Difficulties with age estimation of internet images of south‐east Asian girls

Community paediatricians are increasingly asked to provide expert opinion on internet child pornography related to ‘sex tourism’, mostly in south‐east Asian countries. The girls involved are often prepubertal, and the main legal question is to establish whether they are under 13 years of age. This paper provides a review of the literature related to this question. Although there are limited data of age of menarche from the countries at risk of ‘sex tourism’, one recent study from the Philippines showed that the mean age of menarche was similar to the mean age of British girls born between 1982 and 1986. There are no data in the above countries on the early pubertal changes in breast development, but studies from India and China suggested that these might be more prolonged than for British girls. In particular, the interval between B2 stage (early pubertal breast development) and menarche was nearly 3 years in these developing countries, compared with 2 years for the British girls. Maternal malnutrition and girls small for gestational age at birth resulted in an earlier menarche, while chronic malnutrition, severe enough to cause stunting in preschool years, caused a delay in menarche. Taking into account information from the existing studies, we estimated that 97.5% of south‐east Asian girls will show pubertal changes of B2 stage by the age of 13.7 years. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Temporal Aspects of Facial Displays in Person and Expression Perception: The Effects of Smile Dynamics,Head-tilt,and Gender

Recent work suggests that temporal aspects of facial displays influence the perception of the perceived authenticity of a smile. In the present research, the impact of temporal aspects of smiles on person and expression perception was explored in combination with head-tilt and gender. One hundred participants were shown different types of smiles (slow versus fast onset) in combination with three forms of head-tilt (none, left, or right) exhibited by six computer-generated male and female encoders. The encoders were rated for perceived attractiveness, trustworthiness, dominance, and the smiles were rated for flirtatiousness and authenticity. Slow onset smiles led to more positive evaluations of the encoder and the smiles. Judgments were also significantly influenced by head-tilt and participant and encoder gender, demonstrating the combined effect of all three variables on expression and person perception.

The Education Effect: Higher Educational Qualifications are Robustly Associated with Beneficial Personal and Socio-political Outcomes

Level of education is a predictor of a range of important outcomes, such as political interest and cynicism, social trust, health, well-being, and intergroup attitudes. We address a gap in the literature by analyzing the strength and stability of the education effect associated with this diverse range of outcomes across three surveys covering the period 1986–2011, including novel latent growth analyses of the stability of the education effect within the same individuals over time. Our analyses of the British Social Attitudes Survey, British Household Panel Survey, and International Social Survey Programme indicated that the education effect was robust across these outcomes and relatively stable over time, with higher education levels being associated with higher trust and political interest, better health and well-being, and with less political cynicism and less negative intergroup attitudes. The education effect was strongest when associated with political outcomes and attitudes towards immigrants, whereas it was weakest when associated with health and well-being. Most of the education effect appears to be due to the beneficial consequences of having a university education. Our results demonstrate that this beneficial education effect is also manifested in within-individual changes, with the education effect tending to become stronger as individuals age.     

Fear Attenuated and Affection Augmented: Male Self-Presentation in a Romantic Context

We investigated whether males use facial behavior strategically in order to increase their desirability as romantic partners. Participants were led to believe that a female research assistant who was either attractive or unattractive was observing them. Their task was to watch three short films: an excerpt from a horror film, a video of infants, and a neutral film. Males who thought they were being observed by the attractive assistant frowned less (AU4) while watching the horror film and smiled more (AU12, with and without AU6) while watching the infant film. Assistant attractiveness did not affect males’ facial behavior while they were watching the neutral film.     

Generalized linear mixed models for ordered responses in complex multilevel structures: effects beneath the school or college in education

Summary.  The complexities of educational processes and structure and the need for disentangling effects beneath the level of the school or college are discussed. Ordinal response multilevel crossed random-effects models for educational grades are introduced. Weighted random effects for teacher contributions are then added. Estimation methodology is reviewed. Specially written macros for quasi-likelihood with second-order terms are described. The application discusses General Certificate of Education at advanced level grades cross-classified by student and teaching group within a number of institutions. The methods handle teacher effects where several teachers contribute to provision and where each teacher deals with several groups. Some methodological lessons are drawn for sparse data and the use of extra-multinomial variation. Developments of the analysis yield conclusions about the sources of variation in educational progress, and particularly the effect of teachers.     

ACADEMIC TENURE, POSTTENURE EFFORT, AND CONTRACTUAL DAMAGES

In this article we explore the incentive properties of academic tenure relative to alternatives that might be substitutes for tenure, in particular contractual damages. We emphasize the role of tenure in providing an incentive for incumbent faculty to reveal the characteristics of recruits and to maintain their own performance posttenure. Our results suggest that tenure is just one of many mechanisms potentially able to achieve honest revelation. (JEL I2 , K0 , L2 )     

Asymptotic Inefficiency of Mean-Correction on Parameter Estimation for a Periodic First-Order Autoregressive Model

A common practice in time series analysis is to fit a centered model to the mean-corrected data set. For stationary autoregressive moving-average (ARMA) processes, as far as the parameter estimation is concerned, fitting an ARMA model without intercepts to the mean-corrected series is asymptotically equivalent to fitting an ARMA model with intercepts to the observed series. We show that, related to the parameter least squares estimation of periodic ARMA models, the second approach can be arbitrarily more efficient than the mean-corrected counterpart. This property is illustrated by means of a periodic first-order autoregressive model. The asymptotic variance of the estimators for both approaches is derived. Moreover, empirical experiments based on simulations investigate the finite sample properties of the estimators.