Refusal to Answer Specific Questions in a Survey: A Case Study

It is well known that non ignorable item non response may occur when the cause of the non response is the value of the latent variable of interest. In these cases, a refusal by a respondent to answer specific questions in a survey should be treated sometimes as a non ignorable item non response. The Rasch-Rasch model (RRM) is a new two-dimensional item response theory model for addressing non ignorable non response. This article demonstrates the use of the RRM on data from an Italian survey focused on assessment of healthcare workers’ knowledge about sudden infant death syndrome (that is, a context in which non response is presumed to be more likely among individuals with a low level of competence). We compare the performance of the RRM with other models within the Rasch model family that assume the unidimensionality of the latent trait. We conclude that this assumption should be considered unreliable for the data at hand, whereas the RRM provides a better fit of the data.     

Nonparametrie recursive estimator for mean residual life and vitality function under dependence conditions

In this paper, we develop a nonparametrie recursive estimator for the vitality and mena residual life function, based on kernel density estimators under mixing dependence conditions. The consistency and asymptotic normality of the estimator are established, under suitable regularity conditions. It is also shown that the Integrated Mean Squared Error converges to zero. The paper is concluyed with some simulation results.     

The Exponentiated G Poisson Model

We study a new family of distributions defined by the minimum of the Poisson random number of independent identically distributed random variables having a general exponentiated G distribution. Some mathematical properties of the new family including ordinary and incomplete moments, quantile and generating functions, mean deviations, order statistics and their moments, reliability, and Shannon entropy are derived. Maximum likelihood estimation of the model parameters is investigated. Two special models of the new family are discussed. We perform an application to a real data set to show the potentiality of the proposed family.     

The performance of the truncated mixed control chart

Abstract

When the mixed chart proposed by Aslam et al. (2015 Aslam, M., M. Azam, N. Khan, and C.-H. Jun. 2015. A mixed control chart to monitor the process. International Journal of Production Research 53 (15):4684–93. doi:10.1080/00207543.2015.1031354.[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) is in use, the sample items are classified as defective or not defective and, depending on the number of defectives, the quality characteristic X of the sample items are also measured. In this case, an Xbar chart decides the state of the process. The previous conforming/non-conforming classification truncates the X distribution and, because of that, the mathematical development to obtain the ARLs is complex. Aslam et al. (2015 Aslam, M., M. Azam, N. Khan, and C.-H. Jun. 2015. A mixed control chart to monitor the process. International Journal of Production Research 53 (15):4684–93. doi:10.1080/00207543.2015.1031354.[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) didn’t pay attention to the fact that the X distribution is truncated and, due to that, they obtained incorrect ARLs.     

HERD BEHAVIOR IN FINANCIAL MARKETS: AN EXPERIMENT WITH FINANCIAL MARKET PROFESSIONALS

We study herd behavior in a laboratory financial market with financial market professionals. An important novelty of the experimental design is the use of a strategy‐like method. This allows us to detect herd behavior directly by observing subjects' decisions for all realizations of their private signal. In the paper, we compare two treatments: one in which the price adjusts to the order flow in such a way that herding should never occur, and one inwhich the presence of event uncertainty makes herding possible. In the first treatment, subjects seldom herd, in accordance with both the theory and previous experimental evidence on student subjects. A proportion of subjects, however, engage in contrarianism, something not accounted for by the theory. In the second treatment, the proportion of herding decisions increases, but not as much as the theory would suggest. Moreover, contrarianism disappears altogether. In both treatments, in contrast with what theory predicts, subjects sometimes prefer to abstain from trading, which affects the process of price discovery negatively. (JEL: C92, D82, G14)     

Stability of risk preferences and the reflection effect of prospect theory

Are risk preferences stable over time? To address this question we elicit risk preferences from the same pool of subjects at two different moments in time. To interpret the results, we use a Fechner stochastic choice model in which the revealed preference of individuals is governed by some underlying preference, together with a random error. We take cumulative prospect theory as the underlying preference model (Kahneman and Tversky, Econometrica 47:263–292, 1979; Tversky and Kahneman, Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 5:297–323, 1992). We observe that the aggregate pattern of preferences is very similar in both sessions, and it matches the results reported in the literature. Most subjects are risk averse for gains, and risk seeking for losses. However, the subjects that jointly agree with the reflection effect of prospect theory are around 50%. The percentage of individuals that change their responses across sessions is quite high, 63%. Estimating the stochastic choice model we find that 72% of the subjects have an underlying preference which agrees with the reflection effect of prospect theory. The remaining 28% are mainly classified as risk averse for both gains and losses. The results reinforce the empirical validity of the reflection effect. Deviations from the reflection effect can be attributed to noise, as well as to the existence of a fraction of risk averse subjects.     

