Labor Market Effects of Population Aging

Abstract. This paper analyses effects of population aging on the labor market and determines their broad implications for public policy. It takes Germany as an example, but it equally applies to the other large economies in Continental Europe. The paper argues that, alongside the amply discussed, demographically‐determined increase in the contribution and tax burden which is responsible for the ever widening gap between gross and disposable earnings, two other important areas of policy deserve greater attention. First, it is unlikely that the decline in the relative size of the economically active population will be offset by higher capital intensity. Labor productivity will need to increase over and above this mechanism in order to compensate for the impact of population aging on domestic production. Hence, we will need more education and training to speed up human capital formation. Second, the shift in the age structure will also change the structure of demand for goods. This, in turn, will have large effects on the pattern of employment across different sectors of the economy and will require a substantial increase in labor mobility in order to accommodate these structural changes.     

DISENFRANCHISEMENT IN LINGUISTICALLY DIVERSE SOCIETIES: THE CASE OF THE EUROPEAN UNION

We consider a linguistically diversified society and examine the notion of language disenfranchisement when some individuals are denied the full access to documents and political process in their native tongues. To calculate the disenfranchisement indices we use the Dyen percentage cognate matrix of linguistic distances between Indo‐European languages and apply survey and population data on language proficiency in the European Union. We then determine optimal sets of official languages that depend on society's sensitivity against disenfranchisement and comprehensiveness of the chosen language regime. We also discuss the language situation in the European Union after its last enlargement. (JEL: D70, O52, Z13)     

CONSUMER CREDIT: EVIDENCE FROM ITALIAN MICRO DATA

In this paper we analyse unique data on credit applications received by the leading provider of consumer credit in Italy (Findomestic). The data set covers a five‐year period (1995–1999) during which the consumer credit market rapidly expanded in Italy and a new law (the usury law) came into force that set a limit on interest rates charged to consumers. We compute behavioural changes by controlling for changes in the observable characteristics of the Findomestic clientele and argue that, under suitable identifying assumptions, these changes can be given a structural interpretation. If the usury shock is assumed to have affected credit supply but not credit demand—that is, if the usury law had a differential impact on the supply of various types of credit but a uniform impact on demand—then we can identify and estimate a demand equation. Our key finding is that demand is interest‐rate elastic, particularly in the more affluent North. (JEL: D14, E21, G21)     

Computer-aided content analysis: A short primer

This paper is a short introduction to computer-aided content analysis in which words or phrases are the basic units. The advantages of computer-aided content analysis are noted and some general issues in its use discussed. Several ways of manipulating text by computer are then illustrated, including ordered word frequency lists, key-word-in-context lists, concordances, classifications of text in terms of content categories, category counts, and category-based retrievals from text. Although examples are based on Democratic and Republican platforms in presidential campaigns, these techniques can be applied to texts from a variety of sources, including in-depth and open-ended interviews, fieldnotes, letters, speeches, newspapers, books, and diaries, to cite a few examples.This research was supported in part by Kurzweil Computer Products, Inc., a subsidiary of Xerox Corp. Sue Williamson of Kurzweil played a key role, and her generosity and help is gratefully acknowledged. Randi Lynn Miller assisted with data entry at an earlier phase of research. Additional support has been provided by ZUMA, the Center for Surveys, Methods, and Analysis, Mannheim, FRG. For helpful comments and suggestions, thanks to Tom Davenport, Peter Mohler, J. Zvi Namenwirth, Philip J. Stone, and especially one anonymous reviewer. Thanks also to Kathy Tenerowicz for research assistance and to Barbara Norman for editorial assistance.     

Some perspectives on women in therapy and women as therapists

A brief review of the major theories of female sexual and personality development is presented and the implications of these theories for the psychotherapeutic treatment of women is discussed. Alternatives to traditional (and often sexist) approaches are described. Finally, the way in which female therapists may differ from their male counterparts (especially in respect to female clients) is explored.     

JACKKNIFING THE GENERAL LINEAR MODEL

The aim of this paper is to investigate the problems of estimating a smooth function of the parameters in a general linear model and to clarify some of the points raised by Hinkley (1977) in connection with this problem. An example of the type of problem at hand is that of estimating the maximum (or minimum) mean value in a quadratic regression model. The estimator based on the least squares estimator of the parameters in the linear model is compared to the jackknife estimator and the weighted jackknife estimator proposed by Hinkley (1977). The asymptotic properties of the estimators are examined and their small sample properties are compared through simulation studies.     

Normative Embourgeoisement among Manual Workers: a Reexamination Using Longitudinal Data*

This research examines the validity of the normative embourgeoisement perspective—the familiar notion that manual workers are becoming middle class in their cognitive orientations. Data are used from ten national surveys between 1956 and 1976 to examine changes in middle class identification among manual and nonmanual workers. Contrary to some earlier research which examined only two time periods, the results indicate that middle class identification among manual workers has increased over time at a faster rate than among nonmanual workers. Thus, there is greater similarity between manuals and nonmanuals in their middle class identification. Contrary to the arguments of normative embourgeoisement, however, the socioeconomic status (i.e., education, income, and occupational prestige) gains of manuals relative to nonmanuals do not account for this increased similarity. The research shows the need to apply longitudinal tests to dynamic theoretical perspectives, and the potential problems involved in such tests when only two periods are examined.     

Strategic thinking—Dealing with uncertainty

Frameworks for strategic planning provide questions, but the answers depend on executives' strategic thinking. Three methods of strategic thinking are delineated. Assessment involves classification and modelling of the situation; problem identification and analysis involve goal formulation and strategy design; and synthesis involves inferences about assumptions, dialectical analysis and reframing. The methods provide executives with different ways of dealing with uncertainty. Either problem analysis of synthesis is used when objectives and the appropriate corrective action are certain. Problem identification is used when there is ambiguity about strategic direction, and assessment is a style adapted to ambiguity about both objectives and corrective action.     

Cooling it gets hot

Conflict is an inevitable part of work and relationships. How it is handled determines what can and cannot be accomplished personally, professionally, and organizationally. The pressures and complexities of health care interactions breeds conflicts that require constant, skillful negotiation. Increasingly, health care leaders are recognizing that proficiency at recognizing sources of friction before trouble flares up and at managing and resolving disputes that do break out is an essential part of their executive "toolbox." Resources are now widely available for acquiring fundamental knowledge of dispute prevention and negotiation techniques, and for locating and engaging reliable expertise when third-party intervention appears necessarily to reconcile apparently intractable differences.