A statistical uncertainty principle for estimating the time of a discrete shift in the mean of a continuous time random process

The purpose of this article is to present a statistical uncertainty principle that can be used when localizing a single change in the mean of a band-limited stationary random process. The statistical model investigated is a continuous time process that experiences a shift in its mean. This continuous time process is presumed to be sampled using an ideal low-pass filter. The least squares estimate of the location of the change in mean is asymptotically Gaussian. The standard deviation of the least squares estimate of the location of the change-point provides a physical limit to the accuracy of the estimate of the time of the mean shift which cannot be bettered.     

The Foster–Greer–Thorbecke (FGT) poverty measures: 25 years later

Twenty-five years ago, the FGT class of decomposable poverty measures was introduced in Foster, Greer, and Thorbecke (Econometrica 52:761–776, 1984). The present study provides a retrospective view of the FGT paper and the subsequent literature, as well as a brief discussion of future directions. We identify three categories of contributions: to measurement, to axiomatics, and to application. A representative subset of the literature generated by the FGT methodology is discussed and grouped according to this taxonomy. We show how the FGT paper has played a central role in several thriving literatures and has contributed to the design, implementation, and evaluation of prominent development programs; the breadth of its impact is evidenced by the many topics beyond poverty to which its methodology has been applied. We conclude with a selection of prospective research topics.     

Repairing a Spoiled Identity: An Application of Attribution Theory

Abstract

This exploratory study applies attribution concepts in the investigation of self-presentational tactics. We contend that self-attributions following failure are used by an actor not only to restore self-esteem but to mitigate negative social consequences for the self. Data for this study derive from a role-playing experiment in which subjects were asked to explain a failing academic performance. Weiner's control dimension and Kelley's covariation model are used to codify subjects' explanations of their performance. As predicted, individuals overwhelmingly attributed failure to uncontrollable causes. Further, the vast majority of the information provided by subjects about their performance consisted of claims of high distinctiveness which, according to Kelley, lead to external causal attributions. Effects of sex of actor and of influence target are investigated, and some suggestive patterns emerge. Based on this study, we suggest that the conceptual framework of attribution theory can benefit research on interpersonal tactics.     

Practical modeling strategies for unbalanced longitudinal data analysis

In practice, data are often measured repeatedly on the same individual at several points in time. Main interest often relies in characterizing the way the response changes in time, and the predictors of that change. Marginal, mixed and transition are frequently considered to be the main models for continuous longitudinal data analysis. These approaches are proposed primarily for balanced longitudinal design. However, in clinic studies, data are usually not balanced and some restrictions are necessary in order to use these models. This paper was motivated by a data set related to longitudinal height measurements in children of HIV-infected mothers that was recorded at the university hospital of the Federal University in Minas Gerais, Brazil. This data set is severely unbalanced. The goal of this paper is to assess the application of continuous longitudinal models for the analysis of unbalanced data set.     

ESTIMATION, PREDICTION AND INFERENCE FOR THE LASSO RANDOM EFFECTS MODEL

The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) can be formulated as a random effects model with an associated variance parameter that can be estimated with other components of variance. In this paper, estimation of the variance parameters is performed by means of an approximation to the marginal likelihood of the observed outcomes. The approximation is based on an alternative but equivalent formulation of the LASSO random effects model. Predictions can be made using point summaries of the predictive distribution of the random effects given the data with the parameters set to their estimated values. The standard LASSO method uses the mode of this distribution as the predictor. It is not the only choice, and a number of other possibilities are defined and empirically assessed in this article. The predictive mode is competitive with the predictive mean (best predictor), but no single predictor performs best across in all situations. Inference for the LASSO random effects is performed using predictive probability statements, which are more appropriate under the random effects formulation than tests of hypothesis.     

Trauma and Origins: Post-Holocaust Genealogists and the Work of Memory

In the 1970s, as children of Holocaust survivors reached adulthood, many began to excavate, piece together, and re-fashion their fractured family histories. This movement achieved momentum in the 1980s and 1990s, as the so-called “second generation” moved into middle age. Drawing from data gleaned from participant observation on a listserv for children of survivors and from interviews, I argue that those who engage in post-Holocaust genealogy are searching for coherent narratives that place their own origin in the context of the families into which they were born. By seeking, borrowing from and selectively appropriating traces of the past, they are using them as raw material in the production of new stories about the past and, by implication, the present.

“As Far as They Knew I Came from France”: Stigma,Passing, and Not Speaking about the Holocaust

Today we recognize that storytelling plays an important role in helping survivors of traumatic episodes such as sexual abuse, military combat, or genocide refashion a sense of self and “work through” their traumatic experiences. But before the Holocaust was named and widely acknowledged and the diagnosis of post‐traumatic stress had emerged, survivors of Hitler's genocidal policies struggled to tell their stories in a world that did not particularly wish to hear them. While most accounts of Holocaust survivors’ postwar experiences focus on themes of redemption, adjustment, and integration, my analysis of interviews with Holocaust survivors suggests during their first two decades living in the United States they were often silenced by individuals they encountered. I use Goffman's analysis of stigma to document how and why this silencing occurred, and with what consequences, providing an account of the interactions survivors had with family members, neighbors and acquaintances, and the strategies of identity management that survivors devised.