Quota fulfillment times

An example of the classical occupancy problem is to sample with replacement from an urn containing several colours of balls and count the number of balls sampled until a given number of “quotas” are filled. This and the corresponding random variable for sampling without replacement will be referred to as quota fulfillment times. Asymptotic and exact methods for computing moments and distributions are given in this paper. Moments of quota fulfillment times are related to moments of order statistics of beta and gamma random variables. Most of the results for sampling without replacement and some of the results for sampling with replacement are believed to be new. Some other known sampling-with-replacement results are given for comparative purposes.     

The involvement of canadian unions in political activities: An exploratory analysis

A conceptual framework is presented that depicts the political activities of public employee unions. The framework explicitly recognizes that access to elected officials affects unions’ ability to achieve political influence. Data covering 95 local unions in 26 major Canadian municipalities are used to test the framework. The results generally support the framework and suggest several observations about the effectiveness of union political activities. We are grateful to Susan Schwochau for helpful comments on an earlier draft of this paper.     

The components of family policy education

The study of family policy in the United States began relatively recently. The academic community increasingly has shown interest in this new policy arena. Much of the conceptual writing on family policy emerged from disciplines such as family studies, social work, political science, economics, and sociology. These academic units have recently modified their course curricula to include more family policy content. These family policy education efforts are discussed in this article. Specific suggestions are made concerning the development and content of family policy education, broader educational training for those who want to pursue a career in family policy, and future goals and directions for family policy education. She received her Ph. D. in Human Development and Family Studies from The Pennsylvania State University. Her research interests are in the family and health policy arenas, with particular focus on ethnically diverse populations. Her most recent research is on homeless children and mothers. She received her Ph.D. in Family Social Science from the University of Minnesota. Her teaching and research interests are workplace and family issues and family policy and impact analysis.     

What Should Be the Implications of Uncertainty,Variability, and Inherent “Biases”/“Conservatism” for Risk Management Decision-Making?

This paper is a challenge from a pair of lifelong technical specialists in risk assessment for the risk-management community to better define social decision criteria for risk acceptance vs. risk control in relation to the issues of variability and uncertainty. To stimulate discussion, we offer a variety of straw man proposals about where we think variability and uncertainty are likely to matter for different types of social policy considerations in the context of a few different kinds of decisions. In particular, we draw on recent presentations of uncertainty and variability data that have been offered by EPA in the context of the consideration of revised ambient air quality standards under the Clean Air Act.     

Responding to remediation and gatekeeping challenges in supervision

Thirty faculty in randomly selected Commission on Accreditation for Marriage and Family Therapy Education (COAMFTE) programs representing four geographical regions of the United States were asked to respond to a survey that included seven brief vignettes depicting gatekeeping and remediation challenges supervisors may face when working with therapists-in-training. Research participants were asked to select from among a range of 17 response options and were also asked to provide a rationale for the selection of their responses. The response rate for the mailed survey was 34%. Telephone interviews were conducted with three respondents who had provided especially detailed responses to the open-ended portions of the mailed survey and who also volunteered to be questioned regarding how supervision decisions are made. Results support the conclusion that COAMFTE faculty take their gatekeeping function seriously as they balance commitments to multiple stakeholders. When presented with hypothetical "bare-bones" vignettes, the supervisors in our study consistently recommended talking with the student in order to more fully understand the context of the student's performance problem before deciding how to proceed. Supervisors recommended a variety of remediation efforts, but reserved the most severe consequences, such as probation, dismissal, and filing an ethics complaint, for the vignette involving dishonesty and lack of personal integrity.     

