Uncertainty of Population Risk Estimates for Pathogens Based on QMRA or Epidemiology: A Case Study of Campylobacter in the Netherlands

Epidemiology and quantitative microbiological risk assessment are disciplines in which the same public health measures are estimated, but results differ frequently. If large, these differences can confuse public health policymakers. This article aims to identify uncertainty sources that explain apparent differences in estimates for Campylobacter spp. incidence and attribution in the Netherlands, based on four previous studies (two for each discipline). An uncertainty typology was used to identify uncertainty sources and the NUSAP method was applied to characterize the uncertainty and its influence on estimates. Model outcomes were subsequently calculated for alternative scenarios that simulated very different but realistic alternatives in parameter estimates, modeling, data handling, or analysis to obtain impressions of the total uncertainty. For the epidemiological assessment, 32 uncertainty sources were identified and for QMRA 67. Definitions (e.g., of a case) and study boundaries (e.g., of the studied pathogen) were identified as important drivers for the differences between the estimates of the original studies. The range in alternatively calculated estimates usually overlapped between disciplines, showing that proper appreciation of uncertainty can explain apparent differences between the initial estimates from both disciplines. Uncertainty was not estimated in the original QMRA studies and underestimated in the epidemiological studies. We advise to give appropriate attention to uncertainty in QMRA and epidemiological studies, even if only qualitatively, so that scientists and policymakers can interpret reported outcomes more correctly. Ideally, both disciplines are joined by merging their strong respective properties, leading to unified public health measures.     

UK Government Communication: The Cameron years and their ongoing legacy

This paper chronicles in detail, analyses and draws conclusions about the development of the UK Government Communication Service (GCS) from the election of the Coalition Government led by David Cameron in May 2010, to his resignation following the referendum vote to leave the European Union (EU) on 23rd June 2016. Looking at the radical changes introduced within a historical context, the paper also provides a conceptual model of Government communication from the point where it became a recognisably government-wide service in 1956 to the period under examination.The methodological approach to this paper is qualitative using case study as the main method. A variety of data collection methods were used: ethnographic, including non-participant and participant observation, in-depth, semi-structured interviews with six senior managers in the Government Communication Service (GCS), five senior operational managers and two external experts. This primary research is supplemented by secondary sources including the academic literature and Government papers most of which are in the public domain, but some of which the author had privileged access to.Context is provided through an overview of the challenges facing the UK Government in the recent past and currently, a brief literature review and background on the philosophy and origins of Government Communication in the UK along with changes in the civil service more broadly. Then the structural and operational changes introduced During the Cameron years are presented. These changes, their impact and implications are discussed in context and conclusions drawn. A novel historiological, conceptual model of four chronological stages of UK Government communication presented and this, along with the detailed analysis of the Cameron years, is its original contribution.     

Nano Risk Analysis: Advancing the Science for Nanomaterials Risk Management

Scientists, activists, industry, and governments have raised concerns about health and environmental risks of nanoscale materials. The Society for Risk Analysis convened experts in September 2008 in Washington, DC to deliberate on issues relating to the unique attributes of nanoscale materials that raise novel concerns about health risks. This article reports on the overall themes and findings of the workshop, uncovering the underlying issues for each of these topics that become recurring themes. The attributes of nanoscale particles and other nanomaterials that present novel issues for risk analysis are evaluated in a risk analysis framework, identifying challenges and opportunities for risk analysts and others seeking to assess and manage the risks from emerging nanoscale materials and nanotechnologies. Workshop deliberations and recommendations for advancing the risk analysis and management of nanotechnologies are presented.     

Assessment of the developmental needs of children in need: Estonian child protective workers' case reflections

Child protective workers must be able to evaluate children's developmental needs in order to assess problems and delays. Skilful and comprehensive assessment leads to outcomes for children that promote their well‐being and development. This paper presents the findings of a qualitative study on a sample of Estonian child protective workers that investigated their assessments of the developmental needs of children in cases with child protection concerns. Only half of the child protective workers considered some dimension of the child's developmental needs in their assessment, suggesting a profound need to incorporate a developmental assessment framework and implement training of such in Estonia to increase child protective workers' competencies to conduct consistently comprehensive assessments.     

