Out-of-Sample Forecast Tests Robust to the Choice of Window Size

This article proposes new methodologies for evaluating economic models’ out-of-sample forecasting performance that are robust to the choice of the estimation window size. The methodologies involve evaluating the predictive ability of forecasting models over a wide range of window sizes. The study shows that the tests proposed in the literature may lack the power to detect predictive ability and might be subject to data snooping across different window sizes if used repeatedly. An empirical application shows the usefulness of the methodologies for evaluating exchange rate models’ forecasting ability.     

The mixed evacuation problem

A dynamic network introduced by Ford and Fulkerson is a directed graph with capacities and transit times on its arcs. The quickest transshipment problem is one of the most fundamental problems in dynamic networks. In this problem, we are given sources and sinks. Then the goal of this problem is to find a minimum time limit such that we can send the right amount of flow from sources to sinks. In this paper, we introduce a variant of this problem called the mixed evacuation problem. This problem models an emergent situation in which people can evacuate on foot or by car. The goal is to organize such a mixed evacuation so that an efficient evacuation can be achieved. In this paper, we study this problem from the theoretical and practical viewpoints. In the first part, we prove the polynomial-time solvability of this problem in the case where the number of sources and sinks is not large, and also prove the polynomial-time solvability and computational hardness of its variants with integer constraints. In the second part, we apply our model to the case study of Minabe town in Wakayama prefecture, Japan.     

自然科学知识的积累对电子元器件产业发展的影响

假设研究活动存在与产品生命周期中的市场扩大现象相似的活跃化现象,按照时间序列对电子元器件领域的评审论文篇数和注册专利件数的增减情况进行了分析。由分析结果可知:在市场真正产生前,评审论文篇数和注册专利件数剧增;同时,在这些剧增的论文和专利中,有很多研究给商品化和商业化带来了巨大影响。这些与商品化和商业化有关的信息,不仅包括对产品制造业有用的信息,而且还包括对支撑产品制造业的设备产业同样有用的信息。因此,将本分析法作为考量新事业进入机会的客观方法推荐给大家。     

A critical examination of visualized femininity: selective inheritance and intensification of gender posing from historical painting to contemporary advertising

This study investigates the visual correspondences of gender posing behaviors, specifically exhibited by female figures, between historical European painting and contemporary American photographic advertising. While utilizing Erving Goffman’s Gender Advertisements as an analytical framework, the study focuses on the visual legacy of gender ritualization that is salient in contemporary mass media, proposing five semiotic codes to concretely analyze it. Although Goffman’s gender posing is traditionally associated with female vulnerability and indolence, the study proposes that such qualities are exploited as indicators of luxury within Western visual culture and advertising specifically. It seeks to deconstruct and re-frame the interconnected connotations of luxury and gender display, both expanding Goffman’s framework and providing a unique interpretive resource for critical readers of media texts.     

Intimate mobilities—International (transnational) marriage and migration: Japanese marriage migrants floating between Japan and Korea

In the past decade, intense mobility within Asia has led to increased international marriage (kokusai kekkon) in the region. A growing number of scholars have explored this phenomenon—called the intimate part of Asia—with a focus on foreign brides from emerging economies. Concerning international marriage between Japanese and Koreans, most research focuses on the Korean wives of Japanese husbands who reside in Japan, and little research has been conducted on the Japanese wives of Korean husbands. In this study, the postmigration experiences of Japanese marriage migrant women in South Korea are explored. Semistructured interviews were conducted in Korea with 13 participants. Drawing on the interview data, this article elucidates the trajectories of Japanese marriage migrants, focusing on subjective elements. The participants' accounts demonstrate that their experiences were intertwined with the media, politics, gender roles, parenting ideologies, and family relations. Their various emotional responses underline the ways such factors have shaped their lives.     

Income Comparison as a Determining Mechanism of Class Identification: A Quantitative and Simulation Study Using Japanese Survey Data

This paper questions whether personal income comparison explains the distributive gap between income and class identification by exploring the following two issues: empirical validity of income comparison as the determinant of class identification, and theoretical validity of income comparison for the distributive gap. For the first issue, we conduct a statistical analysis using data from the Social Stratification and Social Mobility surveys (1975–2005), and the Stratification and Social Psychology-I survey (2010). We find that the criteria for choosing reference groups changed historically from residential proximity to occupational equality. In addition, income comparison with sensitive to lower-income possessors and a distorted perception of income difference significantly affected class identification, except for the year of 1985. The simulation analysis employed to examine the second issue clarified that income comparison with the above-mentioned features yields a less skewed distribution compared to that of class identification. The data also indicates that the empirical conditions of income are satisfied for realization of this result. Thus, we could ascertain empirical and theoretical validity of income comparison as explanation for the distributive gap between income and class identification.     

In Control or Fatalistically Ruled? The Sense of Mastery among Working Canadians

Using data from a 2011 nationally representative sample of Canadian workers (N = 5,576), the present study evaluates the social–structural determinants of the sense of mastery. Three main contributions emerge. First, we document that each of the main components of socioeconomic status—education, income, occupation, and economic hardship—have distinct total, indirect, and net associations with mastery. The well‐educated report more mastery because of their higher earnings—but exposure to more role blurring and work–family conflict offset what would otherwise be their even higher levels of mastery. Second, job‐related demands and resources have largely independent associations with mastery, but our analyses also reveal some key areas of overlap. Third, role‐blurring activities—and their connections with work‐to‐family conflict and family‐to‐work conflict—offer unique expansions to the overall narrative of mastery, with unexpected explanatory and suppression effects. We interpret each of these observations in an effort to advance recent theoretical perspectives about mastery. À partir de données recueillies en 2011 auprès d'un échantillon représentatif national de travailleurs canadiens (n = 5,576), cette étude examine les déterminants sociostructurels de la maitrise de soi. Trois principales contributions découlent de cette étude. Premièrement, chaque composante du statut socioéconomique, soit l’éducation, le revenu, la profession de même que la précarité économique, a une association distincte et indirecte avec la maitrise de soi. Par exemple, les travailleurs instruits ressentent un plus grand sentiment de maitrise de soi dû à leur revenu supérieur. Toutefois, l'ambigüité de rôle et le conflit travail‐famille, plus fréquents chez ces derniers, atténuent cette relation. Deuxièmement, les demandes et les ressources liées au travail sont indirectement associées avec la maitrise de soi. Cependant, nos analyses démontrent que certains secteurs importants se chevauchent. Troisièmement, les liens entre les secteurs d'activités pour lesquelles il y a ambigüité de rôle et les conflits travail‐famille et les conflits famille‐travail permettent de mieux comprendre le concept de maitrise de soi chez les travailleurs canadiens. Nos analyses démontrent des effets inattendus explicatifs et de suppression. Nous interprétons chacune des ces observations en vue de faire avancer les perspectives théoriques récentes en ce qui a trait à la maitrise de soi.     

In-Sample or Out-of-Sample Tests of Predictability: Which One Should We Use?

It is widely known that significant in-sample evidence of predictability does not guarantee significant out-of-sample predictability. This is often interpreted as an indication that in-sample evidence is likely to be spurious and should be discounted. In this paper, we question this interpretation. Our analysis shows that neither data mining nor dynamic misspecification of the model under the null nor unmodelled structural change under the null are plausible explanations of the observed tendency of in-sample tests to reject the no-predictability null more often than out-of-sample tests. We provide an alternative explanation based on the higher power of in-sample tests of predictability in many situations. We conclude that results of in-sample tests of predictability will typically be more credible than results of out-of-sample tests.