On some characteristics of China's population--analysis of the ten percent sampling tabulation of the 1982 third national population census

Advance results from the 1982 census of China are presented based on a 10 percent sample. Sections are included on age distribution, centenarians, marriage patterns, educational status, and the labor force. Several characteristics of China's population are described in this article, based on a 10% sampling tabulation of the production teams and resident groups of the whole country. Data are included for 100,380,000 people. The proportion of the population aged 0-14 is 33.60%, which marks a decline from figures in the 1964 census (40%). This decline is attributed to family planning and population control efforts. The median age is 22.91 years, which is 2.71 years older than that in the 1964 census. The % of the population aged 15-64 rose from 55.7% in 1964 to 61.5%. The dependency ratio dropped from 79.4% (1964) to 62.6%. There were 3,765 centenarians as of July, 1982; the overwhelming majority live in villages, and most (94.77%) are illiterate or semiliterate. The number of female centenarians is 2.4 times that of males. Marriages are comparatively stable in China. 63.6% of the population aged 15 and over are married, and .59% are divorced. The % of the population remaining single after age 50 is .21% for females, 2.97% for males. The average 1st marriage age is 22.80 years for females and 25.49 years for males. 60.35% of the people have had primary education or above; .44% are college graduates. In 1964, 33.58% of the population illiterate or semiliterate. At present, among people aged 12 and over, 31.90% are illiterate or semiliterate. The rural illiteracy rate is more than twice the urban rate. 51.94% of the total population is employed. Of these, 92.08% are engaged in manual labor. Males exceed females in all professions and occupations. The median age of the employed population is 30.84 years. The level of education among the employed is relatively low: 28.26% are illiterate or semiliterate, and 34.35% have had primary education only.     

Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management of Lahar Flow Threat

The 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines is considered one of the most violent and destructive volcanic activities in the 20th century. Lahar is the Indonesian term for volcanic ash, and lahar flows resulting from the massive amount of volcanic materials deposited on the mountain's slope posed continued post-eruption threats to the surrounding areas, destroying lives, homes, agricultural products, and infrastructures. Risks of lahar flows were identified immediately after the eruption, with scientific data provided by the Philippine Institute of Volcanology, the U.S. Geological Survey, and other research institutions. However, competing political, economic, and social agendas subordinated the importance of scientific information to policy making. Using systemic risk analysis and management, this article addresses the issues of multiple objectives and the effective integration of scientific techniques into the decision-making process. It provides a modeling framework for identifying, prioritizing, and evaluating policies for managing risk. The major considerations are: (1) applying a holistic approach to risk analysis through hierarchical holographic modeling, (2) applying statistical methods to gain insight into the problem of uncertainty in risk assessment, (3) using multiobjective trade-off analysis to address the issue of multiple decisionmakers and stakeholders in the decision-making process, (4) using the conditional expected value of extreme events to complement and supplement the expected value in quantifying risk, and (5) assessing the impacts of multistage decisions. Numerical examples based on ex post data are formulated to illustrate applications to various problems. The resulting framework from this study can serve as a general baseline model for assessing and managing risks of natural disasters, which the Philippines' lead agency-the National Disaster Coordinating Council (NDCC)-and other related organizations can use for their decision-making processes.     

Governance Structures,Coordination Mechanisms and Cognitive Models

This paper criticizes the current prevailing ways ofmodelling governance alternatives, and advocates theopportunity and feasibility of a reconceptualizationof governance forms as mixes or configurations ofsimpler and potentially disentangleablecomponents. These components are constituted by abundle of property rights and by a set of coordinationmechanisms. The paper draws on a previous effort atintegrating economic, organizational and sociologicaltheories of governance in a cognitive perspective(Grandori 1995a) and explicitates how some cognitivefoundations of organization theory can be revised tosustain a more fine-grained view of governance. Theimplications for organization design are illustratedin the final section through the solution of someempirical design problems, as well as through areinterpretation of known hybrid arrangements.     

One-dimensional optimal bounded-shape partitions for Schur convex sum objective functions

Consider the problem of partitioning n nonnegative numbers into p parts, where part i can be assigned n_i numbers with n_i lying in a given range. The goal is to maximize a Schur convex function F whose ith argument is the sum of numbers assigned to part i. The shape of a partition is the vector consisting of the sizes of its parts, further, a shape (without referring to a particular partition) is a vector of nonnegative integers (n₁,..., n_p) which sum to n. A partition is called size-consecutive if there is a ranking of the parts which is consistent with their sizes, and all elements in a higher-ranked part exceed all elements in the lower-ranked part. We demonstrate that one can restrict attention to size-consecutive partitions with shapes that are nonmajorized, we study these shapes, bound their numbers and develop algorithms to enumerate them. Our study extends the analysis of a previous paper by Hwang and Rothblum which discussed the above problem assuming the existence of a majorizing shape. This research is partially supported by ROC National Science grant NSC 92-2115-M-009-014.     

