THE ECOLOGY OF AGING: NEIGHBORHOOD SATISFACTION IN AN OLDER POPULATION*

This paper explores the determinants of neighborhood satisfaction for a population of older persons. Here neighborhood satisfaction is presumed to be the result of a complicated process involving: objective qualities in the neighborhood, the psychological and physical state of the person making the evaluation, as well as the person's own subjective definitions of the neighborhood. The intent of this research is to weigh the significance of these objective neighborhood conditions, subjective definitions, and the individual's level of environmental docility for the determination of neighborhood satisfaction among the elderly. To investigate this issue a random sample of 1,185 respondents 60 years and older was interviewed in the Albany-Schenectady-Troy, New York SMSA. The data suggest that while all three general factors are significant in the production of neighborhood satisfaction, mental portraits of the neighborhood are the most significant source of neighborhood satisfaction. This finding indicates support for a synthesis of symbolic interactionist and traditional ecological models of environmental response. Clearly, for this sample, older persons sharing the same neighborhoods do not necessarily occupy the same environmental worlds.     

PREDICTING DIVORCE AT MARITAL THERAPY INTAKE: WIVES' DISTRESS AND THE MARITAL STATUS INVENTORY*

The Marital Status Inventory (MSI), a measure of divorce potential was given to couples in six independent samples. Scores from the five clinical sites and one marital enrichment sample (N = 241 couples) were used to provide adequate reliability, discriminant validity and predictive validity data. Compound probability for the five clinical sites supports the contention that, overall, wives' are more distressed than their husbands. The MSI was also able to identify couples who later divorced. However, the Guttman properties of the MSI, previously identified, were not replicated. Clinical implications of the higher wives' scores for prediction of divorce and marital therapy are discussed.     

A revised behavioral model of consumer durable demand

A general model of consumer demand for durable goods has recently been proposed by Pickering (1978,1981). Of particular note is the use of expectations of both personal financial and general economic conditions to capture the consumer's willingness to buy. However, it is argued first that these two expectations have Jointly interdependent rather than unique contributions to consumer confidence. In addition, it is proposed that the concept of expectations should be extended to specific product attributes as well. Pickering's model is subsequently revised to incorporate the conceptual modifications.     

Child abuse and neglect in North Carolina day care programs

A study of child abuse and neglect complaints in child day care programs revealed factors affecting the filing of complaints, as well as problems with the investigation of complaints filed with the North Carolina Office of Child Day Care Licensing. The authors specify the cause of the problems and offer recommendations for improvement.     

THE ESSENTIAL ELEMENTS OF SUPERVISORY SYSTEMS: A MODIFIED DELPHI STUDY

Few empirical data exist to demonstrate the efficacy of marriage and family therapy (MFT) training and supervision. In order to lay the foundation for a comprehensive model of MFT supervision and faciliate supervisory precess research, variables improtant to the outcome of MFT supervision were identified. A panel of AAMFT Approved Supervisors generated 771 variables thougth to be essential to superisory outcome and rate 398 of these variables as very improtant to the outcome of MFT supervision. The variables were collapsed into five categories and further divided into 37 conceptual clusters. The existing superisory literature tht supports the results of the study and implications of the study are discussed.     

Evaluating state regulation of private forest practices: What accomplishments at what costs

This paper summarizes research evaluating the cost and effectiveness of comprehensive state forest practice laws. These laws regulate forest management on private lands in seven of the United States with the goal of protecting a wide range of forest resources. Forest practice laws impose significant administrative costs on states and significant compliance costs on landowners and timber operators. Total state administration costs for 1984 are estimated at $10.1 million and total private sector compliance costs are estimated at $120.5 million, for a total regulation cost of $130.6 million. The resource protection effectiveness of state forest practice regulation is more difficult to quantify. However, a variety of indicators strongly suggest that regulation has led to significant improvements in forest resource conditions and has increased reforestation levels.     

The systems revolution

In this paper the author brings together a number of ideas which are presented more fully in his forthcoming book—Redesigning the Future (John Wiley and Sons, New York): This synthesis amounts to a digest of Part 1 of that book. The article is organized into 5 parts: The Systems Revolution; The Self-Control Problem; The Humanization Problem; The Environmentalization Problem and Science in the Systems Age.     

An Approach for Modeling Noncancer Dose Responses with an Emphasis on Uncertainty

This paper presents an approach for characterizing the probability of adverse effects occurring in a population exposed to dose rates in excess of the Reference Dose (RfD). The approach uses a linear threshold (hockey stick) model of response and is based on the current system of uncertainty factors used in setting RfDs. The approach requires generally available toxicological estimates such as No-Observed-Adverse-Effect Levels (NOAELs) or Benchmark Doses and doses at which adverse effects are observed in 50% of the test animals (ED₅₀s). In this approach, Monte Carlo analysis is used to characterize the uncertainty in the dose response slope based on the range and magnitude of the key sources of uncertainty in setting protective doses. The method does not require information on the shape of the dose response curve for specific chemicals, but is amenable to the inclusion of such data. The approach is applied to four compounds to produce estimates of response rates for dose rates greater than the RfD     

Population,swidden farming and the tropical environment

Swidden farming has been blamed for the degradation of tropical forest, where it is widely used. However, when the cropping period is short and the fallow period long, the system is shown to be ideally suited to this environment. But this entails a low population density. When this is exceeded, the fallow must be shortened, resulting in loss of forest through grassland invasion, or of the soil itself through erosion or laterization, as shown by modern examples and by the history of the Maya. The degradation blamed on swidden farming is thus not due to the system itself, but to overpopulation, in H.G. Wells's words, "the fundamental evil out of which all the others that afflicted the race arose."This paper is a shortened and updated version of a lecture given in the Department of Biological Anthropology, University of Oxford, on 6 November 1986.     

Environmental scanning for Social Services

This article describes the development of a process of systematic regional environmental scanning as part of strategic planning in the Ministry of Social Services (MSS) in British Columbia, over the 1987-1990 period. Social Services, a large regionalized social service organization, adopted a formal strategic planning process in early 1988. Ministry services are delivered in ten regions with widely varying characteristics. To ensure that this diversity is reflected in the planning process, it is essential that regional environmental information receive consideration. A simple format was developed and regional directors asked to consult with their staff and to scan their regions for issues that may impact the ministry over the medium term. The information obtained was presented by regional directors at a Senior Management Committee meeting and included in the ministry's annual Business Plan, a document which informs staff, contractors, stakeholders, and the community at large of the ministry's values, objectives, and operational goals. The inclusion of regional analyses adds useful information to the Plan. A second output of the planning process is the ministry budget. The systematic regional scans were found to be extremely useful to regional staff, other directors, and to the ministry executives while setting priorities.