Simulating involvement in complex situations

A model for the process of resolution of complex issues involving many participants with differing preferences for outcomes has recently been proposed [3]. This paper describes the use of a simulation procedure based on this model as a means of preparing those involved in a complex issue for their part in its resolution. Details of the simulation procedure are given first. Practical experience with the use of the procedure is described in the latter part of the paper.     

Determinants of Retirement Timing Expectations in the United States and Australia: A Cross-National Comparison of the Effects of Health and Retirement Benefit Policies on Retirement Timing Decisions

Data from the U.S. Health and Retirement Study (N = 2,589) and the Australian Household Income and Labour Dynamics survey (N = 1,760) were used to compare the macro-level policy frameworks on individual retirement timing expectations for pre–baby boomers (61+ years) and early baby boomers (45 to 60 years). Australian workers reported younger expected age of retirement compared to the U.S. sample. Reporting poor health was more strongly associated with younger expected retirement age in the United States than in Australia. Cohort and gender differences in the United States were found for the effect of private health insurance on younger expected age at retirement. Our results draw attention to how cross-national comparisons can inform us on the effects of policies on retirement expectations among older workers.     

Analysis in support of strategic policy making

Policy making involves choice between alternatives in situations that are usually very complex. The process of choice in such situations is not such that a straightforward analytical procedure can be prescribed yielding a uniquely rational solution. However, decision problems arising in policy making situations can be investigated using methods based on recent developments in game and metagame theory. This methodology can form the basis of a rational decision structure of the type envisaged by Diesing that can be incorporated in the day-to-day work of most organizations.     

Models for decision-making in the public sector

The public sector is composed of a heterogeneous selection of undertakings which, for a variety of economic, political and historic reasons, are under direct government control. The considerable differences between these undertakings, combined with a paucity of common characteristics, has resulted in a variety of decision-making techniques being employed. In many cases there is an affinity with private sector firms, and techniques technically akin to the profit maximisation model are adopted although social welfare considerations supplant notions of financial returns. As with the private sector, textbook models are frequently abandoned to make way for more pragmatic criteria when informational or computational problems become severe. Additional to these undertakings using techniques parallel to those of the private sector, there are others for which specific decision-making models have been developed. These are mainly in areas where effective demand is considered inappropriate as a method of allocation and appraisal. Finally, there is some evidence that, as the multi-dimensional nature of public sector decisions becomes more widely accepted, the notion of satisficing is gradually gaining acceptance replacing that of maximising.