Apostles and Zionists: the influence of religion on demographic change in rural Zimbabwe

Religion has acted as a brake on demographic transition in a number of historical and contemporary populations. In a study in two rural areas of Zimbabwe, we found substantial differences in recent demographic trends between Mission and Independent or "Spirit-type" churches. Birth rates are higher in some Spirit-type churches and, until recently, infant mortality was also higher. Recent increases in mortality were seen within Mission churches but not in Spirit-type churches. Missiological and ethnographic data indicate that differences in religious teaching on healthcare-seeking and sexual behaviour and differences in church regulation could explain this contrast in demographic patterns. More restrictive norms on alcohol consumption and extra-marital relationships in Spirit-type churches may limit the spread of HIV and thereby reduce its impact on mortality. These contrasting trends will influence the future religious and demographic profile of rural populations in Zimbabwe.     

A Sociodemographic Risk Index

In this paper, we conceptualize and develop an index of sociodemographic risk that we hypothesize will be an improvement over the standard poverty measure as a measure of risk for children’s development. The poverty line is widely used in government statistics and in research but is also widely acknowledged to have multiple shortcomings. Using recent data from the National Survey of America’s Families, we develop and examine a Sociodemographic Risk Index for two potential purposes: (a) to serve as a summary indicator of children’s environments that affect their well-being, and (b) to serve as a variable that can be used to identify at-risk subgroups of children whose well-being should be examined separately in indicator reports. Based on substantial research on children’s development, we chose five variables for the index: family income, family structure, parent education, family size, and home ownership. An additive sociodemographic risk index using these variables is strongly associated with multiple measures of child well-being in both bivariate and multivariate analyses. Hence, it serves as a good marker of risk for children and therefore as an indicator that could be monitored over time, across groups, and across places, as well as a variable that could be used to identify subgroups of at-risk children whose well-being should be monitored. However, analyses do not indicate that it performs better at identifying at-risk children than the current poverty measure. Therefore, we recommend the Sociodemographic Risk Index primarily as an additional summary indicator to be monitored, rather than as a replacement for the poverty measure.     

The Relationship between Country of Residence, Gender and the Quality of Life in Australian and Taiwanese Midlife Residents

A growing global aging population is presenting more opportunities for health professionals to interact with other cultures. The specific aims of this study were to: (1) compare the quality of life of midlife men and women in Australian and Taiwan; and (2) to explore the impact of country of residence and gender on quality of life. A cross-sectional survey was conducted using census data and a probability proportional sampling (PPS) strategy on a general population of men and women aged 40–59 years-old who live permanently in Taiwan and Australia. The sample consisted of 278 Australians and 398 Taiwanese men and women. Analysis showed that country of residence does have an impact on quality of life with significant differences seen between midlife Australian and Taiwanese men and women (F 4, 666 = 59.31, p < 0.001). The results suggest that midlife Australian men and women have a better quality of life than midlife Taiwanese men and women. The mean score for the four domains of quality of life by gender indicated that midlife women consider that they have a better quality of life than midlife men in both Australia and Taiwan. Midlife Australian men in this study reported they are more dissatisfied with their sleep and rest (χ ² = 10.57, df = 4, p = 0.03) and more dissatisfied with their sexual activities (χ ² = 9.42, df = 4, p = 0.05) in contrast to midlife Australian women. This study has addressed and contributed to the assessment of multi-cultural quality of life research and has important implications for both health providers and policy makers of both countries.     

Estimating russification of ethnic identity among non-Russians in the USSR

Many scholars have asserted that extensive ethnic russification has occurred in Tsarist Russia and the Soviet Union, but little effort has been devoted to making quantitative estimates of the extent of assimilation or of the differences among ethnic groups in tendencies to assimilate. A method of estimating ethnic reidentification in the USSR is described and evaluated. The expected number of survivors to the second census date for each age cohort of a given ethnic group is compared to the reported number of cohort members at the second census date to determine the net number who have changed their ethnic self-identification between censuses. The method establishes relative differences in the propensity to reidentify ethnically among 26 Soviet ethnic groups. Many small ethnic groups in European Russia are found to have very high estimated rates of ethnic russification; non-Russian Slavs—Ukrainians and Belorussians—are found to have fairly low estimated rates of ethnic russification. The implications of the Russian gain in population through ethnic reidentification also are assessed.