Quantifying experts' uncertainty about the future cost of exotic diseases

Since the foot-and-mouth disease outbreak of 2001 in the United Kingdom, there has been debate about the sharing, between government and industry, both the costs of livestock disease outbreaks and responsibility for the decisions that give rise to them. As part of a consultation into the formation of a new body to manage livestock diseases, government veterinarians and economists produced estimates of the average annual costs for a number of exotic infectious diseases. In this article, we demonstrate how the government experts were helped to quantify their uncertainties about the cost estimates using formal expert elicitation techniques. This has enabled the decisionmakers to have a greater appreciation of government experts' uncertainty in this policy area.     

论西方大学组织文化的价值取向——以大学校训为例

大学校训随着近现代意义上大学的创建而产生,反映了大学深厚的历史传统与文化底蕴,集中体现了大学作为一个社会组织特有的文化个性和精神理念,引领着大学的价值取向,反映了大学独具特色的组织文化。西方大学校训具有“追求真理”、“崇尚自由、“服务社会”的价值取向,建立了完善的大学组织文化,使大学自身与社会和谐发展,在原有培养人才、科学研究和服务社会三大职能的基础上进一步拓展,成为经济社会发展的发动机和服务站,从而适应当今科技、学术、文化飞速发展的要求。     

地道战再研——以"五一""扫荡"后之冀中地区为中心的考察

地道战是冀中军民在反击日军"扫荡"的过程中产生,随着战争形势的变化而逐步发展的.有关冀中地道战的研究始于20世纪40年代.但是,尽管有关地道战的研究开展较早,尽管人们通过各种媒介已经对之耳熟能详,客观来讲,有关地道战的研究还很不完善甚至可以说很薄弱,有一些具体问题还需要继续探讨.本文从"五一""扫荡"后冀中地道战开展的动因、地道战开展过程中所取得的战绩、地道战开展过程中所体现的特点及其在抗日战争中所起的作用等三个方面对冀中地道战进行了再研究.文章认为,地道战不仅在中国军事战争史上是一个创造,即便是在世界军事战争史上也是一个奇迹,它是第二次世界大战时期在中国特殊环境下形成的一种斗争方式,具有战争范式的重大意义,冀中军民在开展地道战过程中结合本地实际情况所体现出来的求实、创新、奋斗精神永远值得我们后人学习.     

Representing children's views and best interests in court: an international comparison

This paper provides a comparison of a number of alternative models of international practice in relation to the appointment and organization of guardians ad litem and other children's representatives in child care and family proceedings. The paper notes that, in their attempts to address the need for children to have representation in matters affecting their welfare, English‐speaking countries have tended to conflate the two salient Articles of the United Nations Convention on the Rights of the Child, that is, Article 3, which deals with the child's best interests, and Article 12, which deals with their right to express their wishes and feelings. Where systems other than ‘stand alone’ legal representation have been put in place, the child's representative is charged with both assessing their best interests and, often as a secondary duty, communicating their views. The paper concludes that for some groups of children in public or private law proceedings, an advocate (rather than a best interest oriented guardian, and where necessary in addition to a legal representative) may enable better representation of the child in the courts and greater participation by children in legal proceedings, an increased role for children as citizens and a fuller implementation of their rights. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

坚持实事求是坚持自主选择——民族地区农村中小学布局结构调整问题访谈

在这篇访谈中,滕星教授针对民族地区农村中小学布局结构调整问题指出,坚持实事求是、坚持自主选择是民族地区农村中小学教育良性运行和发展的指导原则。     

Improved confidence estimators for Fieller's confidence sets

Fieller's confidence set C_F for ratios of location parameters, although of great importance in practice, is often cited as an example to criticize frequentist theory. The reason is that the set can consist of the whole parameter space and yet the confidence is γ = 1 – α in any case. In this paper, we study the problem of constructing data-dependent estimators better than γ₊, A reasonable estimator appears to be γ₊, which is one if C_F is the whole parameter space and γ otherwise. By using an estimated confidence approach and a squared-error loss, it is shown that γ₊ dominates γ. The risk improvement of γ₊ over γ can be sizable. Also, by numerically comparing γ₊ with a generalized Bayes estimator γ_L, which is shown to be admissible when one or two ratios are concerned, it is shown that γ₊ is nearly admissible. We also conclude that the common practice of reporting 1 – α only when C_F is not the whole parameter space is nearly admissible.     

基于CISCO交换机的校园VLAN设计、实现与优化

文章针对由Cisco Catalyst 65xx,35xx,29xx交换机组建的校园网络，介绍了如何利用VLAN技术对网络进行规划、实施，并对其中VTP Domain设计、VTP Trunk配置、EtherChannel配置、VTP裁剪、STP优化及VLAN数目过多等问题的解决做了详细的阐述。     

在Solaris环境下通过实现chroot增进系统安全性

服务器安全有操作系统本身的安全问题和由某些进程提供的服务引起的安全问题，而很多入侵是通过后台进程破坏系统的．在UNIX／l，INUX系统上，chroot是一种减小系统暴露程度，来降低由后台进程引起的安全问题的有效方法．由于DNS服务器的安全会直接影响到网络的可访问性，本文以BIND为例详细描述了如何使用chroot增进校园网DNS系统的安全性，并总结了在Solaris8环境下实现chroot的一般方法．     

国际社会基本特征实证分析--20世纪90年代--21世纪初

国际社会是个历史范畴,是人类社会发展到各个实体相互联系日益密切,相互依赖日益深化,相互作用日益加强时期的产物.国际社会是人类各个政治共同体或国家相互交往关系的总和,或指因共同的物质条件而相互联系在一起的世界共同体.国际社会是由主权国家、国际组织、跨国公司、个体政治家、政治活动家等多种元素组成.国际社会有三个基本特征:一、国际社会各个主体既相互依存,又相互矛盾.二、国际社会具有松散性和无政府性.三、国际社会的发展是动态的平衡.     

Developing Employment Opportunities for Care Leavers

This article describes an action research project carried out in North West England that aimed to assist Children’s Services Departments and Care Trusts in developing their strategies for supporting care leavers into employment and training. The study found a range of models and approaches that can be utilised to develop local and regional partnerships offering employment and training opportunities designed to meet the needs of care leavers. Relevant questions about the extent to which such opportunities should be ring‐fenced or targeted on particular fields of employment are identified. © 2010 The Author(s). Children & Society © 2010 National Children’s Bureau.