An analysis of indirect mortality estimation

Abstract In this paper the robustness of Brass's child-survivorship indirect mortality estimation technique is investigated. An analytical method is developed for studying the error or bias caused in indirect mortality estimates by poor data, badly chosen model functions, and specific demographic assumptions that are often violated in practice. The resulting analytical expressions give insight into the rationale of indirect methods, the conditions under which they are robust, and the magnitude of errors that occur when specific assumptions are violated.     

PERFORMANCE OF THE EXPECTED UTILITY METHOD AND TWO OTHER NORMATIVE METHODS IN INSURANCE DECISION MAKING*

In an experiment, thirty-six professional insurance men employed the utility method, the worry method, and the comparison method in two insurance problems to determine the appropriate insurance coverage. It was found that the best act with the utility method almost always was no insurance, whereas the best act with the other two methods tended to be complete insurance. The utility method best act rarely agreed with the subject's actual preferred act, while the comparison method best act usually was the same or almost the same as the actual preferred act. While the worry method suggests that the subjects typically are risk averse, the utility functions obtained tend to show that the subjects typically are not risk averse.     

COMPUTER APPLICATIONS IN TEACHING ECONOMETRICS

In most econometrics courses the students are given limited exposure to the empirical applications of econometric theory. The use of canned programs would make it possible to cover more applied econometric work, and help prepare the students for more empirical work. The computer can be a valuable teaching aid for both instructor and student. The students will also gain valuable experience in the area of computer assisted data analysis. This paper discusses many of the programs appropriate for use in econometrics courses. Examples of problems using programs, and several alternative outlines of possible courses in applied econometrics are presented.     

Consumption Dynamics During Recessions

Are there times when durable spending is less responsive to economic stimulus? We argue that aggregate durable expenditures respond more sluggishly to economic shocks during recessions because microeconomic frictions lead to declines in the frequency of households' durable adjustment. We show this by first using indirect inference to estimate a heterogeneous agent incomplete markets model with fixed costs of durable adjustment to match consumption dynamics in PSID microdata. We then show that aggregating this model delivers an extremely procyclical Impulse Response Function (IRF) of durable spending to aggregate shocks. For example, the response of durable spending to an income shock in 1999 is estimated to be almost twice as large as if it occurred in 2009. This procyclical IRF holds in response to standard business cycle shocks as well as in response to various policy shocks, and it is robust to general equilibrium. After estimating this robust theoretical implication of micro frictions, we provide additional direct empirical evidence for its importance using both cross‐sectional and time‐series data.     

A Learning Curve Analysis of Expert System Use*

In this article, we study how an expert system affects novice problem solving in a financial risk analysis domain. We demonstrate that novice performance is improved after exposure to an expert system. Further, we show that novice performance continues to improve when the system is withdrawn. By comparing learning curves for people with exposure to those without, we can assess how much the system has benefitted its users. We demonstrate a quantitative methodology to measure the increment of learning due to the use of an information technology. We also explore the issue of how expertise is transferred from the system to the user.     

Parenting in the Context of Deportation Risk

Nearly 5.1 million children younger than age 18 live with at least one undocumented parent, about 7% of the U.S. child population. Between 2010 and 2013, an estimated 300,000 parents of U.S. citizen children were deported. Raising children in the context of deportation risk increases overall parenting stress for undocumented Latino parents. To investigate this and understand the experience of undocumented parenting, the authors interviewed 70 undocumented parents in two Southwest cities from 2012 to 2013. The authors frame their analysis using the lens of the problem of “illegality.” There are three domains of stressors associated with parenting in the context of deportation risk: trapped parenting, threat of family separation, and altered family processes. The authors discuss these findings in the context of the literature on undocumented families and parenting stress and connect these findings to the current sociopolitical context experienced by Latino families in the United States .     

Effects of Africentric Socialization on Psychosocial Outcomes in Black Girls: The Critical Role of Gender

African American social work scholars recommend rigorous research and evaluation of Africentric interventions as one approach to building culturally appropriate, evidence-based treatments for the Black community. Following this approach, this pilot study evaluates the Imani Rites of Passage program, a 15-week Africentric curriculum with 10 Black adolescent females (mean age = 12.40), comparing their pre- and post-intervention data to that of a no-intervention group of 13 Black males (mean age = 12.08). The program evaluation is based on the degree of correspondence between theory and the measurement model spelled out by the cognitive-cultural view of African-American identity. The findings for Black females were consistent with the cognitive-cultural model in some ways but not in others, and they were more complex than the predictions. Future Africentric interventions guided by the cognitive-cultural model must consider gender differences in the outcomes. Implications for social work research and practice are discussed.     

Psychodynamic Couple Therapy: A Practical Synthesis

This essay reviews the most significant contributions of psychodynamic thought to the field of couple therapy. It distills the work of numerous clinicians and researchers who, though writing from diverse perspectives, share fundamental assumptions and concerns. Rather than emphasizing differences between schools of thought, this paper mines their best contributions in a discussion of five central therapeutic targets: underlying issues, divergent subjective experiences, transferences, projective identification, and acceptance. Two detailed cases illustrate the benefits and techniques for targeting these five therapeutic domains. Video Abstract is found in the online version of the article .     

Long-Term Earnings Differentials Between African American and White Men by Educational Level

This paper investigates long-term earnings differentials between African American and white men using data that match respondents in the Survey of Income and Program Participation to 30 years of their longitudinal earnings as recorded by the Social Security Administration. Given changing labor market conditions over three decades, we focus on how racial differentials vary by educational level because the latter has important and persistent effects on labor market outcomes over the course of an entire work career. The results show that the long-term earnings of African American men are more disadvantaged at lower levels of educational attainment. Controlling for demographic characteristics, work disability, and various indicators of educational achievement does not explain the lower long-term earnings of less-educated black men in comparison to less-educated white men. The interaction arises because black men without a high school degree have a larger number of years of zero earnings during their work careers. Other results show that this racial interaction by educational level is not apparent in cross-sectional data which do not provide information on the accumulation of zero earnings over the course of 30 years. We interpret these findings as indicating that compared to either less-educated white men or highly educated black men, the long-term earnings of less-educated African American men are likely to be more negatively affected by the consequences of residential and economic segregation, unemployment, being out of the labor force, activities in the informal economy, incarceration, and poorer health.     

Household Debt and Adult Depressive Symptoms in the United States

This study used data from Waves 1 (1987–1989) and 2 (1992–1994) of the National Survey of Families and Households in the United States and a series of regression models, some of which included individual-specific fixed effects, to estimate associations of particular types and levels of debt with adult depressive symptoms. Results suggest that household debt is positively associated with greater depressive symptoms. However, this association appears to be driven by short-term (unsecured) debt; we found little evidence of associations with depressive symptoms for mid- or long-term debt. The link between short-term debt and depressive symptoms persisted with alternative estimation strategies, including defining debt in absolute and relative terms. Furthermore, this association was particularly concentrated among 51–64 year-old adults, those with a high school education or less, and those who were not stably married throughout the observation period. These findings suggest that short-term debt may have an adverse influence on psychological wellbeing, particularly for those who are less educated, approaching retirement age, or unmarried.