经济预测中的Monte Carlo模拟及方差控制——以国际石油价格预测为例

从MDnte Carlo模拟的实现过程入手，首先通过对Monte Carlo方法原理的阐述来介绍该种方法。进一步结合具体的实例通过计算机进行模拟来解释Monte Carlo方法的具体实现过程。重点讨论在选择合理的数据生成过程的前提下，如何在Monte Carlo方法中减少模拟方差，从而提高估计精度，更好地应用这种方法来进行经济预测。     

论诚实信用原则在保险法上的运用

保险法作为我国民商法体系中重要的商事单行法,必能在其中看到诚实信用原则的应用,要求当事人在民商事活动中以善意的态度行使权利和履行义务,在不损害他人利益的前提下追求自己的利益.     

A (macro) sociology of fear?

A proper sociological approach to fear is of both empirical and theoretical significance in understanding late modern society. Normally fear has been explored psychologically, as one of the emotions, but recently a sociology of emotions has begun to emerge. Furthermore, there have also been attempts to examine fear macro‐scopically, arguing for the existence of a distinctive ‘culture of fear’ in contemporary societies. Furedi's argument to this effect is explored here, suggesting the need for a more systematic theorising of fear in its social contexts. Via an analysis of the elementary characteristics of fear, a model is constructed of the ‘parameters of fear’. This model serves as a guide to the classes of phenomena within which fear is constituted and negotiated. It is also used to further examine the virtues and failings of ‘culture of fear’ approaches to fearfulness in modern societies.     

羌族“释比”的传承和谱系研究

“释比”是羌族文化的集大成者，在羌族人的生产生活中扮演着精神领袖的角色，是羌族非物质文化遗产保护的重点对象。在对羌族“释比”的来历和社会角色进行梳理的基础上，论述了“释比”的传承过程，并首次对其谱系展开研究。     

当下文学消费时尚化的四个特征

文学消费是一种特殊的精神产品消费，当人们以时尚的方式来对待文学的阅读或欣赏时，文学消费的时尚化就会日渐其隆，而且呈现出四个方面的特征：文学消费主体日趋“小资”化、低龄化；消费对象日趋偶像化、明星化；消费方式日趋视听化、影像化；消费目的日趋娱乐化、消闲化。对当下文学消费的时尚化现象，我们不应给予简单的否定或肯定，而是应以辩证的观点、发展的眼光进行积极引导。     

基于旅西日本游客旅游选择行为的西安旅游市场分析

根据在全国六大旅游热点城市所做的旅游市场调查的数据结果，对旅西日本游客的旅游选择行为进行了研究，同时进一步有针对性地对西安日本客源市场进行了SWOT分析，在此基础上，对西安旅游业的发展提出了相关对策建议。     

潜在客户资产测量研究

客户资产由当前客户资产和潜在客户资产两部分组成，对潜在客户资产测量问题尚未有系统的研究。在客户购买行为建模研究的基础上，提出由客户获取预测分析、客户购买行为分析和客户费用分析组成的潜在客户资产测量方法框架，总结了可用的模型，并用实证案例说明；提出利用当前潜在客户资产分析矩阵分析指导投资和管理决策的方法。     

巩固和发展和谐的社会主义民族关系——对散居少数民族权益保障问题的思考

随着社会和经济的发展，少数民族公民散居于各地的趋势日益明显，民族散居化的格局日益突出。进一步重视少数民族工作，注意保障散居少数民族权益，对更好的巩固和发展和谐的社会主义民族关系具有重要的现实意义。可以从观念上、立法上进一步完善散居少数民族权益保障法律制度。     

《马端肃公诗集》刊刻、流传及价值初考

《马端肃公诗集》是明代中期著名政治家马文升的诗集，白寿彝先生在其主编的《回族人物志》中认为该诗集已经佚失。其实，《马端肃公诗集》自明代万历十八年（1590）刊刻后就一直在流传，并于20世纪初收藏在南京图书馆。笔者试对《马端肃公诗集》的刊刻、流传情况及价值作一考论。     

Regulating Land Development: Local Market Structures and Structured Markets

Current rounds of economic restructuring together with the changing priorities accorded to agricultural production are leading to significant shifts in rural property and tenure relations. This paper analyzes these processes with reference to rural Britain; it reports on empirical evidence collected in the county of Buckinghamshire in southeast England. Two significant types of new rural land development are considered—small-scale industrial units arising out of the conversion of agricultural buildings and golf course developments and their ancillary leisure-based activities. Post-war productionist forms of regulation and particularly established types of agricultural tenure are now being modified by farmers and nonagricultural interests committed to the development of rural land. New demands and market structures are requiring more diversity and flexibility by which land is owned, occupied, and used. These emergent, more flexible macro tenures are based on new sets of social and political alliances between farmers, developers, and local planning systems. Agricultural land is increasingly being viewed as a capital rather than as a productive asset associated with more volatile and regionally defined markets whose regulation is formative.