Through Civil War, Food Crisis and Drought: Trends in Fertility and Nuptiality in Post-Soviet Tajikistan

This article has two objectives. First, it aims to complement and extend existing research on post-socialist demographic change, which has thus far tended to focus on Central and Eastern Europe. It does this by describing the nature of post-Soviet trends in nuptiality and fertility in Tajikistan, the republic with the highest rate of population growth during the Soviet period. It finds evidence for a decrease in period fertility after independence: initially, through a decline at higher orders; then, through a significant decrease in the rate of first births, associated with a dramatic decrease in the rate of first union formation since the mid-1990s. Second, it aims to contribute to the demography of conflict and of food crisis. Most clearly, it finds strong evidence for a decrease in nuptiality and fertility associated with the 1995 food crisis.     

The exponential distribution analog of the Grubbs–Weaver method

Abstract

Grubbs and Weaver (1947 Grubbs, F. E., and C. L. Weaver. 1947. The best unbiased estimate of population standard deviation based on group ranges. Journal of the American Statistical Association 42 (238):224–41. doi: 10.2307/2280652.[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) suggest a minimum-variance unbiased estimator for the population standard deviation of a normal random variable, where a random sample is drawn and a weighted sum of the ranges of subsamples is calculated. The optimal choice involves using as many subsamples of size eight as possible. They verified their results numerically for samples of size up to 100, and conjectured that their “rule of eights” is valid for all sample sizes. Here we examine the analogous problem where the underlying distribution is exponential and find that a “rule of fours” yields optimality and prove the result rigorously.     

In the shadow of fortress Europe? Impacts of European migration governance on Slovenia,Croatia and Macedonia

ABSTRACT

This article analyses European integration's effects on migration and border security governance in Slovenia, Croatia and Macedonia in the context of ‘governed interdependence’. We show how transgovernmental networks comprising national and EU actors, plus a range of other participants, blur the distinction between the domestic and international to enable interactions between domestic and international policy elites that transmit EU priorities into national policy. Governments are shown to be ‘willing pupils’ and ‘policy takers’, adapting to EU policy as a pre-condition for membership. This strengthened rather than weakened central state actors, particularly interior ministries. Thus, in a quintessentially ‘national’ policy area, there has been a re-scaling and re-constitution of migration and border security policy. To support this analysis, social network analysis is used to outline the composition of governance networks and analyse interactions and power relations therein.     

Visualization for Large‐scale Gaussian Updates

In geostatistics and also in other applications in science and engineering, it is now common to perform updates on Gaussian process models with many thousands or even millions of components. These large‐scale inferences involve modelling, representational and computational challenges. We describe a visualization tool for large‐scale Gaussian updates, the ‘medal plot’. The medal plot shows the updated uncertainty at each observation location and also summarizes the sharing of information across observations, as a proxy for the sharing of information across the state vector (or latent process). As such, it reflects characteristics of both the observations and the statistical model. We illustrate with an application to assess mass trends in the Antarctic Ice Sheet, for which there are strong constraints from the observations and the physics.     

Gambling Behavior of Student-Athletes and a Student Cohort: What are the Odds?

This study investigated the prevalence of gambling, gambling related NCAA violations, and disordered gambling in student-athletes (n = 736) with a comparison cohort of students (n = 1,071) at four universities. Student-athletes reported similar rates of gambling frequency, use of a bookmaker, and disordered gambling as students. After accounting for demographic differences, student-athletes were less likely to engage in sports wagering than students. Several risk factors for disordered gambling were identified, including being male and reporting at least one parent with a history of gambling problems. These findings suggest that problems associated with gambling are a university-wide issue with student-athletes meriting additional attention because of implications for the integrity of intercollegiate sports. Improved prevention and intervention efforts for collegiate gambling are recommended.     

'The grit in the oyster': Community development workers in a modernizing local authority

This article offers a brief overview of the challenges facingUK local authorities, including the need to enhance public participationin decision making and service delivery, improve service performanceand increase partnership working. It explores the potentialcontribution of community development work to meeting thesechallenges, drawing on a case study of one UK county council.The essential tensions and conflicts in the role of communitydevelopment workers in a local authority are highlighted, showinghow the modernization process introduced by the New Labour governmentis adding further layers of complexity and ambiguity.     

Rurality and Income Inequality in the United States, 1975–2015

Recent events have focused attention on the perceived widening of the economic divide between urban and rural areas, and on the continued rise of national income inequality. We demonstrate that, in fact, the average income gap between urban (metropolitan) and rural (nonmetropolitan) households has not risen over the past 40 years, and makes virtually no contribution to national income inequality. Rising national inequality is driven by rising inequality within both urban and rural America, not by an urban/rural divergence. As is well known, the growing dispersion of household money income is partly driven by rising wage inequality, particularly in urban areas. Less well recognized is the role played by other income sources. We show that a decline in the progressivity of the distribution of social security payments and cash transfers, and an increase in the regressivity of the distribution of retirement incomes, have jointly made a comparably large contribution to rising income inequality. At the same time, the share of income from self-employment has declined, particularly in rural America, and because self-employment income is very unequally distributed, its diminution has retarded the growth of rural inequality. In 2014–15, however, rural inequality increased, cutting the urban/rural inequality gap in half.     

Infant screen exposure links to toddlers' inhibition,but not other EF constructs: A propensity score study

Technology is pervasive in homes of families with young children, despite evidence for negative associations between infant exposure to screen‐based media and cognitive development that has led the American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP) to discourage parents from exposing children under the age of 18 months to any kind of screen time (AAP, 2016). Here, we apply a propensity score matching approach to estimate relations between electronic screen‐based media use in infancy and executive function in early toddlerhood. In an international sample of 416 firstborn infants, parental report of regular exposure to screen‐based media at 4 months predicted poorer performance on a test of inhibition at 14 months, but was unrelated to either cognitive flexibility or working memory at 14 months. Results of this study are therefore consistent with the view that early exposure to screen‐based media adversely affects the development of executive function.     

“To get the word out”: LGBTQ+ Young adults’ motivations for participating in qualitative research studies

Understanding why socially marginalized individuals, such as lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender and/or queer (LGBTQ+) people, participate in research can improve qualitative research designs, as well as social services and policies. In providing a participant-centered foundation, we interviewed 65 LGBTQ+ young adults and asked “Why are certain LGBTQ+ young adults motivated to engage in qualitative social science studies?” Many LGBTQ+ young people said they were committed to enacting social change and promoting advocacy. Participants also highlighted supporting scientific research and knowledge production. Finally, LGBTQ?+ participants engaged with research to introspectively analyze their identity development processes. These findings can facilitate access to socially vulnerable and underrepresented groups through a methodological focus on participant benefits.