On Optimal Rules of Persuasion

A speaker wishes to persuade a listener to accept a certain request. The conditions under which the request is justified, from the listener's point of view, depend on the values of two aspects. The values of the aspects are known only to the speaker and the listener can check the value of at most one. A mechanism specifies a set of messages that the speaker can send and a rule that determines the listener's response, namely, which aspect he checks and whether he accepts or rejects the speaker's request. We study mechanisms that maximize the probability that the listener accepts the request when it is justified and rejects the request when it is unjustified, given that the speaker maximizes the probability that his request is accepted. We show that a simple optimal mechanism exists and can be found by solving a linear programming problem in which the set of constraints is derived from what we call the L‐principle.     

Maternal Age and Child Development

Although the consequences of teen births for both mothers and children have been studied for decades, few studies have taken a broader look at the potential payoffs—and drawbacks—of being born to older mothers. A broader examination is important given the growing gap in maternal ages at birth for children born to mothers with low and high socioeconomic status. Drawing data from the Children of the NLSY79, our examination of this topic distinguishes between the value for children of being born to a mother who delayed her first birth and the value of the additional years between her first birth and the birth of the child whose achievements and behaviors at ages 10–13 are under study. We find that each year the mother delays a first birth is associated with a 0.02 to 0.04 standard deviation increase in school achievement and a similar-sized reduction in behavior problems. Coefficients are generally as large for additional years between the first and given birth. Results are fairly robust to the inclusion of cousin and sibling fixed effects, which attempt to address some omitted variable concerns. Our mediational analyses show that the primary pathway by which delaying first births benefits children is by enabling mothers to complete more years of schooling.     

Parental employment circumstances and children’s academic progress

Using data from the 1996 Survey of Income and Program Participation, we examine 4476 school-age children in 2569 families with matched pairs of married fathers and mothers to study children’s academic progress as a function of fathers’ and mothers’ employment circumstances, with a particular focus on involuntary employment separations. We draw on weekly work histories, collected at 4-month intervals, to characterize parental employment circumstances over a two-year period. Results find no significant associations between mothers’ employment experiences and children’s academic progress, even in households where mothers earn more than fathers. In contrast, fathers’ experience of involuntary employment separations is associated with children’s academic progress. On average, fathers’ experience of involuntary employment separations is associated with a higher likelihood of children’s grade repetition and suspension/expulsion from school. However, subgroup analyses reveal this association only in households where mothers earn more than fathers. We conclude that the adverse impacts of fathers’ involuntary employment separations in two-parent families have less to do with income losses than with family dynamics.     

Values in Middle Childhood: Social and Genetic Contributions

Theories of value development often identify adolescence as the period for value formation, and cultural and familial factors as the sources for value priorities. However, recent research suggests that value priorities can be observed as early as in middle childhood, and several studies, including one on preadolescents, have suggested a genetic contribution to individual differences in values. In the current study, 174 pairs of monozygotic and dizygotic seven‐year‐old Israeli twins completed the Picture‐based Value Survey for Children (PBVS–C). We replicated basic patterns of relations between value priorities and variables of socialization—gender, religiosity, and socioeconomic status—that have been found in studies with adults. Most important, values of Self‐transcendence, Self‐enhancement, and Conservation, were found to be significantly affected by genetic factors (29 percent, 47 percent, and 31 percent, respectively), as well as non‐shared environment (71 percent, 53 percent, and 69 percent, respectively). Openness to change values, in contrast, were found to be unaffected by genetic factors at this age and were influenced by shared (19 percent) and non‐shared (81 percent) environment. These findings support the recent view that values are formed at earlier ages than had been assumed previously, and they further our understanding of the genetic and environmental factors involved in value formation at young ages.     

INTERGENERATIONAL EFFECTS OF WELFARE REFORM: ADOLESCENT DELINQUENT AND RISKY BEHAVIORS

This study investigates effects of welfare reform in the United States on the next generation. Most previous studies of effects of welfare reform on adolescents focused on high‐school dropout of girls or fertility; little is known about how welfare reform has affected other teenage behaviors or boys. We use a difference‐in‐difference‐in‐differences framework to identify gender‐specific effects of welfare reform on skipping school, fighting, damaging property, stealing, hurting others, smoking, alcohol, marijuana, and other illicit drugs. Welfare reform led to increases in delinquent behaviors of boys as well as increases in substance use of boys and girls, with substantially larger effects for boys. (JEL K42, I12, I31, I38)     

Introduction: Welfare Reform: Preliminary Research and Unanswered Questions

This article summarizes the 1996 welfare reform act and introduces a set of key questions that remain unanswered as initial results concerning the effects of welfare reform are being analyzed and discussed by policymakers andresearchers. We introduce the collection of articles presented in this issue of the Journal of Social Issues, which are devoted to the topic of welfare reform and its potential ramifications for the well-being of families. The articles are grouped into three broad areas that represent major topics of interest to researchers, policy analysts, and others concerned with how welfare reform affects the lives of women and families: the politics of welfare reform, barriers to employment, and the impact of welfare reform on family life.     

The warlord as arbitrageur

This article seeks to generate a more precise understanding of the emergence and perpetuation of warlords. First, it offers a simple, intuitive, and empirically grounded conceptual definition of warlordism. Second, it argues that the primary factor contributing to the success of warlords is the ability to take advantage of price differentials for political, economic, and cultural goods across terrains—in a word, to arbitrage. Third, it illustrates this model with a case study of Khun Sa (1934–2007), the self-proclaimed Shan freedom-fighter and “king” of Burma’s heroin trade. Finally, it suggests that the international community rethink its commitment to the norm of sovereignty in order to combat the proliferation of such non-state violence-wielders.