Probabilistic Analysis of Dam Accidents Worldwide: Risk Assessment for Dams of Different Purposes in OECD and Non-OECD Countries with Focus on Time Trend Analysis

This study presents probabilistic analysis of dam accidents worldwide in the period 1911–2016. The accidents are classified by the dam purpose and by the country cluster, where they occurred, distinguishing between the countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and nonmember countries (non-OECD without China). A Bayesian hierarchical approach is used to model distributions of frequency and severity for accidents. This approach treats accident data as a multilevel system with subsets sharing specific characteristics. To model accident probabilities for a particular dam characteristic, this approach samples data from the entire data set, borrowing the strength across data set and enabling to model distributions even for subsets with scarce data. The modelled frequencies and severities are combined in frequency-consequence curves, showing that accidents for all dam purposes are more frequent in non-OECD (without China) and their maximum consequences are larger than in OECD countries. Multipurpose dams also have higher frequencies and maximum consequences than single-purpose dams. In addition, the developed methodology explicitly models time dependence to identify trends in accident frequencies over the analyzed period. Downward trends are found for almost all dam purposes confirming that technological development and implementation of safety measures are likely to have a positive impact on dam safety. The results of the analysis provide insights for dam risk management and decision-making processes by identifying key risk factors related to country groups and dam purposes as well as changes over time.     

Inequality Assessment by Probabilistic Development Indices

Social Indicators Research - This paper analyses the Human Development Index (HDI) time series from 2010 to 2017. An alternative index is studied, which combines the same components of the HDI by...     

Albanian and Polish Migration to Italy: The Micro‐Processes of Policy,Implementation and Immigrant Survival Strategies1

This article examines how undocumented immigrants take advantage or react to the windows of opportunity opened to them by immigration policy design and implementation practices in the country of destination. The study concentrates on the case of Albanian and Polish immigrants in Italy. Looking into the policy provisions regarding entry, stay and immigrant employment in Italy, as well as the practices of implementation adopted by the public administration, we study how immigrants prepare and execute their migration plans, how they find employment once in Italy, and how they adapt their plans to the institutional and social environments of the host country as well as their own wishes and needs. We thus highlight the micro‐level of the migration phenomenon and the dynamic relationship between policy design, implementation and immigrant strategies.     

DISCRIMINATION, BAYESIAN UPDATING OF EMPLOYER BELIEFS, AND HUMAN CAPITAL ACCUMULATION

This article proposes a dynamic labor market discrimination model based on Bayesian updating of beliefs by the employer. The employer forms initial beliefs of worker ability conditional on group and updates his beliefs each period based on observed output. Inaccurate initial priors lead to diminished human capital investment among members of the undervalued group and may generate inequities lasting many periods or even permanently. Statistical discrimination models in which differing variances drive the inequity are special cases of the model.     

Norwegian lottery winners: Cautious realists

The study investigated 261 lottery winners of prizes of NKR 1 million (US $150,000) or more in the years 1987–91 in a postal survey. The modal Norwegian winners were middle-aged married men of modest education, living in small communities. Emotional reactions to winning were few, aside from moderate happiness and relief. Winners emphasized caution, emotional control and unconspicuous spending, e.g. paying debts and sharing with children. There was only a slight increase in economic spending. A wish for anonymity was frequent, together with fear of envy from others. Betting was modest both before and after winning. Experiences with winning were predominantly positive. Life quality was stable or had improved. An age trend was observed, accounting for more variance than any other variable. The older winners seemed to represent a puritan subculture of caution, modesty and emotional restraint. A slightly more impatient pattern of spending was characteristic of younger winners. The results support Kaplan's 1987 and others' findings that lottery winners are not gamblers, but self-controlled realists and that tenacious, negative cultural expectations to the contrary are myths, but perhaps also deterrents of uncontrolled behavior.     

From Intended to Actual and Beyond: A Cross‐Disciplinary View of (Human Resource Management) Implementation

Despite increasing interest in human resource management (HRM) implementation as an explanation for the association between HRM and firm performance, considerable confusion remains about what implementation means. In order to develop conceptual definitions of HRM implementation and implementation effectiveness, this study builds on three different literatures outside the HRM field (strategy, innovation, and change management), which have addressed this topic extensively. As a result, implementation is characterized as a dynamic process, involving the interaction among multiple actors, starting with the adoption of a new practice and ending with its routinization. This is distinguished from implementation effectiveness as an outcome of that process. The study helps to achieve construct clarity, hence providing a more solid basis for future research and allowing for a better consolidation of findings. The authors also develop an agenda for further research by reviewing a number of theoretical and methodological approaches that have been used in implementation research across fields, including HRM. Overall, the study aims to establish implementation research as a highly relevant academic and practical quest not only in HRM, but also in other management literatures.     

“Supportive” psychotherapy: A contemporary view

In this paper, a brief review of social work literature regarding the technique of psychotherapy serves as a bridge to introduce the way in which self-psychology and the systematic use of empathy as a mode of listening and responding, had effected the conduct of psychoanalytic psychotherapy. A clinical sample, taken from the treatment of a patient who was diagnosed as having a Borderline Condition, is being used to demonstrate that feeling understood firms up the self in a way that enhances introspection and permits the use of interpretations as the therapist's primary mode of communication. The clinical example also demonstrates that when the therapist maintains an empathic position, the patient, even in once weekly therapy, is likely to develop one of the selfobject transferences. Further, that when empathic interpretations are used as the therapist's primary interventions, structural changes are likely to occur in such a way that treatment results in true healing rather than in the fostering of a life-long dependency on the therapist. Only a brief reference is made to the usefulness of self-psychology to the treatment of patients with higher level psychic organization and the important part that anger plays in the process of psychoanalytic psychotherapy.The Shirley Greenberg Memorial Lecture, Delivered at Simmons College, School of Social Work, Boston, Massachusetts on June 9, 1983.     

Strength in Process: Using Concept Mapping to Inform Community Coalition Development

This study reports on the use of Concept Mapping to delineate a conceptual framework germane to the planning and initial formation of tri-county rural diabetes coalition in a southeast US community. The focus of the tricounty coalition is to reduce diabetes-related inequalities in vulnerable populations. After a review of pertinent literature on community coalitions, this article explicates Concept Mapping processes utilized to plan and organize the formation of a coalition, offers analyses of the results, and discusses implications for current and future practices pertaining to community coalition work.     

Unquestioned Answers or Unanswered Questions: Beliefs About Science Guide Responses to Uncertainty in Climate Change Risk Communication

In two experimental studies we investigated the effect of beliefs about the nature and purpose of science (classical vs. Kuhnian models of science) on responses to uncertainty in scientific messages about climate change risk. The results revealed a significant interaction between both measured (Study 1) and manipulated (Study 2) beliefs about science and the level of communicated uncertainty on willingness to act in line with the message. Specifically, messages that communicated high uncertainty were more persuasive for participants who shared an understanding of science as debate than for those who believed that science is a search for absolute truth. In addition, participants who had a concept of science as debate were more motivated by higher (rather than lower) uncertainty in climate change messages. The results suggest that achieving alignment between the general public's beliefs about science and the style of the scientific messages is crucial for successful risk communication in science. Accordingly, rather than uncertainty always undermining the effectiveness of science communication, uncertainty can enhance message effects when it fits the audience's understanding of what science is.