Disaster risk and artificial intelligence: A framework to characterize conceptual synergies and future opportunities

Artificial intelligence (AI) methods have revolutionized and redefined the landscape of data analysis in business, healthcare, and technology. These methods have innovated the applied mathematics, computer science, and engineering fields and are showing considerable potential for risk science, especially in the disaster risk domain. The disaster risk field has yet to define itself as a necessary application domain for AI implementation by defining how to responsibly balance AI and disaster risk. (1) How is AI being used for disaster risk applications; and how are these applications addressing the principles and assumptions of risk science, (2) What are the benefits of AI being used for risk applications; and what are the benefits of applying risk principles and assumptions for AI-based applications, (3) What are the synergies between AI and risk science applications, and (4) What are the characteristics of effective use of fundamental risk principles and assumptions for AI-based applications? This study develops and disseminates an online survey questionnaire that leverages expertise from risk and AI professionals to identify the most important characteristics related to AI and risk, then presents a framework for gauging how AI and disaster risk can be balanced. This study is the first to develop a classification system for applying risk principles for AI-based applications. This classification contributes to understanding of AI and risk by exploring how AI can be used to manage risk, how AI methods introduce new or additional risk, and whether fundamental risk principles and assumptions are sufficient for AI-based applications.     

Nonparametric approaches for comparing three-period,two-treatment,four-sequence crossover designs

The paper describes nonparametric approaches for comparing three-period, two-treatment, four-sequence crossover designs through testing the hypothesis that the treatments are interchangeable. The proposed approaches are based on a model which incorporates, along with the direct treatment effects, self and mixed carryover effects. Related asymptotic results are obtained. Comparisons among the designs are made numerically with respect to type I error rate and power of the tests considering compound symmetry and autoregressive covariance structures of the response variables. Lengths of the confidence intervals of the treatment differences are also used to make comparative study among the designs.     

On stratified bivariate ranked set sampling for regression estimators

We investigate the relative performance of stratified bivariate ranked set sampling (SBVRSS), with respect to stratified simple random sampling (SSRS) for estimating the population mean with regression methods. The mean and variance of the proposed estimators are derived with the mean being shown to be unbiased. We perform a simulation study to compare the relative efficiency of SBVRSS to SSRS under various data-generating scenarios. We also compare the two sampling schemes on a real data set from trauma victims in a hospital setting. The results of our simulation study and the real data illustration indicate that using SBVRSS for regression estimation provides more efficiency than SSRS in most cases.     

Estimating the hazard functions of two alternately occurring recurrent events

Often two recurrent events of equal importance can occur alternately. The life-time patterns of the two events can then be of considerable interest. In this paper, we consider two such events, the inclusion and exclusion of players in a team sport, and study whether there is any inherent pattern in the time-lengths between these events. The life-time distributions are modelled and methods of estimating the model parameters suggested taking into account any relationship in the pattern of recurrence. The results are then applied to the inclusion and exclusion of players in the Indian national cricket team. As further illustration, a simulation study is made. Broad application areas are identified both in the introduction and conclusion.     

Stress-strength reliability estimation for exponentially distributed system with common minimum guarantee time

Abstract

In this article, we study the problem of estimating the stress-strength reliability, where the stress and strength variables follow independent exponential distributions with a common location parameter but different scale parameters. All parameters are assumed to be unknown. We derive the MLE, the UMVUE of the reliability parameter. We also derive the Bayes estimators considering conjugate prior distributions for the scale parameters and a dependent prior for the common location parameter. Monte Carlo simulations have been carried out to compare among the proposed estimators with respect to different loss functions.     

Professionalization and Hybridization Dynamics of Social Enterprises

VOLUNTAS: International Journal of Voluntary and Nonprofit Organizations - Most of the extant studies on social enterprises have taken a static view of institutional complexity and assumed conflict...     

Household Finance and Food Insecurity

Despite repeated expansions of federal food assistance, food insecurity and hunger continue to affect many Americans. While job loss and poverty are among major contributors, theoretical and empirical literature suggest that households’ ability to borrow and save might provide a buffer protecting from food insecurity. Using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, we tested whether liquidity constraint, asset inadequacy, and insolvency risk defined based on financial ratios could predict household food insecurity separately from the effects of income and program participation. Results showed that a household’s liquidity constraint and asset inadequacy were linked with increased risk of food insecurity at all income levels, although the association was strongest among poor households and those with incomes slightly above the federal food assistance eligibility threshold. Unlike indications from qualitative literature, financial constraint appeared to be an exogenous determinant of household food insecurity. Implications for financial practitioners and policymakers are discussed.     

Estimation op parameters in finite mixtures of exponential families from censored data

A general successive substitutions' scheme is developed to estimate parameters in a finite mixture of distributions from the exponential family, based on censored data. It is assumed that the data can be grouped in the first class and the number of observations in each of the remaining classes are known Examples from Poisson Exponential and Normal distributions are given A small simulation exercise has also been carried out for the mixture of two one parameter exponential population.     

Robust regression:a weighted least squares approach

Robust regression has not had a great impact on statistical practice, although all statisticians are convinced of its importance. The procedures for robust regression currently available are complex, and computer intensive. With a modification of the Gaussian paradigm, taking into consideration outliers and leverage points, we propose an iteratively weighted least squares method which gives robust fits. The procedure is illustrated by applying it on data sets which have been previously used to illustrate robust regression methods.It is hoped that this simple, effective and accessible method will find its use in statistical practice.