Estimation of long-term trends and variation in avian survival probabilities using random effects models

We obtained banding and recovery data from the Bird Banding Laboratory (operated by the Biological Resources Division of the US Geological Survey) for adults from 129 avian species that had been continuously banded for > 24 years. Data were partitioned by gender, banding period (winter versus summer), and by states/provinces. Data sets were initially screened for adequacy based on specific criteria (e.g. minimum sample sizes). Fifty-nine data sets (11 waterfowl species, the Mourning Dove and Common Grackle) met our criteria of adequacy for further analysis. We estimated annual survival probabilities using the Brownie et al. recovery model {St, ft} in program MARK. Trends in annual survival and temporal process variation were estimated using random effects models based on shrinkage estimators. Waterfowl species had relatively little variation in annual survival probabilities (mean CV = 8.7% and 10% for males and females, respectively). The limited data for other species suggested similar low temporal variation for males, but higher temporal variation for females (CV = 40%). Evidence for long-term trends varied by species, banding period and sex, with no obvious spatial patterns for either positive or negative trends in survival probabilities. An exception was Mourning Doves banded in Illinois/Missouri and Arizona/New Mexico where both males (slope = -0.0122, se = 0.0019 and females (slope = -0.0109 to -0.0128, se = 0.0018 -0.0032) exhibited declining trends in survival probabilities. We believe our approach has application for large-scale monitoring. However, meaningful banding and recovery data for species other than waterfowl is very limited in North America.     

Reports of Conferences, Institutes, and Seminars

Reports on the 2005 North Carolina Serials Conference, the twentieth anniversary conference of the North American Serials Interest Group, the 2005 Acquisitions Institute at Timberline Lodge, and a program on electronic archiving sponsored by the New England Chapter of the Association of College and Research Libraries.     

EXPLORING A FOURTH DIMENSION: SPIRITUALITY AS A RESOURCE FOR THE COUPLE THERAPIST

This article explores ways in which the therapist's own spirituality can serve as a resource in couple therapy. Spirituality is defined as subjective engagement with a fourth, transcendent dimension of human experience. This engagement enhances human life and evokes corresponding behavior. Spiritually based therapy may be influenced by three assumptions: that God or a Divine Being exists, that human-kind yearns innately for connection with this Being, and that this Being is interested in humans and acts upon and within their relationships to promote beneficial change. In therapy these assumptions affect how the therapist listens and responds throughout sessions. The authors incorporate a case example illustrating the application of this fourth dimension in couple therapy.     

Maximum-likelihood estimates and likelihood-ratio criteria for multivariate elliptically contoured distributions

For a class of multivariate elliptically contoured distributions the maximum-likelihood estimators of the mean vector and covariance matrix are found under certain conditions. Likelihood-ratio criteria are obtained for a class of null hypotheses. These have the same form as in the normal case.     

Court-ordered foster family care reform: a case study

The authors examine the implications of G. L. v. Zumwalt, a case that resulted in a far-reaching consent decree that mandates specific reforms in policy and practice to be implemented by a public social welfare agency in its delivery of services to foster children and their families.     

STRATEGY AND INTERVENTION VERSUS NONINTERVENTION: A MATTER OF THEORY?*

The question of whether or not intervention and strategy are necessary components of competent therapy is described and related to the metaphorical assumptions of underlying theory. Passive listening and expert interpretations are consequences of psychodynamic theory. Active manipulation of social structure and strategic intervention into feedback are described as consequences of the mechanical assumptions of structural and cybernetic theory. Conversational participation and non intervention are described as necessary consequences of hermeneutic and linguistic approaches to therapy. It is concluded that different theoretical assumptions yield different conclusions regarding the nature of therapy and human problems. From this perspective the question of Intervention Versus Non-Intervention is more a matter of the theory held than a question to be answered in terms of the “right” or “adequate” thing to do or not do.     

Quality care for ill children: AIDS-specialized foster family homes

Children with AIDS and related complexes present a new and serious challenge to the child welfare field's foster care system. At this stage of the world's knowledge of AIDS and treatment capacity for its victims, the children are stigmatized as plague bearers, their viability is unknown, and few, if any, will ever have a home to return to. This article describes a special foster care demonstration in behalf of AIDS infants.