Predictors of Adolescent Participation in Organized Activities: A Five‐Year Longitudinal Study

This study examined (a) growth curves of youth participation in sports, performance and fine arts, and youth clubs throughout the high school years and (b) the associations between a series of predictors and the initial participation rates and growth over time. The predictors included individual, friend, and family factors. The moderating effect of youths' gender was also examined. Study participants were 272 youths (55% girls, M_age=12.4 years) and their parents. The predictors were assessed in Grade 6 and were based on reports by youths, parents, teachers, and classmates. Participation in organized activities was assessed annually from Grades 7 to 10. Altogether, the findings revealed that participation in sports, performance and fine arts, and youth clubs remains stable across the high school years. However, interindividual differences were found in the participation growth curves. This variation was predicted by individual, friend, and family factors, mostly with respect to sports activities.     

The World's Changing Human Capital Stock: Multi‐State Population Projections by Educational Attainment

This research note presents the first global population projections by educational attainment using methods of multi‐state population projection. The educational composition of the population by age and sex and educational fertility differentials are estimated for 13 world regions, and alternative scenarios are presented to the year 2030. One of these scenarios assumes constant educational transition rates and the other assumes that all regions reach Northern American levels of enrollment rates by 2030. The strong momentum or, as the case may be, inertia in the transformation of the educational composition of a population, seen in the results, arises because education is mostly acquired at a young age. The sex bias in the educational composition, especially evident in some developing countries, is unlikely to disappear soon. China has made remarkable progress in improving educational enrollment and as a consequence by 2030 is expected to have more educated people of working age than Europe and Northern America together.     

Extreme behaviour for bivariate elliptical distributions

The authors examine the asymptotic behaviour of conditional threshold exceedance probabilities for an elliptically distributed pair (X, Y) of random variables. More precisely, they investigate the limiting behaviour of the conditional distribution of Y given that X becomes extreme. They show that this behaviour differs between regularly and rapidly varying tails.     

Using Uncertainty Analysis to Improve Consistency in Regulatory Assessments of Criteria Pollutant Standards

Regulatory impact analyses (RIAs), required for new major federal regulations, are often criticized for not incorporating epistemic uncertainties into their quantitative estimates of benefits and costs. “Integrated uncertainty analysis,” which relies on subjective judgments about epistemic uncertainty to quantitatively combine epistemic and statistical uncertainties, is often prescribed. This article identifies an additional source for subjective judgment regarding a key epistemic uncertainty in RIAs for National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS)—the regulator's degree of confidence in continuation of the relationship between pollutant concentration and health effects at varying concentration levels. An illustrative example is provided based on the 2013 decision on the NAAQS for fine particulate matter (PM_2.5). It shows how the regulator's justification for setting that NAAQS was structured around the regulator's subjective confidence in the continuation of health risks at different concentration levels, and it illustrates how such expressions of uncertainty might be directly incorporated into the risk reduction calculations used in the rule's RIA. The resulting confidence-weighted quantitative risk estimates are found to be substantially different from those in the RIA for that rule. This approach for accounting for an important source of subjective uncertainty also offers the advantage of establishing consistency between the scientific assumptions underlying RIA risk and benefit estimates and the science-based judgments developed when deciding on the relevant standards for important air pollutants such as PM_2.5.     

Ideology in Management Studies

Ideology is a core and contested concept in the social sciences, but also long deployed in management research to highlight the political, embedded and/or obscuring nature of ideas. Indeed, many would argue that management itself is inherently ideological in legitimating or privileging managerial interests and concealing other groups and ways of organizing. In the first systematic review of how ideology has been conceptualized in management studies, this paper explores its diverse and changing meanings in order to develop and sustain the concept. It is based on a heuristic review of 175 articles and 41 books published between 1956 and 2018. Further developing categories used in the social sciences around its role, we found views of ideology as: (1) domination; (2) legitimation; (3) interpretation; (4) integration; and (5) normative logic. In addition, emerging perspectives were identified where ideology was (6) an object of critique or (7) fantasy structuring social reality. We describe, illustrate and evaluate these often internally diverse and interrelated perspectives, as well as comparing them with sometimes competing notions within the management field, such as discourse, culture and legitimation. We also bring together the different approaches and argue for a pluralist, but not infinitely flexible, approach to the concept. In doing so, we identify research agendas for ideology within management and organization studies.     

Religiosity and Fertility Intentions: Can the Gender Regime Explain Cross-Country Differences?

Research on the relationship between religiosity and fertility intentions revealed substantial cross-national differences. In some countries, a strong and positive effect of religiosity on fertility intentions was found, while in others, the effect was weaker or not significant, and the reasons underlying these cross-national differences are still unclear. The aim of this article is to explain these macro-level differences from the perspective of the prevailing gender regime. We argue that in countries with more traditional regimes, a stronger effect of religiosity on fertility intentions could be expected than in countries with a more egalitarian view. We make use of the first wave of the Generations and Gender Survey and incorporate data from a total of 12 European countries in our analysis. We examine the influence of gender regime according to various macro-level indicators on gender attitudes and gender equality using meta-regression analyses. We also conduct robustness checks using other indicators such as the Gender Development Index. Our results reveal that the gender regime is only able to explain these differences in certain situations, specifically those relating to the long-term fertility intentions of men.