Threshold Estimation via Group Orthogonal Greedy Algorithm

A threshold autoregressive (TAR) model is an important class of nonlinear time series models that possess many desirable features such as asymmetric limit cycles and amplitude-dependent frequencies. Statistical inference for the TAR model encounters a major difficulty in the estimation of thresholds, however. This article develops an efficient procedure to estimate the thresholds. The procedure first transforms multiple-threshold detection to a regression variable selection problem, and then employs a group orthogonal greedy algorithm to obtain the threshold estimates. Desirable theoretical results are derived to lend support to the proposed methodology. Simulation experiments are conducted to illustrate the empirical performances of the method. Applications to U.S. GNP data are investigated.     

A comparison of bootstrap method and Edgeworth expansion in approximating the distribution of sample variance — one sample and two sample cases

The performance of the bootstrap method and the Edgeworth expansion in approximating the distribution of sample variance are compared when the data are from a non-normal population. Both approximations are very good. so long as the parent population is close to normal.     

Order statistics from extreme value distribution,i: tables of means,variances and covariances

Let X¹, X², …, Xⁿ be a random sample of size n from an extreme value distribution and X^1:n less than or equal X^2:n less than or equal … less than or equal X^n:n be the order statistics ob-tained from this sample. Tables of the means, variances, and covariances of the order statistics for samples of size n are given for n = 1(1)15(5)30. The computational formulae and procedure used and some checks employed are explained.     

Comparison of powers for the sphericity tests using both the asymptotic distribution and the bootstrap

The asymptotic distributions of two tests for sphericity:the locally most powerful invariant test and the likelihood ratio test are derived under the general alternaties ∑?σ² I. The powers of these two tests are then compared when the data are from a trivariate normal population. The bootstrap method is also used to obtain the powers and the powers obtained by this method agree with those from the asymptotic distributions.     

On the calculations of the maximum likelihood estimates for the polynomial spline regression model with unknown knots and AR(1) errors

Asymptotic distributions of the maximum likelihood estimators of the regression coefficients and knot points for the polynomial spline regression models with unknown knots and AR(1) errors have been derived by Chan (1989). Chan showed that under some mild conditions the maximum likelihood estimators, after suitable standardization, asymptotically follow normal distributions as n diverges to infinity. For the calculations of the maximum likelihood estimators, iterative methods must be applied. But this is not easy to implement for the model considered. In this paper, we suggested an alternative method to compute the estimates of the regression parameters and knots. It is shown that the estimates obtained by this method are asymptotically equivalent to the maximum likelihood estimates considered by Chan.     

Modelling stochastic volatility using generalized t distribution

In modelling financial return time series and time-varying volatility, the Gaussian and the Student-t distributions are widely used in stochastic volatility (SV) models. However, other distributions such as the Laplace distribution and generalized error distribution (GED) are also common in SV modelling. Therefore, this paper proposes the use of the generalized t (GT) distribution whose special cases are the Gaussian distribution, Student-t distribution, Laplace distribution and GED. Since the GT distribution is a member of the scale mixture of uniform (SMU) family of distribution, we handle the GT distribution via its SMU representation. We show this SMU form can substantially simplify the Gibbs sampler for Bayesian simulation-based computation and can provide a mean of identifying outliers. In an empirical study, we adopt a GT–SV model to fit the daily return of the exchange rate of Australian dollar to three other currencies and use the exchange rate to US dollar as a covariate. Model implementation relies on Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms using the WinBUGS package.     

Peakedness for weighted sums of symmetric random variables

In this paper, we provide sufficient conditions on weighted coefficients under which the peakedness comparison between weighted sums of independent random variables can be carried out. These results extend and enrich the existing peakedness results in the literature including those presented by Proschan (1965) and Ma (1998).     

Using the EM algorithm for Bayesian variable selection in logistic regression models with related covariates

We develop a Bayesian variable selection method for logistic regression models that can simultaneously accommodate qualitative covariates and interaction terms under various heredity constraints. We use expectation-maximization variable selection (EMVS) with a deterministic annealing variant as the platform for our method, due to its proven flexibility and efficiency. We propose a variance adjustment of the priors for the coefficients of qualitative covariates, which controls false-positive rates, and a flexible parameterization for interaction terms, which accommodates user-specified heredity constraints. This method can handle all pairwise interaction terms as well as a subset of specific interactions. Using simulation, we show that this method selects associated covariates better than the grouped LASSO and the LASSO with heredity constraints in various exploratory research scenarios encountered in epidemiological studies. We apply our method to identify genetic and non-genetic risk factors associated with smoking experimentation in a cohort of Mexican-heritage adolescents.