The Dynamics of Welfare Policy‐Making in South Korea: Social Movements as Policy Entrepreneurs*

This paper analyzes the role of social movements in the creation and evolution of a welfare state in South Korea. We begin with a theoretical overview of the existing works on policy change, highlighting concepts such as ideas, policy paradigms, and windows of opportunity. We then examine state institutions, hegemonic policy paradigms, and the specific dynamics of welfare policy‐making during South Korea’s authoritarian period (1961–1987). Next, characterizing the democratic transition in 1987 and the economic crisis of 1997–1998 as “windows of opportunity,” we probe how social movements emerged as “policy entrepreneurs” and played crucial roles in building welfare institutions and promoting welfare policies. In particular, we focus on the role of social movements in legislating the National Basic Livelihood Security Act in 1999 and consolidating fragmented health insurance systems in 2000. We conclude that social movements in democratized South Korea have assumed the role of policy entrepreneurs, filling the vacuum left by the central government and elite bureaucrats in the field of social welfare policy‐making.     

Testing uniformity for the case of a planar unknown support

A new test is proposed for the hypothesis of uniformity on bi‐dimensional supports. The procedure is an adaptation of the “distance to boundary test” (DB test) proposed in Berrendero, Cuevas, & Vázquez‐Grande (2006). This new version of the DB test, called DBU test, allows us (as a novel, interesting feature) to deal with the case where the support S of the underlying distribution is unknown. This means that S is not specified in the null hypothesis so that, in fact, we test the null hypothesis that the underlying distribution is uniform on some support S belonging to a given class ${\cal C}$ . We pay special attention to the case that ${\cal C}$ is either the class of compact convex supports or the (broader) class of compact λ‐convex supports (also called r‐convex or α‐convex in the literature). The basic idea is to apply the DB test in a sort of plug‐in version, where the support S is approximated by using methods of set estimation. The DBU method is analysed from both the theoretical and practical point of view, via some asymptotic results and a simulation study, respectively. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 40: 378–395; 2012 © 2012 Statistical Society of Canada     

The binomial work-health in the transit of Curitiba city

The working activity in traffic of the big cities complex interacts with the environment is often in unsafe and unhealthy imbalance favoring the binomial work - health. The aim of this paper was to analyze the relationship between work and health of taxi drivers in Curitiba, Brazil. This cross-sectional observational study with 206 individuals used a questionnaire on the organization's profile and perception of the environment and direct observation of work. It was found that the majority are male, aged between 26 and 49 years and has a high school degree. They are sedentary, like making a journey from 8 to 12 hours. They consider a stressful profession, related low back pain and are concerned about safety and accidents. 40% are smokers and consume alcoholic drink and 65% do not have or do not use devices of comfort. Risk factors present in the daily taxi constraints cause physical, cognitive and organizational and can affect your performance. It is concluded that the taxi drivers must change the unhealthy lifestyle, requiring a more efficient management of government authorities for this work is healthy and safe for all involved.     

Radiological emergency response for community agencies with cognitive task analysis, risk analysis, and decision support framework

Radiological nuclear emergency responders must be able to coordinate evacuation and relief efforts following the release of radioactive material into populated areas. In order to respond quickly and effectively to a nuclear emergency, high-level coordination is needed between a number of large, independent organizations, including police, military, hazmat, and transportation authorities. Given the complexity, scale, time-pressure, and potential negative consequences inherent in radiological emergency responses, tracking and communicating information that will assist decision makers during a crisis is crucial. The emergency response team at the Angra dos Reis nuclear power facility, located outside of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, presently conducts emergency response simulations once every two years to prepare organizational leaders for real-life emergency situations. However, current exercises are conducted without the aid of electronic or software tools, resulting in possible cognitive overload and delays in decision-making. This paper describes the development of a decision support system employing systems methodologies, including cognitive task analysis and human-machine interface design. The decision support system can aid the coordination team by automating cognitive functions and improving information sharing. A prototype of the design will be evaluated by plant officials in Brazil and incorporated to a future trial run of a response simulation.