Payoff Effects in Information Cascade Experiments

Error rates are estimated using data from "information cascade" experiments. The econometric estimation assumes a logistic error structure and error rates are compared across three experimental treatments that differ only with respect to payoff structure. In a "no payoff" treatment subjects receive a fixed payment for participating in the experiment and earnings do not vary with decisions. In "payoff" and "double payoff" treatments earnings depend on each subject's decisions. The results indicate that rewarding correct decisions reduces the amount of decision error. However, increasing the payment for a correct decision does not reduce errors over the range of payoffs considered.     

Principles of Good Practice for the Use of Monte Carlo Techniques in Human Health and Ecological Risk Assessments

We propose 14 principles of good practice to assist people in performing and reviewing probabilistic or Monte Carlo risk assessments, especially in the context of the federal and state statutes concerning chemicals in the environment. Monte Carlo risk assessments for hazardous waste sites that follow these principles will be easier to understand, will explicitly distinguish assumptions from data, and will consider and quantify effects that could otherwise lead to misinterpretation of the results. The proposed principles are neither mutually exclusive nor collectively exhaustive. We think and hope that these principles will evolve as new ideas arise and come into practice.     

学区在教育变革中的作用

美国和加拿大对于学区在教育变革中的作用研究已有近40年的历史.关于学区在教育变革中的作用研究可划分为几个具有不同特点的时期,包括创新实施时期、高效学校范式时期、学校重构时期和基于标准的变革时期.综述列举了不同研究时期最重要的一些研究,并讨论了它们的研究特点和成果.在关于成功学区的案例研究的基础上,着重分析了学区在系统改进学生学习的过程中所面临的挑战、学区改进学生学习所采取的策略以及学区影响教学和学习质量的证据.同时,总结并讨论了12条促进学生学习的学区策略,提供了5个关于学区在教育变革中的作用的研究方向.     

A digital pedagogy pivot: re-thinking higher education practice from an HRD perspective

ABSTRACT

This paper has a provocative purpose. From both HRD and academic practice perspectives, it considers the digital pedagogy pivot made necessary by the Covid-19 pandemic. Universities have traditionally resisted substantial change in learning and teaching processes. This paper addresses the challenge they face of achieving the equivalent of a ten-year digital learning strategy in mere months. From a position that HE pedagogy constitutes a site of HRD practice, the paper considers the characteristics of a meaningful, digitally enabled pedagogy in Higher Education (HE) and their alignment with established HRD theories and concepts. It considers the pedagogic opportunities arising from the ‘digital pivot’ and the HRD processes appropriate to facilitate game-changing approaches to academic practice in Higher Education. The paper advances debate about the relationship between HRD and HE academic practice and contributes proposals for HRD processes to support rapid pedagogic change. It further contributes an original categorization of the way in which HRD concepts and theories are aligned with principles of HE pedagogy and a digital pedagogy pivot model.     

A simple measure of fertility control

We describe a simple measure of fertility control: the proportion of all births from the age-specific fertility schedule that occurs among women by age 35. This measure has broad applicability because it does not require information on marital fertility rates. When both the proportion of births by age 35 and the most commonly used measure of fertility control, m, are calculated for a population over time, they are correlated very highly. Because of increasing levels of nonmarital fertility in several developed countries, measures of fertility control that are based on marital fertility are less appropriate now than in the past.     

APPROPRIABLE RENTS FROM YELLOWSTONE PARK: A CASE OF INCOMPLETE CONTRACTING

The history of Yellowstone Park is best understood in the context of the theory of the firm as developed by Armen Alchian. In the late nineteenth century, the Northern Pacific Railroad recognized the potential amenity rents from Yellowstone and captured them by vertically integrating its monopoly on transportation to the region with the supply of tourist facilities in the park. This gave the railroad de facto ownership of the park that lasted until automobiles were allowed to enter in 1915. Thereafter the tragedy of the commons ensued and rents were dissipated instead of maximized.     

Return rates in studies of life history evolution: Are biases large?

Studies of life history evolution in passerine birds often depend on examination of annual survival probability of adult birds. Most studies rely on return rates (proportion of marked individuals released in one year that are recaptured in the next year) to estimate annual survival probability. Yet, return rate includes both the probability of survival and the probability of recapturing or resighting the bird in the next time interval. We use numerical estimation to illustrate the increasing bias in return rate as an estimator of annual survival probability as recapture/resighting probability decreases. Recapture/resighting probability is normally assumed to be high and relatively invariant for recapture/resighting studies of color-banded territorial birds. We tested this assumption through examination of 11 color-banding studies of passerines. These studies showed that recapture/resighting probabilities vary strongly and cannot be generalized as high. In short, return rates generally are poor estimators of annual survival probabilities and use of return rates may strongly bias relationships explored in comparative studies or bias results of experiments to test survival costs of reproduction. Recapture/resighting probabilities should be estimated in all studies that attempt to estimate annual survival probabilities.