Snake parasitism in an urban old-growth forest

Urban-associated changes can have immediate or long-term consequences on animal populations. Such changes may be assessed through parasite prevalence and abundance in wildlife hosts, as urbanization can influence parasitism and disease transmission in wildlife. Snakes are widespread and diverse vertebrates that often persist in urban environments; however, parasitism of snakes in urban environments has yet to be studied, leaving the roles of snakes in parasite transmission uncharacterized. Field ecology, microscopy, molecular techniques, and geographic information science (GIS) were integrated to characterize parasitism of snakes in an urban old-growth forest park. The species, sex, mass, length, location, and prevalence of ecto-, hemo-, and fecal parasites were determined for 34 snakes of 6 species. Ectoparasites (mite), hemoparasites (Hepatozoon spp.), and fecal parasites (Entamoeba spp., Trichomonas spp., Strongloides spp., and an unidentified helminth) were detected in snakes and 64.7?% of snakes were infected by at least one of these parasites. Parasite infections were generally not related to the sex, age, or body condition of snakes. The locations of infected snakes were used to produce risk maps indicating where parasite prevalence is predicted to be greatest. The analysis of these maps indicated that snakes with fecal parasites were closer than non-infected snakes to the edge of the forest. This study confirms that snakes may be important parasite hosts or reservoirs in parasite transmission pathways in urban environments and it provides an integrative multidisciplinary approach that may be used to monitor parasitism dynamics in other urban wildlife areas.     

洛必答法则使用技巧及注意事项浅析

洛必答法则是求解极限的一个非常重要的方法,一般教材的编写,只是着重例题类型的分类专门讨论,在技巧的讨论上着墨较少,文章则从洛必答法则使用技巧以及注意事项方面针对一些实例做出浅析.     

Gambling-related problems across life domains: an exploratory study of non-treatment-seeking weekly gamblers

This study uses content analysis to provide a qualitative exploration of how life roles are affected by frequent (i.e. at least weekly) gambling, based on in-depth interviews with a community sample of 161 non-treatment-seeking frequent gamblers. Over half (51.6%) of the participants indicated problems associated with gambling and 131 examples were identified. The majority of problems were relational (50.4%), followed by financial (19.8%), work (13.7%), and school related (8.4%). Slightly less than half of participants (41.7%) reported losses due to gambling and 92 examples were provided. The most frequently reported loss was identity related (54.3%), which included self-esteem/shame (38.0%), estrangement from family (34.0%), estrangement from friends (16.0%), and estrangement from work colleagues (6.0%). Additional losses included health (29.3%) and financial (8.7%). Almost two-thirds of participants (64.6%) reported difficulty concentrating in family (18.4%), work (16.8%), and school (9.6%) activities, whereas general concentration problems comprised an additional 48.8% of the examples provided. Half of participants (49.1%) discussed behavioral withdrawal due to gambling, which included withdrawal from work (44.3%), relationships (24.5%), school (15.1%), and personal (6.6%) activities. These findings paint a complex picture of how gambling interferes with different life roles for some frequent gamblers, identifying important areas for future research and practice.     

Reflective Supervision for Child Protection Practice – Reaching Beneath the Surface

This paper describes a model of reflective supervision for child protection practice that is informed by psychoanalytic theory. Eileen Munro promotes the idea of depth in practice, referring to the skills and knowledge required to undertake the work. Her reports highlight the importance of supervision to provide a thinking space for practitioners where reflection can take place. This paper will explore the importance of supervision in more depth and describe how psychoanalytic ideas can help us understand the complexities of our work with families, anchoring us to a solid theoretical base and helping to make sense of the maelstrom of feelings that are stirred in us as well as in our colleagues and clients.     

At the threshold of retirement: From all-absorbing relations to self-actualization

To investigate the complexities of the retirement process, the present article draws on a case study of Eva, a Swedish woman who “awakened” from all-absorbing relations. It considers the ways in which retirement can enable liberation from patriarchal kinship structures and embodied values of respectability. The aim is to illuminate how deep, embodied values can become conscious and explicit during precarious life situations and transitional phases. The relation between the Swedish welfare state, an I-we balance, and gender equity values are illuminated. These analytical dimensions support the analysis by providing insights into the ways in which individuals embody and use cultural and social structures when they aim to manage unpredictability and to create change toward self-actualization.     

Flood Catastrophe Model for Designing Optimal Flood Insurance Program: Estimating Location‐Specific Premiums in the Netherlands

As flood risks grow worldwide, a well‐designed insurance program engaging various stakeholders becomes a vital instrument in flood risk management. The main challenge concerns the applicability of standard approaches for calculating insurance premiums of rare catastrophic losses. This article focuses on the design of a flood‐loss‐sharing program involving private insurance based on location‐specific exposures. The analysis is guided by a developed integrated catastrophe risk management (ICRM) model consisting of a GIS‐based flood model and a stochastic optimization procedure with respect to location‐specific risk exposures. To achieve the stability and robustness of the program towards floods with various recurrences, the ICRM uses stochastic optimization procedure, which relies on quantile‐related risk functions of a systemic insolvency involving overpayments and underpayments of the stakeholders. Two alternative ways of calculating insurance premiums are compared: the robust derived with the ICRM and the traditional average annual loss approach. The applicability of the proposed model is illustrated in a case study of a Rotterdam area outside the main flood protection system in the Netherlands. Our numerical experiments demonstrate essential advantages of the robust premiums, namely, that they: (1) guarantee the program's solvency under all relevant flood scenarios rather than one average event; (2) establish a tradeoff between the security of the program and the welfare of locations; and (3) decrease the need for other risk transfer and risk reduction measures.