Breakdown of teenage placements in Danish out‐of‐home care

This study deals with the problem of breakdown in out‐of‐home placements for Danish teenagers. How often are these placements prematurely terminated against the requests and intentions of the child welfare authorities? Which factors seem to increase and decrease placement breakdown? The sample consists of 225 youths and 367 placements during the years 2004–2008. Among the 225 youths, 44% experienced a breakdown, and 33% of the 367 placements ended with a breakdown. A large proportion of the placement breakdowns (20%) occurred before 4 months, and within the first year, 62% of the placement breakdowns had taken place. Replacements took place in 61% of all placement breakdowns. The analysis showed that type of placement and number of youth at the same placement had significant association to placement breakdown, but variables based on the social worker's clinical assessment showed no association to breakdown. However, while the logistic regression model was significant, it explained only 6% of the variance. Earlier studies have indicated that breakdown is a substantial problem of child welfare in several other western countries, Denmark is no exception. These corresponding breakdown rates point out that no child welfare system yet have found a method to reduce breakdown substantially.     

Are transformational and laissez-faire leadership related to state anxiety among subordinates? A two-wave prospective study of forward and reverse associations

ABSTRACT

The aim of this study was to determine the direction of associations between perceived leadership styles of an immediate leader and state anxiety among subordinates using time-lagged data from a large and heterogeneous probability sample of Norwegian employees. It was hypothesised that high levels of transformational leadership would be associated with a decrease, whereas high levels of laissez-faire leadership would be associated with an increase, in subsequent levels of anxiety. Reciprocal associations were also expected in that higher levels of anxiety were hypothesised to be related to subsequent increase in reports of laissez-faire, and decrease in reported exposure to transformational leadership. The sample comprised 1149 Norwegian employees. The design was a two-wave full panel study with a six-month time interval between the baseline and follow-up assessments. Contrary to hypotheses, neither transformational nor laissez-faire leadership were significantly related to subsequent levels of state anxiety. In support of hypotheses, baseline low levels of state anxiety were associated with reporting the immediate leader as less transformational and more laissez-faire six months later. In conclusion, the findings challenge theoretical models that explain leadership as a one-way superior–subordinate influence process.     

Bootstrap Confidence Intervals for Large-scale Multivariate Monotonic Regression Problems

Recently, the methods used to estimate monotonic regression (MR) models have been substantially improved, and some algorithms can now produce high-accuracy monotonic fits to multivariate datasets containing over a million observations. Nevertheless, the computational burden can be prohibitively large for resampling techniques in which numerous datasets are processed independently of each other. Here, we present efficient algorithms for estimation of confidence limits in large-scale settings that take into account the similarity of the bootstrap or jackknifed datasets to which MR models are fitted. In addition, we introduce modifications that substantially improve the accuracy of MR solutions for binary response variables. The performance of our algorithms is illustrated using data on death in coronary heart disease for a large population. This example also illustrates that MR can be a valuable complement to logistic regression.     

Asymptotic Inference for Waiting Times and Patiences in Queues with Abandonment

Motivated by applications in call center management, we propose a framework based on empirical process techniques for inference about waiting time and patience distributions in multiserver queues with abandonment. The framework rigorises heuristics based on survival analysis of independent and identically distributed observations by allowing correlated waiting times. Assuming a regenerative structure of offered waiting times, we establish asymptotic properties of estimators of limiting distribution functions and derived functionals. We discuss construction of bootstrap confidence intervals and statistical tests, including a simple bootstrap two-sample test for comparing patience distributions. A small simulation study and a real data example are presented.     

Quantification of symmetry for functional data with application to equine lameness classification

This paper presents a study on symmetry of repeated bi-phased data signals, in particular, on quantification of the deviation between the two parts of the signal. Three symmetry scores are defined using functional data techniques such as smoothing and registration. One score is related to the L ₂-distance between the two parts of the signal, whereas the other two are constructed to specifically measure differences in amplitude and phase. Moreover, symmetry scores based on functional principal component analysis (PCA) are examined. The scores are applied to acceleration signals from a study on equine gait. The scores turn out to be highly associated with lameness, and their applicability for lameness quantification and detection is investigated. Four classification approaches turn out to give similar results. The scores describing amplitude and phase variation turn out to outperform the PCA scores when it comes to the classification of lameness.     

Are Irrational Beliefs and Depressive Mood More Common Among Problem Gamblers than Non-Gamblers? A Survey Study of Swedish Problem Gamblers and Controls

This study tests the hypothesis that problem gamblers are more prone to have irrational beliefs and depressed mood than non-gamblers. Irrational beliefs refer to fallacious opinions about probabilities. Gamblers like to believe that chance games (i.e., roulette and lottery) can be controlled and that the outcome of such games is dependent on the patterns of previous outcomes. The empirical material consists of responses to a survey that 302 individuals have answered. Half of the respondents were deemed to be problem gamblers. The results showed that compared to the controls, the problem gamblers were more inclined to show illusion of control due to their skill and reported more depressive mood. The results are discussed in terms of difficulties to know the “hen and the egg” regarding depressive mood, and in terms of intermittent reinforcement to continue gambling.     

Does migration pay? Earnings effects of geographic mobility following job displacement

It has been well established that involuntary job displacement has strong negative effects on earnings. Utilising a large dataset, containing all workers in Sweden who were involuntarily displaced from work through closures or substantial cutbacks occurring in 1987 or 1988, this paper studies whether migration helps mitigate these negative effects. Substantial gender differences in earnings effects of internal migration are found: men generally have positive effects, while the consequences for women are negative.     

SECESSIONS AND POLITICAL EXTREMISM: WHY REGIONAL REFERENDA DO NOT SOLVE THE PROBLEM

This paper shows that an uninformed player can increase his bargaining power by committing to receive information from an expert more skeptical to cooperation. This general idea is applied to a model in which a regional political leader (the expert) influences voting in a referendum on independence by strategically disseminating information about the consequences of separation. I show that this motivates a moderate electorate to appoint a more extreme leader, to receive biased information that increases their bargaining power over the gains of staying unified. However, a trade‐off between bargaining power and precision of information causes inefficient outcomes in equilibrium. (JEL: C73, D72, D82, H77)