The current state of the labor queue: National and regional Evidence

We employ vector autoregressive techniques to determine the current state of the labor queue. Unemployment rate differentials have narrowed in recent years, potentially due to a change in the queue ordering, though a tight labor market and a stable queue would yield similar results. We find no evidence that the queue ordering has changed, which brings into question the resiliency of gains made by minority groups. We employ the same techniques to reveal the state of the queue across geographic regions and find that substantial differences exist across regions, implying variation in the relative labor force status of demographic groups.     

产业集群核心竞争力分析

在经济全球化的今天,产业集群逐渐成为地区、国家之间经济竞争的主要模式。本文探讨了产业集群核心竞争力的框架及其根本所在,最终将它归结为集群内所独有的合作的、信任的、宽容的、激励的、创新的网络经济关系,并由此提出了提升我国产业集群核心竞争力的几点对策建议。     

生物学中的相异构想及转变探讨

研究表明，学生学习科学的过程是一种由前概念向科学概念转变的过程。学生头脑中形成的与科学概念不一致的相异构想是造成学生学习困难的重要原因。本文分析了学生在生物学学习中相异构想的成因及来源，并在此基础上提出了生物学教学中相异构想的转变模式及策略。     

Factor analysis for ranked data with application to a job selection attitude survey

Summary.  Factor analysis is a powerful tool to identify the common characteristics among a set of variables that are measured on a continuous scale. In the context of factor analysis for non-continuous-type data, most applications are restricted to item response data only. We extend the factor model to accommodate ranked data. The Monte Carlo expectation–maximization algorithm is used for parameter estimation at which the E-step is implemented via the Gibbs sampler. An analysis based on both complete and incomplete ranked data (e.g. rank the top q out of k items) is considered. Estimation of the factor scores is also discussed. The method proposed is applied to analyse a set of incomplete ranked data that were obtained from a survey that was carried out in GuangZhou, a major city in mainland China, to investigate the factors affecting people's attitude towards choosing jobs.     

从冲突到秩序:政治冲突调控机制分析

冲突是不可避免的政治现象,是政治的内在属性.政治冲突具有不同的功能和强度,这为政治冲突调控机制的选择提供了路径依赖.政治冲突的调控是内力和外力共同作用的结果.所以,政治冲突的调控机制也就包括了自我调控和政府调控两大机制,它们共同推动和维持政治系统的动态稳定,实现从冲突到秩序的转换.     

Bayesian analysis of a marked point process: Application in seismic hazard assessment

Point processes are the stochastic models most suitable for describing physical phenomena that appear at irregularly spaced times, such as the earthquakes. These processes are uniquely characterized by their conditional intensity, that is, by the probability that an event will occur in the infinitesimal interval (t, t+Δt), given the history of the process up tot. The seismic phenomenon displays different behaviours on different time and size scales; in particular, the occurrence of destructive shocks over some centuries in a seismogenic region may be explained by the elastic rebound theory. This theory has inspired the so-called stress release models: their conditional intensity translates the idea that an earthquake produces a sudden decrease in the amount of strain accumulated gradually over time along a fault, and the subsequent event occurs when the stress exceeds the strength of the medium. This study has a double objective: the formulation of these models in the Bayesian framework, and the assignment to each event of a mark, that is its magnitude, modelled through a distribution that depends at timet on the stress level accumulated up to that instant. The resulting parameter space is constrained and dependent on the data, complicating Bayesian computation and analysis. We have resorted to Monte Carlo methods to solve these problems.     

Population constraints on pooled surveys in demographic hazard modeling

In non-experimental research, data on the same population process may be collected simultaneously by more than one instrument. For example, in the present application, two sample surveys and a population birth registration system all collect observations on first births by age and year, while the two surveys additionally collect information on women’s education. To make maximum use of the three data sources, the survey data are pooled and the population data introduced as constraints in a logistic regression equation. Reductions in standard errors about the age and birth-cohort parameters of the regression equation in the order of three-quarters are obtained by introducing the population data as constraints. A halving of the standard errors about the education parameters is achieved by pooling observations from the larger survey dataset with those from the smaller survey. The percentage reduction in the standard errors through imposing population constraints is independent of the total survey sample size.     

关于大都市灾害管理之研究——以日本大都市灾害管理为中心

本文以日本政府及东京等大城市灾害管理政策、行政体制及实例为对象,分析研究了大城市在自然灾害管理中所应注意的问题和经验教训,为大城市的灾害管理提供借鉴.