Students at St. Joseph's College: Why they are Survivors

Abstract

The 1985–86 academic year was the year of the ACHA Task Force on AIDS, and it also was the first year in which the Northwestern University mental health staff conducted psychotherapy with students wherein AIDS was an issue. We might consider this a “baseline year.” In order to document the first step along what is certain to become a long road ahead, the author reviews the 21 out of 800 cases where the issue of AIDS was discussed, even minimally. Seven cases were summarized to illustrate the spectrum of AIDS concerns and therapist interventions. The review of cases revealed a tendency to split the knowledge of risk from the apprehension of the meaning and emotional significance of one's behavior. This disavowal tended to occur in therapists also.

The psychological, medical, and psychiatric literature on AIDS was reviewed in order to provide a context for the case review. The author examines some of the psychotherapeutic and psychoeducational issues faced by therapists in their work with students during this developing epidemic and the concomitant consciousness raising that is occurring.     

Feasibility of a Telephone Follow-Up on Use of Emergency Contraceptive Pills in a College Health Center

Abstract

The authors examined the feasibility and effectiveness of a telephone follow-up procedure on use of emergency contraceptive pills (ECP) at a college health center. They made 264 telephone calls to the 97 women who had received ECPs during one 16-week academic semester and were successful in reaching 65 (67%) of the women, who responded with information about their experiences with ECPs. The women demonstrated a high rate of adherence to the medical regimen and reported very few side effects from ECPs; a majority said that ECPs did not affect their ability to carry out daily activities. On weighing the relative absence of problems following ECP distribution against the time, effort, and cost required to reach just over two thirds of the women, the researchers concluded that an ECP telephone follow-up procedure was neither cost-effective nor particularly useful.     

New HEAVY Models for Fat-Tailed Realized Covariances and Returns

ABSTRACT

We develop a new score-driven model for the joint dynamics of fat-tailed realized covariance matrix observations and daily returns. The score dynamics for the unobserved true covariance matrix are robust to outliers and incidental large observations in both types of data by assuming a matrix-F distribution for the realized covariance measures and a multivariate Student's t distribution for the daily returns. The filter for the unknown covariance matrix has a computationally efficient matrix formulation, which proves beneficial for estimation and simulation purposes. We formulate parameter restrictions for stationarity and positive definiteness. Our simulation study shows that the new model is able to deal with high-dimensional settings (50 or more) and captures unobserved volatility dynamics even if the model is misspecified. We provide an empirical application to daily equity returns and realized covariance matrices up to 30 dimensions. The model statistically and economically outperforms competing multivariate volatility models out-of-sample. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.     

Relations of Temperament to Maladjustment and Ego Resiliency in At‐risk Children

The relations of control/regulation‐related temperamentally based dispositions (effortful control (EC), impulsivity, and approach/avoidance) to externalizing problems and personality ego resiliency were examined in a sample of 467 children (M age = 7.46 years), some of whom were children of alcoholics (COAs). In addition, we examined if the relations of temperamental regulation/control to maladjustment/ego resiliency were moderated by COA status or sex of the child. In general, regulated, controlled temperament was negatively related to externalizing problems and EC was positively related to ego resiliency. Relations between a problematic temperament and externalizing problems were stronger and sometimes only found for COAs, especially male COAs. Ego resiliency was positively related to high father‐reported approach for boys who were not sons of alcoholics. In addition, COA status was related to high impulsivity, approach behavior, and externalizing problems and low EC.     

The Assessment of Elaborated Role‐play in Young Children: Invisible Friends,Personified Objects,and Pretend Identities

Role‐play (i.e., pretending in which children imagine and act out the part of another individual) was assessed with child interviews and parent questionnaires about invisible friends, personified objects, and pretend identities in a sample of 208 young children. Children who engaged in role‐play did not differ from other children in age or vocabulary comprehension. However, they were better able to generate a pretend conversation than other children and were rated by their parents as less shy. The overall pattern of results suggests that the capacity to interact with imaginary others (in and out of the lab) is more closely associated with individual differences in personality than developmental level.     

Framing the Problem of Sex Trafficking

News media play an important role in explaining the issue of sex trafficking and may influence discourse among the public and policymakers. Understanding the ways that mass media address sex trafficking has implications for the news industry and the global status of women. This study, a quantitative content analysis, analyzed news coverage of sex trafficking in major US newspapers to understand how the issue was framed during a year of coverage. Using Entman's typology to classify the function of frames, the study focused on how news coverage defined the problem of sex trafficking and identified the remedy. The study found that news coverage of trafficking was overwhelmingly framed as a crime issue (episodic not thematic) and proposed no remedies. Most news coverage favored official sources. Survivors of trafficking and their advocates were the least heard-from sources. The authors argue ultimately that if media are to fulfill their watchdog role where trafficking is concerned, a wider range of news frames and sources is needed.