TEACHING THE INDEPENDENCE OF X AND S2 IN APPLIED STATISTICS*

In this note, the independence of X and S² is proved without the prerequisite knowledge of differential calculus. The purpose is to compensate for the lack of a text in applied statistics that proves the independence of such statistics.     

Decision settings analysis – a tool for analysis and design of human activity systems

The paper describes a methodology to be used for analysis and design of human activity systems. The methodology is based on an analysis of the decision settings whereas most other decision analysis methodologies are analysing the process. The decision concept is analysed and discussed. A distinction between programmed and programmable as well as non-programmed and non-programmable decisions is proposed. A classification of different information types for decision making is presented. A methodology based on a systemic and systematic analysis of the information requirements of an organization is proposed. This methodology also indicates organizational discrepancies and information imbalances. The methodology focuses the settings of the decisions on all levels of organizations. The methodology can be regarded as a dynamic, learning system. The author proposes further research on the individuals decision making abilities.     

Civil Commitment for Drug Dependency

In recent proposals for new legislation in New South Wales for dealing with drug-dependent persons, opinion has been sharply divided over the issues for and against civil commitment for drug abuse per se. This paper examines the situation as seen from a legal point of view.     

Effects of Group Practice of the Transcendental Meditation Program on Preventing Violent Crime in Washington,D.C.: Results of the National Demonstration Project,June--July 1993

This paper reports the results of a prospective experiment in which a group of approximately 4,000 participants in the Transcendental Meditation and TM-Sidhi programs of Maharishi Mahesh Yogi assembled in Washington, D.C., from June 7 to July 30, 1993. It was hypothesized that levels of violent crime in the District of Columbia would fall substantially during the Demonstration Project, as a result of the group's effect of increasing coherence and reducing stress in the collective consciousness of the District. A 27-member Project Review Board comprising independent scientists and leading citizens approved the research protocol and monitored the research process. Weekly crime data was derived from database records provided by the District of Columbia Metropolitan Police Department (DCMPD), which are used in the FBI Uniform Crime Reports. Statistical analysis considered the effect of weather variables, daylight, historical crime trends and annual patterns in the District of Columbia, as well as trends in neighboring cities. Consistent with previous research, levels of homicides, rapes and assaults (HRA crimes) correlated with average weekly temperature. Robberies approximately followed an annually recurring cycle. Time series analysis of 1993 data, controlling for temperature, showed that HRA crimes dropped significantly during the Demonstration Project, corresponding with increases in the size of the group; the maximum decrease was 23.3% (p < 2 × 10–9) [24.6% using a longer baseline, with 1988--1993 data (p < 3 × 10–5)], coincident with the peak number of participants in the group during the final week of the assembly. When the same period in each of the five previous years was examined, no significant decreases in HRA crimes were found. Robberies did not decrease significantly. However, a model that jointly estimated the effect of the Demonstration Project on both HRA crimes and robberies showed a significant reduction in violent crimes overall of 15.6% (p = 0.0008). Further analysis showed that the effect of the coherence-creating group on reducing HRA crimes could not be accounted for by additional police staffing. The time series analysis for HRA crimes gave results that are highly robust to alternative model specifications, and showed that the effect of the group size was cumulative and persisted after the Demonstration Project ended. Also, calculation of the steady state gain based on the time series model predicted that a permanent group of 4,000 coherence-creating experts in the District would have a long-term effect of reducing HRA crimes by 48%.     

The queer periphery: sexual deviancy and the cultural understanding of space

The association of normative sexuality with the geographical center and sexual deviancy with the geographical periphery represents a pattern of thinking that has stayed with us in different guises throughout history. The article traces this pattern and some of its complex ramifications from the ancient Greeks to the present.     

Providing Spatial Data for Secondary Analysis: Issues and Current Practices Relating to Confidentiality

Spatially explicit data pose a series of opportunities and challenges for all the actors involved in providing data for long-term preservation and secondary analysis—the data producer, the data archive, and the data user. We report on opportunities and challenges for each of the three players, and then turn to a summary of current thinking about how best to prepare, archive, disseminate, and make use of social science data that have spatially explicit identification. The core issue that runs through the paper is the risk of the disclosure of the identity of respondents. If we know where they live, where they work, or where they own property, it is possible to find out who they are. Those involved in collecting, archiving, and using data need to be aware of the risks of disclosure and become familiar with best practices to avoid disclosures that will be harmful to respondents.

MANAGING ACADEMIC INTERDISCIPLINARY RESEARCH PROJECTS*

This field study provides variables that can be used by practitioners as action levers and by future researchers as the basis for theoretical development. Conclusions from relevant literature and findings from interviews with interdisciplinary research management identified forty variables that were viewed as important to interdisciplinary research project success. After adjusting the data for reliability attenuation, these variables were further analyzed to identify the best prediction equation. The findings suggested that project age or the longevity of the project and open discussion of disagreements were the best predictors of performance.     

Somebody versus nobody: An exploration of the role of celebrity status in an election

This study examines the role celebrity status may play in potential voters’ evaluation of a political candidate presented in a newspaper article. Participants indicated greater intention to vote for a candidate who was a recognizable Hollywood actor than an unknown candidate in a political race, regardless of how substantive the political information provided about the candidate was. This suggests that familiarity with a celebrity can act as a heuristic in peripheral processing. Younger people were more likely to vote for a celebrity candidate than older voters, but how liberal or conservative participants are was not a significant factor in the decision to vote for the celebrity. Nor did participants’ need for cognition or level of political involvement predict intention to vote for the celebrity, suggesting that celebrity status is meaningful to motivated and thoughtful voters as well as those who are less motivated and informed. The possibility is raised that this could be an indication of celebrity status being used as a component of deliberate political decision-making, and future research in this direction is suggested.     

Convergence of Heavy-tailed Monte Carlo Markov Chain Algorithms

Abstract.  In this paper, we use recent results of Jarner & Roberts ( Ann. Appl. Probab., 12, 2002, 224) to show polynomial convergence rates of Monte Carlo Markov Chain algorithms with polynomial target distributions, in particular random-walk Metropolis algorithms, Langevin algorithms and independence samplers. We also use similar methodology to consider polynomial convergence of the Gibbs sampler on a constrained state space. The main result for the random-walk Metropolis algorithm is that heavy-tailed proposal distributions lead to higher rates of convergence and thus to qualitatively better algorithms as measured, for instance, by the existence of central limit theorems for higher moments. Thus, the paper gives for the first time a theoretical justification for the common belief that heavy-tailed proposal distributions improve convergence in the context of random-walk Metropolis algorithms. Similar results are shown to hold for Langevin algorithms and the independence sampler, while results for the mixing of Gibbs samplers on uniform distributions on constrained spaces are rather different in character.