to study foster children's experiences and expectations concerning the role of the child‐welfare officer, and how these constitute prerequisites for, and possible obstacles to the officers developing close and trustful relationships with the children under prevailing institutional conditions. Data from our evaluation of a national pilot project with supervision representatives provide the empirical basis. Our theoretical point of departure is that the relationship between the child and the child‐welfare officer is affected by the officer's role—a role that is negotiated under the prevailing institutional conditions and in interaction with the children's experiences of and expectations about that role. The results show that most children emphasize that the relationship with their officer is negatively affected by a lack of time, availability, and trust. It is also weakened by the children's general expectation that child‐welfare officers only act in their official role, a role that is associated with a formal and distanced relationship.     

Prediction in multilevel generalized linear models

Summary.  We discuss prediction of random effects and of expected responses in multilevel generalized linear models. Prediction of random effects is useful for instance in small area estimation and disease mapping, effectiveness studies and model diagnostics. Prediction of expected responses is useful for planning, model interpretation and diagnostics. For prediction of random effects, we concentrate on empirical Bayes prediction and discuss three different kinds of standard errors; the posterior standard deviation and the marginal prediction error standard deviation (comparative standard errors) and the marginal sampling standard deviation (diagnostic standard error). Analytical expressions are available only for linear models and are provided in an appendix . For other multilevel generalized linear models we present approximations and suggest using parametric bootstrapping to obtain standard errors. We also discuss prediction of expectations of responses or probabilities for a new unit in a hypothetical cluster, or in a new (randomly sampled) cluster or in an existing cluster. The methods are implemented in gllamm and illustrated by applying them to survey data on reading proficiency of children nested in schools. Simulations are used to assess the performance of various predictions and associated standard errors for logistic random-intercept models under a range of conditions.