Bayesian Forecasting of Many Count-Valued Time Series

Abstract

We develop and exemplify application of new classes of dynamic models for time series of nonnegative counts. Our novel univariate models combine dynamic generalized linear models for binary and conditionally Poisson time series, with dynamic random effects for over-dispersion. These models estimate dynamic regression coefficients in both binary and nonzero count components. Sequential Bayesian analysis allows fast, parallel analysis of sets of decoupled time series. New multivariate models then enable information sharing in contexts when data at a more highly aggregated level provide more incisive inferences on shared patterns such as trends and seasonality. A novel multiscale approach—one new example of the concept of decouple/recouple in time series—enables information sharing across series. This incorporates cross-series linkages while insulating parallel estimation of univariate models, and hence enables scalability in the number of series. The major motivating context is supermarket sales forecasting. Detailed examples drawn from a case study in multistep forecasting of sales of a number of related items showcase forecasting of multiple series, with discussion of forecast accuracy metrics, comparisons with existing methods, and broader questions of probabilistic forecast assessment.     

Trapped bodies,moving minds: Uncertainty and migration among marginalised urban youth in Ethiopia

This paper from YOUR World Research highlights and explores the role of positive uncertainty in lives, strategies and transitions towards adulthood of marginalised children and youth in two urban locations in Ethiopia. Young men and women embraced notions of positive uncertainty, making journeys to street situations and internationally in search of more hopeful futures. While youth navigate uncertainty positively in the short term, the research suggests this is temporal and their agency relational and embedded. They seek support from peers but still want to belong and be accepted by their families and communities.     

Most and Least Meaningful Learning Experiences in Marriage and Family Therapy Education

Marriage and family therapy educators increasingly emphasize training competencies. What we know less about is what makes family therapy education meaningful to marriage and family therapy (MFT) graduate students and what does not. In this study, through an Internet survey, we explored the most and least meaningful learning experiences of 68 MFT graduate students and recent graduates of Commission on Accreditation for Marriage and Family Therapy Education—accredited programs. We used thematic analysis to identify and illustrate resulting themes, which included the importance of experiential and personal components to learning, the professor‐student alliance, tying theory to practice, and the experiences of students with their clients, among others. We discuss the implications of these findings to support family therapy education and offer tentative suggestions for formative discussions both within and across programs. Video Abstract is found in the online version of the article .     

Flight of the Conchords: Recontextualizing the voices of popular culture1

Folk‐comedy duo, Flight of the Conchords, have become one of New Zealand's most successful musical exports, having attracted a large international audience through their American‐produced TV series. One of their central comic devices is to stylize well‐known singers and their music. This article focuses on how Flight of the Conchords shift their phonetic style towards that of various target personas, and how they maintain their own voices as comedians in the process. An acoustic analysis compares Flight of the Conchords’ pronunciation of four vowels (kit , dress , trap , and goat) to the pronunciation of the pop singers being stylized. Both Jemaine Clement and Bret McKenzie manipulate their vowel production towards that of the targeted personas. They also maintain some distance from their targeted roles through a range of devices including the use of exaggerated phonetic style. Through their performances, Flight of the Conchords recontextualize and parody a range of popular cultural products, continuing the enregisterment of certain phonetic styles with the voices of well‐known characterological figures.     

Exploring structural habitat heterogeneity in sustainable urban drainage systems (SUDS) for urban biodiversity support

Implementation of sustainable urban drainage systems (SUDS) as part of cities’ transition towards climate resilience encompasses unique opportunities to enhance urban nature qualities. SUDS include individual elements integrated in the urban landscape, e.g. rain gardens or wet basins, which are usually constructed with low structural heterogeneity. Structural heterogeneity of habitats is, however, associated with a high degree of biodiversity. This study explored potentials of habitat heterogeneity enhancement in SUDS using structural heterogeneity as a proxy for biodiversity potential. In an interdisciplinary workshop, landscape architects and urban ecologists designed individual SUDS elements with enhanced structural habitat heterogeneity, hereafter bio-SUDS. The redesigned SUDS elements were infiltration trench, curb extension, rain garden, swale, wet basin, and dry basin. To evaluate the bio-SUDS designs, we developed an index of habitat heterogeneity in SUDS based on registration of 45 structurally important components. The conversion from standard SUDS to bio-SUDS entailed substantial increases in structural heterogeneity ranging from 4 to 18 additional components within elements. Larger bio-SUDS elements returned higher index scores, but the relative score increases were substantial for all bio-SUDS and in the range of a factor of 2–5.5. Increased terrain differences, meandering edges, stones, gravel, boulders, deadwood, and brown roof-like vegetation were the components most often employed in the bio-SUDS designs. In conclusion, implementation of bio-SUDS has potential to increase structural habitat heterogeneity thereby providing habitat for biodiversity in urban green areas. The developed bio-SUDS index can assist in future assessments of ecological qualities in designs and real-world SUDS elements.     

The relational determinants of nonprofit Web site fundraising effectiveness: An exploratory study

In this article, we develop a framework for assessing the relational content of nonprofit Internet sites. We operationalize this as a series of eight relational constructs applicable to the context of Web site design and operation and explore the relationship between the presence of these dimensions and the fundraising performance of nonprofit Web sites. We conclude that accessibility, accountability, education, interaction, and empowerment are significantly correlated with the number of new donors a site is able to attract, and that accessibility, accountability, and education are also highly correlated with the total value of online donations offered.     

'Staying on': the effects of recent changes in educational participation for 17–19 year-olds in Norway and Scotland

In this paper we consider some of the implications of the growth of educational participation for the labour market integration of young people between the ages of 17 and 19 in Norway and Scotland. In particular, we focus on the experiences of disadvantaged youth and assess the extent to which they benefit from participation in post-compulsory schooling. We argue that in terms of success on the labour market, post-compulsory secondary education is only beneficial to those intending to continue into Higher Education. We demonstrate the existence of persistent inequalities among 'non-traditional stayers', and show that despite greater access to post-compulsory education, young people from middle class families still retain important advantages in both Norway and Scotland. However, we argue that in Scotland, females and those from less advantaged social positions are more disadvantaged than their Norwegian counterparts.     

Hot Jobs in Cool Places. The Material Cultures of New Media Product Spaces: The Case of South of the Market, San Francisco

This paper explores the localization of new media production in San Francisco. It is contextualized within a debate about the material culture of cyberspace. Much rhetoric has been expended in 'reading off' idealized 'online' worlds into probable 'off-line' worlds: the 'death of geography' is a case in point. The case is made for a corrective to both the idealist-culturalist, and the materialist techno-economic, accounts of cyberspace that accords an opportunity for both to infuse one another. The paper uses the concept of the material cultural practice of making products, underpinned by the notion of product space, to argue in favour of a co-construction of the 'off-' and 'online' worlds. The case study illustrates the point of how the most ecstatic 'online' community is rooted in a particular space and place, and how 'off-line' practices are essential to its 'online' presence.