Two-tailed approximate confidence intervals for the ratio of proportions

Various approximate methods have been proposed for obtaining a two-tailed confidence interval for the ratio R of two proportions (independent samples). This paper evaluates 73 different methods (64 of which are new methods or modifications of older methods) and concludes that: (1) none of the classic methods (including the well-known score method) is acceptable since they are too liberal; (2), the best of the classic methods is the one based on logarithmic transformation (after increasing the data by 0.5), but it is only valid for large samples and moderate values of R; (3) the best methods among the 73 methods is based on an approximation to the score method (after adding 0.5 to all the data), with the added advantage of obtaining the interval by a simple method (i.e. solving a second degree equation); and (4) an option that is simpler than the previous one, and which is almost as effective for moderate values of R, consists of applying the classic Wald method (after adding a quantity to the data which is usually $z_{\alpha /2}^{2}/4$ ).     

An Automated MCEM Algorithm for Hierarchical Models with Multivariate and Multitype Response Variables

In this article, we consider a model allowing the analysis of multivariate data, which can contain data attributes of different types (e.g., continuous, discrete, binary). This model is a two-level hierarchical model which supports a wide range of correlation structures and can accommodate overdispersed data. Maximum likelihood estimation of the model parameters is achieved with an automated Monte Carlo expectation maximization algorithm. Our method is tested in a simulation study in the bivariate case and applied to a data set dealing with beehive activity.     

Women and philanthropy in Argentina: from the society of beneficence to Eva Perón

This article focuses on the history of voluntary associations in Argentina over the past 200 years. Argentine voluntary associations have their roots in the alliance of the Catholic church, the state and the country's elites, in which women played major roles. The charitable stage can be divided into two phases: the first (1600–1899) was encouraged mainely by the church, in particular through the Sisters of Charity; the second (1820–1940) took shape under state patronage in a period of centralisation and secularisation. TheSociety of Beneficence, a quasi-public institution run by wealthy women, emerged as the most important institution for public assistance until the formation of the Eva Perón Foundation, which became the paradigmatic form of social assistance in the 1940s. Nevertheless, the approach adopted by the Foundation differed very little from those of its precursors. Within this framework the current social development model attempts to reconfigure the relationships between the public institutions and civil society. Anahí Viladrich is currently a consultant at the Center for the Study of Philanthropy for the International Research ProjectWomen and Philanthropy.     

Men's recognition of violence against women and spousal abuse: comparison of three groups of men

Our goal was to assess whether men in the following three groups differ in their ability to recognize and judge the severity of diverse forms of aggressive behavior: (a) men who reported being physically aggressive toward their spouses and who were entering treatment for domestic violence; (b) men who, after participating in a treatment program, were no longer physically violent; and (c) men who reported never having been physically violent towards their spouses (NPV group-non-physically violent). All 81 men in the study reported being verbally aggressive toward their spouses. Men who had been in treatment for spousal abuse and who had not been physically violent toward their spouses since finishing the program were better able than the other two groups to recognize emotionally abusive behaviors.     

WANT EXPORT DIVERSIFICATION? EDUCATE THE KIDS FIRST

This paper uses Bayesian model averaging to uncover the true determinants of export diversification among 36 potential factors, and thus 2³⁶ potential models. Using data from 2001 to 2010, our results reveal two strong predictors: Primary school enrollment (99.7% posterior inclusion probability in the true model) raises export diversification, whereas the share of natural resources in gross domestic product (98.6%) lowers diversification levels. The importance of basic education coverage offers policymakers an opening toward diversifying exports, at least in the long run. This result is robust to accounting for the endogeneity of income levels by applying an instrumental variable BMA method. (JEL C11, F1, F34, O1, O2, O11)     

Bias correction for time series factor models

In this paper we work with multivariate time series that follow a Factor Model. In particular, we consider the setting where factors are dominated by highly persistent AutoRegressive (AR) processes and samples that are rather small. Therefore, the factors' AR models are estimated using small sample bias correction techniques. A Monte Carlo study reveals that bias-correcting the AR coefficients of the factors allows to obtain better results in terms of prediction interval coverage. As expected, the simulation shows that bias-correction is more successful for smaller samples. We present the results assuming the AR order and number of factors are known as well as unknown. We also study the advantages of this technique for a set of Industrial Production Indexes of several European countries.     

A gender story of institutional disengagement of young adults in Latin America

Latin America is home to many young adults who are neither engaged in formal education nor work, controversially dubbed as “nini” (“ni” trabajan “ni” estudian, denoting neither working nor studying). At the same time, early union formation and parenthood are pervasive in the region. Theories pertaining to the linkage between parenthood and female labor force participation are heavily based on evidence found in the Global North, with limited research on the topic in settings with less stable family structures, such as Latin American countries. This study tests the role household structure and family formation play on institutional disengagement of young adults in 12 Latin American countries. We explore the gender dynamic of human capital stagnation by focusing on early parenthood and conjugal partnership for women and men aged 20–25. We use censuses from the Integrated Public-Use Microdata Series and country-specific linear regression models. Our results reveal that the intersection of class and gender is a major determinant of institutional disengagement in the region. Women from lower social origins who leave parental home to enter conjugal union and parenthood at younger ages are particularly at risk. This study highlights the urgency of contextualizing the interplay between work and family within the framework of regional family norms, prompting further dialogues concerning the social implications of perceived inactivity.     

From local champions to global players: A long-term perspective on Swiss companies’ connections across territorial scales

Corporate interlocking at the national and transnational scale has received substantive scholarly attention. Less is known about companies’ ties to the cities and regions in which they have their seats. In this paper, we conduct a long-term analysis of the multilevel ties that companies maintain with the local and the national context they are embedded in. To do so, we adopt a positional approach and identify the directors of the major companies in the three largest Swiss cities (Basel, Geneva, and Zurich) and study company directors’ ties to local and national organizations in seven benchmark years between 1890 and 2020. Our analysis documents the rise and fall of company directors’ ties to national organizations over the course of the 20th century, and it highlights the continued persistence of companies’ ties to the local level and their region until the new millennium, when companies’ ties with national and local organizations vanish, coinciding with the transnationalization of company boards.