FINANCIAL CRISES,OUTPUT LOSSES,AND THE ROLE OF STRUCTURAL REFORMS

Financial crises take a heavy toll on output growth. We assess the role of structural reforms in reducing the output losses resulting from financial crises across advanced economies, emerging and developing economies, and low‐income developing economies. We also revisit the role of macroeconomic policies in this context. The impact of crises on output growth differs between types of crises and economies, thus warranting sample splits along these lines. Some but not all reforms and policies help to reduce the output losses of crises in the medium term, highlighting the need not to overgeneralize the effectiveness of reforms and policies. Further research is warranted to further explore the heterogeneity in the impact of financial crises on output growth and to better understand when and how specific structural reforms and macroeconomic policies can mitigate the output costs of financial crises. (JEL E32, E44, E63, G28, O47)     

On testing for independence between the innovations of several time series

Test statistics for checking the independence between the innovations of several time series are developed. The time series models considered allow for general specifications for the conditional mean and variance functions that could depend on common explanatory variables. In testing for independence between more than two time series, checking pairwise independence does not lead to consistent procedures. Thus a finite family of empirical processes relying on multivariate lagged residuals are constructed, and we derive their asymptotic distributions. In order to obtain simple asymptotic covariance structures, Möbius transformations of the empirical processes are studied, and simplifications occur. Under the null hypothesis of independence, we show that these transformed processes are asymptotically Gaussian, independent, and with tractable covariance functions not depending on the estimated parameters. Various procedures are discussed, including Cramér–von Mises test statistics and tests based on non‐parametric measures. The ranks of the residuals are considered in the new methods, giving test statistics which are asymptotically margin‐free. Generalized cross‐correlations are introduced, extending the concept of cross‐correlation to an arbitrary number of time series; portmanteau procedures based on them are discussed. In order to detect the dependence visually, graphical devices are proposed. Simulations are conducted to explore the finite sample properties of the methodology, which is found to be powerful against various types of alternatives when the independence is tested between two and three time series. An application is considered, using the daily log‐returns of Apple, Intel and Hewlett‐Packard traded on the Nasdaq financial market. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 40: 447–479; 2012 © 2012 Statistical Society of Canada     

On the History of the Correction for Grouping, 1873–1922

The correction for grouping is a sum of two terms, the first depending on the length of the grouping interval, the second being a periodic function of the position. Thiele (1873) studied the second term, but missed the first. Sheppard (1898) studied the first term, but missed the second. Bruns (1906) derived the first term as the aperiodic term of a Fourier series and the second as the sum of the periodic terms. He found the correction to the coefficients of the Gram–Charlier series and proved that the second term is negligible for a grouped normal distribution with at least eight groups. Independently, Fisher (1922) used the same method to derive the correction to the moments. For the normal distribution with a grouping interval less than the standard deviation Fisher proved that the second term is negligible compared with the first and with the standard error of the first four moments. Moreover, he proved that the estimates of the mean and the standard deviation obtained by the method of moments for a grouped sample with Sheppard's corrections have nearly the same variances as the maximum likelihood estimates, thus providing a new and compelling reason for using Sheppard's corrections.     

Media competition and information disclosure

This paper analyzes an election game where self-interested politicians can exploit the lack of information that citizens have about candidates’ preferred policies in order to pursue their own agendas. In such a setup, we analyze the incentives of newspapers to acquire costly information and that of politicians to make informative speeches, as well as how competition among the media affects such incentives. We show that the higher the number of potential readers and/or the lower the cost of investigating, the more the candidates tend to reveal their motives. We also show that the readers’ purchasing habits play a crucial role in the model. More specifically, we show that if readers always buy a newspaper, media competition favors information disclosure; whereas if they are opportunistic and just buy a newspaper in case news are uncovered, competition is not so desirable. An erratum to this article can be found at     

Preliminary phi-divergence test estimators for linear restrictions in a logistic regression model

The problem of estimation of the parameters in a logistic regression model is considered under multicollinearity situation when it is suspected that the parameter of the logistic regression model may be restricted to a subspace. We study the properties of the preliminary test based on the minimum ϕ -divergence estimator as well as in the ϕ -divergence test statistic. The minimum ϕ -divergence estimator is a natural extension of the maximum likelihood estimator and the ϕ -divergence test statistics is a family of the test statistics for testing the hypothesis that the regression coefficients may be restricted to a subspace.     

Unthinking the European Higher Education Area – differentiated integration and Bologna's different configurations

Differentiated integration was conceived of as a political methodology and as a technology to achieve a European “union” in the field of knowledge policies. However, the non-achievement with regard to the political goals of the European Higher Education Area has highlighted the limitations of this approach to promote furthering the EHEA. In this paper, unthinking is both a research strategy aiming to question those limits and a pedagogical tactic to question the assumptions about the futures. As a research strategy, articulations between unity and diversity are examined. Based on the analysis of the documents endorsed by the Education Ministers in keeping the pace of the Bologna process, the paper contributes to expand knowledge on the nature of Bologna’s differences and underlines the paradoxes in dealing with those differences. As a pedagogical tactic, unthinking questions the assumptions about the future scenarios sketched for higher education. Alternative ways to further integration are discussed on the basis of the idea of integration of the “differences”, bringing to the centre education as a political concern, as higher education institutions, professors, and students/graduates are those at the core of the political management of the “differences”.     

Organizational wisdom practices and firm product innovation

Review of Managerial Science - The manner in which organizational wisdom-related variables or practices (e.g., reasoning, intuition, virtue, prudence, and aesthetics) are related to firm product...     

Variable selection in proportional hazards cure model with time-varying covariates,application to US bank failures*

From a survival analysis perspective, bank failure data are often characterized by small default rates and heavy censoring. This empirical evidence can be explained by the existence of a subpopulation of banks likely immune from bankruptcy. In this regard, we use a mixture cure model to separate the factors with an influence on the susceptibility to default from the ones affecting the survival time of susceptible banks. In this paper, we extend a semi-parametric proportional hazards cure model to time-varying covariates and we propose a variable selection technique based on its penalized likelihood. By means of a simulation study, we show how this technique performs reasonably well. Finally, we illustrate an application to commercial bank failures in the United States over the period 2006–2016.     

The effect of MRP lot sizing on actual cumulative lead times in multi-level systems

This study investigates how different lot sizing techniques influence the cumulative lead time for multi-level production-inventory systems controlled by material requirements planning (MRP). Theoretical approaches, a numerical example, as well as simulation are used to analyse and illustrate the combined effect of lot sizing at different product structure levels. It is shown that lot-sizing requirements for more than a single period, such as fixed period requirements, period under quantity, Silver Meal algorithm, as well as economic order quantity will lead to longer actual cumulative lead times than would be expected, when taking the item lead times along the critical path through the product structure into account. Consequently, MRP will underestimate the cumulative lead time and will require a longer planning horizon. We show that the extension of the cumulative lead techniques covering the time is a lot-sizing related phenomenon and cannot be accounted for by, e.g. using safety lead time. Lot-sizing techniques with multi-period coverage will only occasionally provide the 'expected' cumulative lead time. We also show that average and maximum throughput times, as well as throughput time variability increases with increasing time-period coverage of lots.     

Bringing “A Different Femininity”: Immigrant Women from Bulgaria and Local Co-workers on a Factory Floor in Turkey

Qualitative Sociology - This article draws on life-course interviews with a group of Turkish immigrant women from socialist Bulgaria and locals who shared the same factory floor for approximately...